Back in October Comcast started rolling out Tuning Adapters, and Time Warner was offering pre-orders, but it looks like it is spreading.

Yesterday Hank, a reader from Spencer, MA, contacted me to let me know that he’d received a notice in the mail from Charter that they will be switching to SDV on February 2, 2008 and that, as a TiVo user, he could claim a free Tuning Adapter on or after January 5th. Spencer is very close to my home in Worcester, MA, where I also have Charter. I haven’t received the notice yet, but it may well be waiting for me when I return from CES next week. I’m kind of hoping it is, I’d like to get some hands-on experience with the Tuning Adapter to see if it works as well as promised.

And today TVBarn.com is reporting that Time Warner has begun deploying Tuning Adapters in Austin, TX.

It is about time, but it is nice to see this finally getting into the hands of TiVo users to allow them to tune SDV content.

Despite some ongoing issues, it looks like the Comcast TiVo software is heading to Chicago. Dave Zatz over at Zatz Not Funny caught this in Comcast’s earnings call today:

We are rolling out TiVo beyond the Boston market test, where things are going quite well and we are going to be introducing other cities, probably starting with Chicago in the first quarter next year

This isn’t too surprising as Chicago is one of two cities where Comcast has rolled out tru2way support (the other being Denver - maybe they’ll be next?), and, as Light Reading’s Cable Digital News points out, it is another territory where Comcast uses Motorola hardware. Still no word on when Comcast and TiVo will complete the work to being the software to Cisco/Scientific Atlanta DVRs.

Comcast is also running a new TV spot to advertise the TiVo software:

In what can’t be a good sign for the progress of the TiVo software for Comcast, CNET’s Matthew Elliott has posted in their Crave blog that he’s finally given up in frustration and returned to using the standard non-TiVo Comcast DVR. He first starting using the TiVo software May, and while his initial impression was favorable overall, he had some issues with it as well - especially performance.

He followed up in July, and by then the bloom was already off the rose. His patience was low with the performance issues by then and he was experiencing frozen screens and missed recordings. He was already considering returning to the standard Comcast DVR.

Things apparently improved for a while starting last month. The number of glitches dropped and the performance seemed to improve. But then, last week, he was locked out of On Demand and lost the ability to record anything - and that was the last straw. As he sums it up:

My two biggest gripes with the Comcast + TiVo service were its speed and reliability. Setting a recording took anywhere from 20 seconds to over a minute. With Comcast DVR, a recording is set almost instantaneously. Service reliability was the bigger issue; TiVo would regularly freeze up and required to be reset–a process that required me to pull the cable box out, unplug it, plug it back in, and wait 10 to 15 minutes for the service to return–and then re-enter the 30-second skip code for the remote. Other than encouraging me to read more, the only advantages I found with TiVo were its suggested recordings, its ad-free channel guide, and a better organized list of recorded shows, which grouped multiple recordings of a show and all HD recordings into folders.

I’d really like to see TiVo succeed in bringing their software to cable DVRs, but the road so far has been long and rocky. At this point it seems that there is still a lot of work to be done, and some of the troubles may be due to the lack of power in the fielded hardware. The TiVo software is running on top of a middleware layer (currently a precursor to tru2way, and it should be tru2way in time) which runs on top of a base OS, and that means it will be hard to match the performance of a native OS. A solution for this could be newer generations of cable DVR hardware which are bring designed from the start to support tru2way applications, instead of existing hardware that has been updated with software.

There are so many variables involved it is hard to say if the troubles are with TiVo’s software, the middleware layers, the base OS, the hardware, the head-end servers, or something else. So the issues may be out of TiVo’s hands. But in the end it doesn’t matter to the end user, they just want the software to work and don’t care who’s problem it is. So I hope that TiVo and their partners can sort things out and make it ‘just work’, or it will continue to struggle to gain traction.

Just recently certified by CableLabs, Panasonic’s first tru2way-enabled HDTVs are now available at retail. The first VIERA HDTVs with tru2way support are available from Abt Electronics in Glenview, IL, and tru2way support is officially available from Comcast in Chicago and Denver. The sets will also soon be available at Ultimate Electronics and Circuit City stores.

