TiVo Alticast last month announced that they will work together to make it easier to bring TiVo’s software and services to set top boxes. Alticast is a vendor if middleware for Java-based DVB-MHP, OCAP/tru2way technology and Blu-ray Disc Java (BD-J). They’re all ways to implement software independent of the host hardware – both tru2way and BD-J evolved out of MHP (Multimedia Home Platform). While all Blu-ray players support BD-J, and in the US OCAP/tru2way is deploying on cable systems (and the similar ACAP is intended for ATSC broadcast receivers), in most of the world MHP dominates.

Why is this significant? Well, based on the press release I think this signals a coming push by TiVo to leverage the work done for the Comcast & Cox deployments in the US to bring the TiVo interface to an assortment of set-top boxes worldwide:

“Teaming with Alticast allows global video providers to offer the unique combination of TiVo’s award winning user interface, advertising solutions, and broadband television functionality on set top boxes running Alticast’s industry standard embedded software for ITV applications,” said Joshua Danovitz, Vice President and GM of International at TiVo. “We hear from cable, satellite and IPTV operators around the world that they want better middleware solutions capable of quickly bringing TiVo applications to market and Alticast is in the pole position to fulfill this need. We look forward to their cooperation in making the TiVo experience available on a broad range of platforms, both in the United States and around the world, similar to the way that we have developed platforms for Comcast and Cox.”

I’ve been saying this for a while, that having the OCAP/tru2way version of the TiVo system could have an impact far beyond the US cable market. Having a portable implementation will allow TiVo to partner with hardware vendors and service providers worldwide. Working with Alticast should help get TiVo in the door, as well as smoothing the implementation issues. As TiVo has said that all tru2way cable DVRs in the US are potential TiVo systems, now, in theory, any DVR running MHP, or combo Blu-ray/DVR units, are potential TiVo systems.

Welll, in just under 10 hours I should be on a plane to Las Vegas, NV for CES. The show properly is Thursday-Sunday, but there are press events Tuesday and Wednesday which I’ll be attending. During the show itself I’ll be splitting my time between working Sling Media’s booth and trying to visit other vendors as a blogger. As is usual for me, my first victim, er, target of the show will probably be TiVo. Since I’ll be working half the show my time for seeing the rest is cut in half, but I’ll try to do what I can.

Going into this CES I’m not sure what the big deal is going to be this year, if there is one. The economy is down and I haven’t really felt any particular buzz about any given area of the market. HDTVs get bigger while getting thinner and faster (refresh rates). We may see some interesting 3D technologies which will start to enter homes in the next few years. Palm is expected to announce Nova and new hardware, but I’m not excited. I was a die-hard Palm OS user for many years, since 1998, and still carry a Treo 680. But after five or more years of waiting for Palm OS 6 Cobalt Nova I just don’t feel that inspired. I’m already focused on Android as my next likely platform, and it would take a lot for Palm to sway me. Even if they produce an incredible OS, they have an uphill battle ahead to win over developers. I don’t think they have a real chance at this point to gain significant market share. And without that the developers won’t come – and the apps really make the platform.

Going forward I think the mobile market will effectively be, in no particular order, Windows Mobile Professional, BlackBerry, Symbian S60, iPhone, and Android. The original Palm OS is the walking dead, and I don’t see Nova/Palm OS II carving out enough market share to be viable. Symbian UIQ is effectively dead as SonyEricsson and Motorola have pulled out and the Symbian world is focused on the S60-based open source effort. Windows Mobile Standard (aka Smartphone) is rapidly dying as Professional-based touch screen devices move into the lower end of the market where Standard used to focus. I expect Android, which is basically just coming into the market, to post the biggest gains as more devices land. I think the LiMo/LIPS effort will falter and expect to see some of the vendors who have been working on it switch to Android. I think those five platforms will provide the bulk of the smartphone market, anything else will be a small niche.

