PC Magazine’s Dan Costa has written an article entitled ‘TiVo Is Not Dead Yet’, in which he expresses his opinion that despite ‘conventional wisdom’ that has seem a lot of people chime in with doom and gloom predictions for TiVo’s future, TiVo actually has a solid chance to succeed. Of course, he says that this is if they were to take his advice, and he lays out four major rules for TiVo.

The first is “Play nice with cable providers“, and he mentions the work with Comcast and Cox, and that TiVo shouldn’t compete with cable companies. But he doesn’t mention the development of the Tru2Way-enabled TiVo which could be offered to both consumers and cable MSOs and support all of the advanced services. So I think TiVo is already doing this quite nicely.

Next is “Be a software vendor” where he tells TiVo to focus on software and forget the hardware. This has come up repeatedly, and TiVo has repeatedly explained why they need the hardware. Controlling the hardware allows them to innovate and offer new features. Note that neither the DirecTiVo nor the Comcast OCAP software support most of the features available on the standalone boxes. TiVo would be a much, much more limited product if they only produced software for other vendors’ hardware. Having the standalone hardware allows TiVo to innovate and to drag the competition, kicking and screaming, forward. It provides competitive pressure.

Third is “Don’t just watch TV“, in which he extols TiVo to go beyond TV with more deals like Rhapsody and YouTube. I don’t think that’s a problem, since he’s basically telling TiVo to do something they’ve repeatedly stated will be a cornerstone of their plans.

And last is “Be social“. This one I think is worth partially quoting, because I have said TiVo should do the same things:

Be social. With nearly four million very engaged subscribers, TiVo has one of the most active social networks around. The company already lets users make recommendations and share videos. TiVo should evolve as a platform for members to talk about programs, create their own content, and share media.

Yes, please! I started suggesting similar things a few years ago. Let friends setup TiVo-based social networks to share recordings. And if that’s too daring to start, how about letting us share Suggestions – let me Suggest that my friend’s TiVo record a specific show. “Hey, check this out.” Setup discussion boards where users can share ratings and discuss shows. Let us upload the Thumb Ratings from our TiVos and match us with others who have similar tastes. There is really so much TiVo could do to foster community involvement that it is overwhelming – but right now they aren’t really doing anything. And that’s really frustrating.

Oh, and in case Dan reads this:

I do have an ulterior motive for writing this column. Right now, using a TiVo box—assuming I can get CableCard to work—means losing about half of my high-definition channels. That isn’t a trade-off I am willing to make. If TiVo could make nice with Cablevision, I could have my high-definition Dwell and watch it, too.

I presume that’s due to Switched Digital Video (SDV). Two words: Tuning Resolver. The solution is already in the works.

Just in time for their conference call, TiVo has released their Q4 financial statement. Highlights:

- Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $1.0 million compared to a loss of $15.0 million in the year-ago quarter, exceeding guidance
- Fiscal year 2008 Adjusted EBITDA closes in on breakeven
- Net loss for the fourth quarter was $6.4 million compared to a loss of $19.5 million in the year ago quarter
- Fiscal year 2008 net loss significantly better than prior year
- Favorable ruling in EchoStar patent infringement case; damages and injunction upheld
- Announced today Cox tech trial underway; New England to be first market
- Comcast fully launched in New England; integrated marketing has begun
- Added Omnicom Media Group to list of major advertising agency research clients
- Added CBS to list of networks and advertisers signing on to TiVo audience research

So they far exceeded the street’s estimates. The net loss per share was $.06, while the consensus estimates were for $.11. Last year the loss was $.20 per share. For the full year of fiscal 2008 TiVo had a net loss of $31.5 million, or $.32 per share, compared to $47.8 million, or $.53 per share for fiscal 2007.

Some interesting bits. They’ve begun to recognize Product Lifetime revenue on units sold prior to November 1, 2007 over a period of 54 months instead of the 48 months they’ve used until now, and on units sold since then it is now spread over 60 months, in recognition of the boxes remaining in service longer on average.

But Roger’s statements are the most interesting to me:

“In terms of our mass distribution strategy, we continue to focus on increasing subscriptions through significant partnerships with leading MSOs in the U.S. and internationally. On that front, the TiVo service on Comcast is now operational in New England, Comcast’s largest market with almost two million subscribers. Comcast is marketing the services to these subscribers and we expect marketing of the product to increase as Comcast gains greater experience with the offering.

“In addition, we are announcing today that the TiVo service on Cox is currently in tech trials and we will be launching in Cox’s New England market. With both Comcast a reality and Cox in trial, our mass distribution strategy is making significant in-roads, effectively unleashing the power of TiVo beyond the confines of a dedicated hardware consumer electronic business.

“Along these lines, cable operators are beginning to realize the benefits of providing their customers with a feature set that goes beyond the applications that they have been offering to this point. In this regard, we are working in conjunction with CableLabs toward creating a standalone box that would be capable of providing the two way services provided by cable operators. In addition, we continue to stay ahead of the curve in this area, and have progressed on our work with the National Cable Television Association to make certain that not only will TiVo HD DVR users be able to access programming channels delivered using switched digital technology, but also that the cable industry is involved in making the TiVo installation process easier for consumers.

So two announcements in there. Cox is now officially in trials and will be deploying first in New England. That’s good news. But the big news is that TiVo just confirmed that they are developing the hybrid TiVo/OCAP box with two-way capabilities, which had been rumored earlier. And he effectively reiterated the focus on the Tuning Resolver to enable SDV support on today’s CableCARD TiVos.

I think I know why they’re doing that website survey too: “We are also in the process of re-launching TiVo.com so that we can more effectively market TiVo in the most efficient way possible.” So they’re probably gathering feedback as part of the relaunch effort.

See the full release for a lot more details.