The cable industry is aggressively rolling out tru2way support and all of the MSOs, except for Charter, have promised to have it available by July 1, 2009. Charter says they’ll have completed roll-out by July 1, 2010. So the territory where tru2way TVs will be usable will be rapidly growing in the coming months.

This is clearly a very limited roll-out that is more about bragging rights, I don’t think they’ll be selling a huge number of these sets just yet. The 42″ TH-42PZ80Q plasma has an MSRP of $1,599.95 and the 50″ TH-50PZ80Q plasma has an MSRP of $2,299.95. It is great to see the technology hitting the streets, it is a good sign for the future. We’ll certain to see a lot of tru2way products come CES in January.

The press release has more details:
Read the rest of this entry »

Comcast subscriberOops, correction, he’s not a subscriber he just lives in their territory. Peter Ting of Dover, MA recently received a flier from Comcast in the mail promoting the TiVo DVR software. He was kind enough to scan it and send it to me. I did a little trimming and resizing. Click on the images for larger versions.

EDIT: User mtchamp from the InvestorVillage TiVo board snail mailed me his copy of the original flier and I’ve re-scanned the images. I also made a scan of just the fine print, which wasn’t readable in the earlier scans.

In a filing yesterday with the FCC on the current status on CableCARD deployments the NCTA revealed that there have been a total of over 374,000 CableCARDs deployed for use in Unidirectional Digital Cable Products (UDCPs), such as the TiVo HD, by the ten largest cable MSOs, which cover roughly 90% of US cable subscribers. That may sound like a lot, but in their last filing 90 days ago in June, they reported over 372,000 CableCARDs for the same ten MSOs and 90% subscriber base. That implies that only 2,000 CableCARDs have been deployed to UDCPs in the past three months by the top 10 cable MSOs - combined. That’s nothing. It would also make me wonder a bit about the sales of the TiVo HD, since I’d expect nearly all of those to have at least one M-Card CableCARD.

That is, of course, if the numbers are true - and they may not be. See the table below and especially the first footnote¹. Comcast’s numbers for September are estimated to be 10-15% lower than actual due to an internal error. We could be looking at an increase of more than 34,000 users instead of only 2,000!

While 34,000 would certainly be better than 2,000, it still isn’t really setting the world on fire. Maybe the M-Card is a ray of hope in those numbers - if customers who previously used two S-Cards are trading them in for a single M-Card on devices like the TiVo HD, it would result in a lower cumulative number. Still, I don’t expect that’s a huge number either.

This is not to say that the total number of CableCARDs in use is that small, not at all. Since the FCC’s ‘integration ban’ went into effect on July 1, 2007, forcing cable MSOs to begin using CableCARDs in their own STBs, those same ten MSOs have deployed over 7,800,000 CableCARDs in their STBs. So in less than fifteen months they’ve deployed more than twenty times the number of CableCARDs as have been issued for 3rd party UDCPs in the four years they’ve been available.

The integration ban was supposed to force cable MSOs to ‘eat their own dog food’ and thereby improve support for CableCARDs. The idea was that this would help foster the overall CableCARD market. Better support from MSOs would lead to more products, which would mean more 3rd party UDCPs in the field. For the most part, this hasn’t happened.

Why not? Well, I think I can sum it up in one brand name: tru2way. Starting late last year, and getting an official launch at CES in January, OCAP became tru2way and marked a push to get consumer electronics companies on board. Then starting with Samsung in May, followed by a larger push by Sony later that month, CE vendors started jumping on the tru2way bandwagon.

What does this have to do with slow CableCARD adoption? Well, these same CE vendors have held off on releasing UDCPs while they work on tru2way-enabled devices. Why invest in developing and marketing a unidirectional product when you’re going to obsolete it with a two-way product in a year? The first tru2way products are starting to trickle out, and there will probably be a bunch of them on display at CES in January. So I think the push for tru2way was a major contributor to lax CableCARD pick up. Vendors just haven’t been releasing CableCARD-enabled products so there aren’t many options for consumers, which naturally means not many cards are being deployed. Really the only major CableCARD product out there right now is TiVo. CableCARD TVs are thin on the ground. CableCARD-enabled Media Center PCs have had anemic sales. And Digeo outright canceled their Moxi CableCARD HD DVR.