We’ll probably see more tru2way devices on display from a number of vendors this year, but I don’t know that we’ll see anything revolutionary in that market. I’m hoping TiVo may be showing off their ‘Series4′ tru2way-enabled model, which they’re believed to have been working on for a while. And they may be showing their new DirecTV software, which I expect will be running on the HR20/21/22 DirecTV DVR Plus hardware. I’m not expecting anything else major, maybe some new content partnership announcements and perhaps plans to bring TiVo to more countries. (I’m surprised they haven’t re-launched in the UK yet with the DVB-T model actually.)

The past couple of years the Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD fight provided some interest. But that was effectively over with CES2008, and officially ended when Toshiba threw in the towel in February. There aren’t likely to be any big announcements in the Blu-ray world, aside from more content partnerships like LG adding CinemaNow and YouTube to Netflix on their players. Maybe someone will be showing off higher density disc or 3D content concepts.

I’m hoping to be surprised by something at the show, something just unexpected. If you know of something I should be on the look out for, do let me know. And if you’re going to CES drop by the Sling Media booth and say hello. I believe I’m on the afternoons of Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday, and on Friday morning. I’m also scheduled to present for Sling Media at CntrStg on Saturday. Frankly I’m nervous as hell about that. It has been years since I’ve done a presentation or talk at a tradeshow and never at anything as big as CES.

OK, off to finish packing.

In what can’t be a good sign for the progress of the TiVo software for Comcast, CNET’s Matthew Elliott has posted in their Crave blog that he’s finally given up in frustration and returned to using the standard non-TiVo Comcast DVR. He first starting using the TiVo software May, and while his initial impression was favorable overall, he had some issues with it as well – especially performance.

He followed up in July, and by then the bloom was already off the rose. His patience was low with the performance issues by then and he was experiencing frozen screens and missed recordings. He was already considering returning to the standard Comcast DVR.

Things apparently improved for a while starting last month. The number of glitches dropped and the performance seemed to improve. But then, last week, he was locked out of On Demand and lost the ability to record anything – and that was the last straw. As he sums it up:

My two biggest gripes with the Comcast + TiVo service were its speed and reliability. Setting a recording took anywhere from 20 seconds to over a minute. With Comcast DVR, a recording is set almost instantaneously. Service reliability was the bigger issue; TiVo would regularly freeze up and required to be reset–a process that required me to pull the cable box out, unplug it, plug it back in, and wait 10 to 15 minutes for the service to return–and then re-enter the 30-second skip code for the remote. Other than encouraging me to read more, the only advantages I found with TiVo were its suggested recordings, its ad-free channel guide, and a better organized list of recorded shows, which grouped multiple recordings of a show and all HD recordings into folders.

I’d really like to see TiVo succeed in bringing their software to cable DVRs, but the road so far has been long and rocky. At this point it seems that there is still a lot of work to be done, and some of the troubles may be due to the lack of power in the fielded hardware. The TiVo software is running on top of a middleware layer (currently a precursor to tru2way, and it should be tru2way in time) which runs on top of a base OS, and that means it will be hard to match the performance of a native OS. A solution for this could be newer generations of cable DVR hardware which are bring designed from the start to support tru2way applications, instead of existing hardware that has been updated with software.

There are so many variables involved it is hard to say if the troubles are with TiVo’s software, the middleware layers, the base OS, the hardware, the head-end servers, or something else. So the issues may be out of TiVo’s hands. But in the end it doesn’t matter to the end user, they just want the software to work and don’t care who’s problem it is. So I hope that TiVo and their partners can sort things out and make it ‘just work’, or it will continue to struggle to gain traction.

Just recently certified by CableLabs, Panasonic’s first tru2way-enabled HDTVs are now available at retail. The first VIERA HDTVs with tru2way support are available from Abt Electronics in Glenview, IL, and tru2way support is officially available from Comcast in Chicago and Denver. The sets will also soon be available at Ultimate Electronics and Circuit City stores.

The cable industry is aggressively rolling out tru2way support and all of the MSOs, except for Charter, have promised to have it available by July 1, 2009. Charter says they’ll have completed roll-out by July 1, 2010. So the territory where tru2way TVs will be usable will be rapidly growing in the coming months.