CableCARD was slow out of the gate, and by the time MSOs had the infrastructure worked out vendors were already looking toward round two with tru2way and they just decided to sit round one with UDCPs out entirely. The deployment of SDV and the need to develop a Tuning Adapter, and to support it, was very likely a factor in that as well. I don’t expect to see any real pick-up in CableCARD utilization until a sufficient number of tru2way devices are available to consumers, and then I do expect to see a real uptick.

The filing also has information from several MSOs on their CableCARD pricing and install practices. To compare June to September:

¹Comcast states that their September number may by low by 10-15% due to internal reporting errors.

The count for this reporting period of CableCARDs installed in one way retail devices in active customer homes is estimated to be 10-15% lower than the actual number due to internal Comcast reporting errors that are the result of an internal Division reorganization during the reporting period. The next quarterly report will more accurately reflect the actual count.

Since Comcast has such a large installed base this could be the reason for the seemingly small total uptick. The other four combined yield an increase of 3,429. Comcast’s apparent drop of 1,383 drags it down. But if they’re short just 10% they would actually have an increase of 20,334 users. And 15% would mean an increase of 31,192! So we’d be looking at a total increase of 23,763 to 34,621 - rather more than around 2,000. And that’s just from these five MSOs.

²Comcast allows self-installs in at least some areas - 68% used truck rolls, 32% were self-installs.

³First card is free, fee for additional cards.

⁴$10.43 if install is included with other services, $25.14 if purpose visit.

⁵0.2% of Time Warner installs are self-install, which is negligible.

⁶The average is $2.26, but they report most divisions are $1.75 - which must mean the remaining divisions are rather higher to bring the average up.

TiVo today reported their financial results for the second quarter of fiscal 2009, which ended July 31st. They had a good quarter, turning in their second profitable quarter in a row, and their third ever, with $2.9 million net income and $10.6 million adjusted EBITDA. TiVo highlighted a few items in their release:

- Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $10.6 million compared to a loss of $(11.2) million in the year-ago quarter, exceeding guidance
- Net Income for the second quarter was $2.9 million compared to a loss of $(17.7) million in the year-ago quarter
- TiVo service on Comcast now available in Connecticut; Comcast will also continue to fund development work for the TiVo product to expand the feature set and add support for the Tru2way infrastructure
- TiVo and Entertainment Weekly join forces to connect TV viewers with their favorite shows on an automatic basis
- TiVo successfully launched in Australia by Seven Networks
- YouTube videos now available on the TiVo service; TiVo now provides access to more television and broadband content choices than any other offering in the world
- TiVo’s recent research deal with media marketing research firm TRA ties anonymous viewing behavior to product purchases in millions of homes; Significantly changing the quality of information available to marketers

TiVo is continuing to bleed subscribers, which was expected. With DirecTV continuing to push their in-house HR20/21 DVRs are upgrades for DirecTiVo users, even with additions from Comcast, Cox, and Cablevision Mexico, TiVo lost 136,000 net MSO/Broadcaster subscribers. And while TiVo added 36,000 gross TiVo-owned subscribers, they lost 78,000 gross TiVo-owned subs, for a net loss of 42,000 TiVo-owned subscribers. This is mainly due to legacy subscribers upgrading to HDTV and opting for cable or satellite DVRs. This leaves TiVo with 1.686 million TiVo-owned subscriptions and 3.623 total cumulative subscriptions.

This may sound bad, but it is also partly because TiVo has made massive cuts in their marketing efforts to focus on profitability instead of subscriber growth. For the quarter just ended their subscriber acquisition cost was only $135, a massive decrease from the $758 of a year ago, and only a slight up-tick from the $118 of last quarter. Instead of lots of marketing, subsidies, and rebates, which drive up SAC, TiVo is focusing on working with retailers and other vendors to bundle TiVo with HDTV purchases to capture those upgraders before they pick up another DVR. They’re also focusing on their partnerships with Cablevision Mexico, Comcast, Cox, and Seven Network in Australia.

And in that area things are looking good. The TiVo launch in Australia with Seven Network has been going well and TiVo is happy with it, though actual figures have not been released. And Comcast is finally ready to start a major marketing push and to announce more territories:

In regards to our mass distribution strategy, a top Comcast executive offered the following comments on the progress the TiVo on Comcast service has made to date: “We are pleased with the progress of the TiVo service and have broadened its footprint in our New England market to Connecticut. Refinements to optimize the product’s performance have been mostly completed, significantly improving the user experience. Importantly, we intend to light up a full marketing campaign around TiVo in September and, upon this occurring, we will be announcing multiple additional markets to which TiVo will be rolled out through next year. We will also continue to fund development work for the TiVo product, which will include expanding the feature set and adding support for Tru2way infrastructure.”

Rogers stated, “Additionally, the TiVo service on Cox, which is currently in trials, is on track for a launch in Cox’s New England market later this year.”

“On the international front, Seven and TiVo successfully launched the TiVo service in Australia and because of the significant consumer demand there, retailers chose to release the product early. We are also extremely pleased with the marketing shoulder Seven is putting behind this launch as they’ve prominently featured TiVo in their marketing and programming including the Olympic opening ceremonies, their top rated morning show, and a special advertising spot they developed, which includes dozens of Australian celebrities. International distribution is an increasingly important component of our business model and there continues to be tremendous interest from international distributors for the TiVo offering.”

During the Q&A session when asked if Comcast had gotten to the point where they don’t require a truck roll for the TiVo software install, Rogers answered that that issue was a dependency on non-TiVo software and that Comcast was close to deploying the solution. It sounded like that was the gating factor for Comcast to launch the marketing effort, and that also helps explain Comcast’s satisfaction despite the delays, it doesn’t sound like it was TiVo’s problem.

During the Q&A session at the end of the call, Rogers once again mentioned a tru2way TiVo box, what the user community has started calling a ‘Series4′. He didn’t offer any specifics (unsurprisingly), but his feeling is that it will take more time for the industry to establish a national tru2way playing field to make it viable to release such a product. Personally I think that they may show something, prototype perhaps, at CES in January with the release for later in 2009 as most of the cable MSOs have pledged to have tru2way in place by July, 2009. Just my speculation.

You can get more information from TiVo’s release and key metrics.

I posted this morning about LG Electronics signing the cable MOU on tru2way. Well, it looks like Funai Electric has also signed it. You may not be familiar with the Funai name, but Funai markets their products under the Philips, Magnavox, Sylvania, and Emerson brand names and also provides ’store brand’ units such as Insignia for Best Buy and Pye for Circuit City.

Picked up from TWICE.

Originally announced as an agreement between Sony and the cable industry, and then signed by additional CE vendors, the tru2way MOU has now been signed by LG Electronics. They’re planning to release tru2way-enabled HDTVs starting in 2009.

Press release below:
Read the rest of this entry »

Just a few days ago I was saying that TiVo and Comcast really needed to push out the promised update for the Comcast TiVo units to correct the numerous problems experienced by users. And it looks like they’ve done so, as Friday evening a Comcast Rep posted to TiVoCommunity to announce the deployment:

As some of you may have noticed, a software update has now been rolled out to all of the Comcast DVRs with TiVo Service. As a reminder, this update fixes the reboot loop bug on DCH boxes (aka the “8888″ display bug), enables Dolby Digital output for DCH boxes, enhances the performance for the HD filter in the Guide, and other bug fixes.

I’m sure this will be very welcome news for those with the TiVo software on their Comcast DVRs. If you have one, I’d love to have a comment from you about the update and if it improved things for you, or if you still have any issue.

But the post went beyond just announcing the update, it also talked about another update coming down the pike with some new features:

There will be another release coming in the near future that should provide substantial performance improvements, particularly for the Guide and scheduling recordings. In response to user feedback, this release will also enable users to jump forward by 24 hours in the Guide by pressing the skip-to-tick button on the remote, and jump backward by 24 hours by pressing the instant replay button. I will keep you posted as the exact timing for this release is set.

The performance improvements will be most welcome, I’m sure, as the most common complaint with regard to the current software is the sluggish performance. But I thing the 24 jump in the Guide is genius, and I hope that kind of functionality finds its way back to the standalone TiVo software. I think giving up Instant Replay and Advance while the guide is on screen would be worth it for the quicker navigation. What do you think?