This is clearly a very limited roll-out that is more about bragging rights, I don’t think they’ll be selling a huge number of these sets just yet. The 42″ TH-42PZ80Q plasma has an MSRP of $1,599.95 and the 50″ TH-50PZ80Q plasma has an MSRP of $2,299.95. It is great to see the technology hitting the streets, it is a good sign for the future. We’ll certain to see a lot of tru2way products come CES in January.

The press release has more details:
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Comcast subscriberOops, correction, he’s not a subscriber he just lives in their territory. Peter Ting of Dover, MA recently received a flier from Comcast in the mail promoting the TiVo DVR software. He was kind enough to scan it and send it to me. I did a little trimming and resizing. Click on the images for larger versions.

EDIT: User mtchamp from the InvestorVillage TiVo board snail mailed me his copy of the original flier and I’ve re-scanned the images. I also made a scan of just the fine print, which wasn’t readable in the earlier scans.

CableLabs has certified two tru2way-enabled CableCARD HDTVs from Panasonic, paving the way for them to be available to consumers this holiday season. The two models sport 42″ and 50″ HD displays. This is an important turn around from June, when Panasonic reportedly failed in their first tru2way certification attempt.

However, even if consumers can get their hands on the sets, there is no guarantee that they’ll be able to access tru2way content immediately. The cable industry has pledged to implement tru2way across their networks by July 1, 2009 – except for Charter which has until July 1, 2010. So early adopters may wish to check with their local MSO to see if tru2way support is available before jumping on these sets, or they may find themselves stuck with unidirectional CableCARD features until tru2way support is rolled out.

From Light Reading’s Cable Digital News.

In a filing yesterday with the FCC on the current status on CableCARD deployments the NCTA revealed that there have been a total of over 374,000 CableCARDs deployed for use in Unidirectional Digital Cable Products (UDCPs), such as the TiVo HD, by the ten largest cable MSOs, which cover roughly 90% of US cable subscribers. That may sound like a lot, but in their last filing 90 days ago in June, they reported over 372,000 CableCARDs for the same ten MSOs and 90% subscriber base. That implies that only 2,000 CableCARDs have been deployed to UDCPs in the past three months by the top 10 cable MSOs – combined. That’s nothing. It would also make me wonder a bit about the sales of the TiVo HD, since I’d expect nearly all of those to have at least one M-Card CableCARD.

That is, of course, if the numbers are true – and they may not be. See the table below and especially the first footnote¹. Comcast’s numbers for September are estimated to be 10-15% lower than actual due to an internal error. We could be looking at an increase of more than 34,000 users instead of only 2,000!

While 34,000 would certainly be better than 2,000, it still isn’t really setting the world on fire. Maybe the M-Card is a ray of hope in those numbers – if customers who previously used two S-Cards are trading them in for a single M-Card on devices like the TiVo HD, it would result in a lower cumulative number. Still, I don’t expect that’s a huge number either.

This is not to say that the total number of CableCARDs in use is that small, not at all. Since the FCC’s ‘integration ban’ went into effect on July 1, 2007, forcing cable MSOs to begin using CableCARDs in their own STBs, those same ten MSOs have deployed over 7,800,000 CableCARDs in their STBs. So in less than fifteen months they’ve deployed more than twenty times the number of CableCARDs as have been issued for 3rd party UDCPs in the four years they’ve been available.

The integration ban was supposed to force cable MSOs to ‘eat their own dog food’ and thereby improve support for CableCARDs. The idea was that this would help foster the overall CableCARD market. Better support from MSOs would lead to more products, which would mean more 3rd party UDCPs in the field. For the most part, this hasn’t happened.

Why not? Well, I think I can sum it up in one brand name: tru2way. Starting late last year, and getting an official launch at CES in January, OCAP became tru2way and marked a push to get consumer electronics companies on board. Then starting with Samsung in May, followed by a larger push by Sony later that month, CE vendors started jumping on the tru2way bandwagon.

What does this have to do with slow CableCARD adoption? Well, these same CE vendors have held off on releasing UDCPs while they work on tru2way-enabled devices. Why invest in developing and marketing a unidirectional product when you’re going to obsolete it with a two-way product in a year? The first tru2way products are starting to trickle out, and there will probably be a bunch of them on display at CES in January. So I think the push for tru2way was a major contributor to lax CableCARD pick up. Vendors just haven’t been releasing CableCARD-enabled products so there aren’t many options for consumers, which naturally means not many cards are being deployed. Really the only major CableCARD product out there right now is TiVo. CableCARD TVs are thin on the ground. CableCARD-enabled Media Center PCs have had anemic sales. And Digeo outright canceled their Moxi CableCARD HD DVR.

CableCARD was slow out of the gate, and by the time MSOs had the infrastructure worked out vendors were already looking toward round two with tru2way and they just decided to sit round one with UDCPs out entirely. The deployment of SDV and the need to develop a Tuning Adapter, and to support it, was very likely a factor in that as well. I don’t expect to see any real pick-up in CableCARD utilization until a sufficient number of tru2way devices are available to consumers, and then I do expect to see a real uptick.

The filing also has information from several MSOs on their CableCARD pricing and install practices. To compare June to September:

¹Comcast states that their September number may by low by 10-15% due to internal reporting errors.

The count for this reporting period of CableCARDs installed in one way retail devices in active customer homes is estimated to be 10-15% lower than the actual number due to internal Comcast reporting errors that are the result of an internal Division reorganization during the reporting period. The next quarterly report will more accurately reflect the actual count.

Since Comcast has such a large installed base this could be the reason for the seemingly small total uptick. The other four combined yield an increase of 3,429. Comcast’s apparent drop of 1,383 drags it down. But if they’re short just 10% they would actually have an increase of 20,334 users. And 15% would mean an increase of 31,192! So we’d be looking at a total increase of 23,763 to 34,621 – rather more than around 2,000. And that’s just from these five MSOs.

²Comcast allows self-installs in at least some areas – 68% used truck rolls, 32% were self-installs.

³First card is free, fee for additional cards.

⁴$10.43 if install is included with other services, $25.14 if purpose visit.

⁵0.2% of Time Warner installs are self-install, which is negligible.

⁶The average is $2.26, but they report most divisions are $1.75 – which must mean the remaining divisions are rather higher to bring the average up.

EchoStar Monday announced that they’ve signed a tru2way Host Device License Agreement with CableLabs, which allows them to implement devices using CableCARD and OCAP/tru2way. This may seem odd at first, since EchoStar is often conflated with DISH Network, but remember that EchoStar and DISH split into separate companies, and EchoStar is pursuing non-satellite markets such as OTA with the DTVPal (ironically being marketed by DISH Network) and cable with devices like the SlingModem, from EchoStar subsidiary Sling Media.

This license does open up new possibilities. A CableCARD-enabled Slingbox, perhaps. EchoStar could take their DVR platform, as used by DISH Network, and re-purpose it as a CableCARD DVR for cable MSOs and/or consumers. Something like the recently announced 722s DVR with built-in Slingbox & SlingCatcher features, only for cable, could be quite an interesting product. (Perhaps waiting for the final act in the DVR patent lawsuit with TiVo to remove any uncertainty for customers.) They could produce a whole new cable STB unrelated to any of their current platforms. It will certainly be interesting to see what they do with the license, I’m sure they didn’t sign it just for laughs.

Their press release is below:
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We first heard about an OCAP SDK from Motorola last June, but haven’t heard much since then. In the meantime there have been a number of changes, not the least of which has been the rebranding of OCAP as tru2way, as well as a number of CE vendors signing the tru2way MOU with CableLabs. Tru2way really has a lot of traction now and we should see a number of tru2way products on the market by mid-2009.

Well, according to Media Experiences 2 Go Motorola has finally released the SDK to tru2way developers. ME2G has a Q&A with Motorola’s Frank Goddard, and there is a product fact sheet PDF available as well. Tools like this will be a major factor in building a successful tru2way ecosystem.

I posted this morning about LG Electronics signing the cable MOU on tru2way. Well, it looks like Funai Electric has also signed it. You may not be familiar with the Funai name, but Funai markets their products under the Philips, Magnavox, Sylvania, and Emerson brand names and also provides ’store brand’ units such as Insignia for Best Buy and Pye for Circuit City.

Picked up from TWICE.