This is beginning to sound like the Moller Sky Car, Duke Nukem Forever, or Digeo releasing a consumer Moxi DVR. Back in April, InPhase Technologies said they’d be announcing a holographic storage product in May. Well, now they’re saying it won’t ship until late 2009.

I first posted about holographic storage in 2005, and then again in 2007, but I’ve been reading about it for at least 10 years. Well before Blu-ray and HD DVD, back when DVD was still new and gaining ground, I was reading about holographic storage and how it was the Next Big Thing. It certainly is a promising concept, and it has worked in the lab, but that last step to commercialization seems to be a doozie.

But InPhase isn’t alone, GE’s Integrated Polymer Systems Lab has also announced a contender for the holographic storage market. Their solution uses polycarbonate discs, like CD, DVD, or Blu-ray and the holographic discs could be read in drives which could also read those formats, making it another generation of backwards compatible technology. That’s if they ever come to market, and I won’t be holding my breath.

From The Register.

Forgive me for being skeptical, but I’ve been hearing about holographic storage, and how it is the next big thing, for at least ten years now. I’ve even made a few posts about it here in the past. So far not one of the announcements or pronouncements have panned out.

Well, here’s another one, InPhase Technologies has said it will announce its holographic storage product, Tapestry, in May. Since that’s a fairly concrete date, and May is just a week away, I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt and believe that a real product will be available. However, from The Register is reporting it isn’t going to exactly change the world. The tech specs are respectable - 130mm x 3.5mm plastic discs (just a wee bit larger than the 120mm x 2.2mm of CD, DVD, and Blu-ray) in a cartridge (somewhat like early Blu-ray prototypes) which store up to 300GB using a blue laser. And InPhase claims they’ll hold the data for 50 years. Read/write speeds are 20MB/sec, which is respectable - that’s 160Mbps, while 4x Blu-ray is 144Mbps and can store up to 50GB. However, Tapestry media will cost $180 per disc in volume - and the drives will cost $18,000!

Future iterations of Tapestry will supposedly push the specs to 800GB at 80MB/sec, and then 1.6TB at 120MB/sec. Perhaps, but they really need to bring those prices down if they want to sell any of these.

It doesn’t even make sense from a corporate backup perspective. As The Register points out, LTO-3 tapes, which are in common usage, hold 400GB and already has 80MB/sec transfer rates. And the newer LTO-4 tapes hold 800GB with a 120MB/sec transfer rate. Tapes may not have a 50 year shelf life, but most entities don’t need to store their data that long. Tape isn’t random access like disc, but that’s generally not a requirement for backups. And when it is using a hard disk system for near-line backup and tape for off site and long term backups makes more sense technologically and economically.

Also, tape is not only far less expensive, but it is re-usable. The Tapestry discs are WORM - Write Once, Read Many - in layman’s terms, just like a CD-R, DVD-R, or BD-RE. Anyone want a $180 coaster when a burn goes awry? And even without that risk, it isn’t suitable for backup systems which tend to reuse the same media over and over. So this is really just for long-term archiving.

As a concept it is interesting, but it sounds like it has a long way to go before it finds common use in commercial applications, and even longer before it appears in consumer goods.

Spotted in The Register.

An array of Blu-ray news today.

Opus Arte, a distributor specializing in ‘high-art’ titles (Swan Lake, Strauss: Die Fledermaus, and the like), has previously been exclusively HD DVD. However, they’re going neutral, adding Blu-ray Disc to their high-def releases. Their first Blu-ray title, Mendelssohn’s A Midsummers Night’s Dream, previously released on HD DVD last November, will hit in March. Via High-Def Digest.

Sharp announced a new generation of Blu-ray laser diodes which will support 4x-6x BD recording. A 3.3mm version will be used in laptop drives, and a 5.6mm version in desktop drives. Mass production begins in April, with a monthly production capacity of 700,000 diodes. Products using these new diodes should hit in the second half of the year. The Sharp press release, via I4U, by way of Blu-ray.com.

It looks like Spain is really turning Blu. Previously distributors Manga Films, Filmax and Tripictures went Blu, and now another Spanish distributor, Cameo, can be added to the list. They’re currently preparing a version of the BBC’s Planet Earth for the Spanish market. Additionally, the largest Spanish online movie retailer, DVDgo, has added a Blu-ray tab to their site. (No HD DVD tab.) From PlanetaHD, via Blu-ray.com.

Signamtek has announced a less expensive standalone Blu-ray player for the European market. The SBR-1000 is expected to retail for under €250 when it hits the street in April. That should make it the new low bar in BD player pricing for Europe. From Presence PC via Blu-ray.com.

Hollywood in High-Def has an interview with big name producer/writer Dean Devlin about why he prefers Blu-ray. Via Blu-ray.com.

Finally, The Register reports on a survey done by PriceGrabber.com about high-def player adoption. Their survey of 2185 people concluded that the main issue limiting adoption has been the high prices of BD players, with 56% of those interested in going Blu holding out for lower prices. While only 19% said the format war was holding them back. 24% said they were interested in buying Blu-ray in the next 12 months, while 21% were interested in HD DVD. 14% were interested in an “integrated video game console” - which, today, means only the PS3.

I take these results with a huge grain of salt. The methodology of the survey isn’t shared, but keep in mind PriceGrabber is a comparative shopping site used mainly by those looking for the best price on an item (I use it myself). So if this survey was of PG users, it is unsurprising that they’d cite price as their main concern. But for the market at large, this has clearly not been the case. Blu-ray continues to outsell HD DVD, despite the price advantage HD DVD enjoys. And BD sales spiked after Warner’s announcement removed most of the uncertainty from the market. Of course lower prices will attract more buyers to high-def players overall. But price does not appear to currently be the deciding factor, or HD DVD would be besting Blu-ray - and quite the opposite is happening. Also, I think this survey must have been done before Warner’s announcement. I have a hard time believing nearly equal percentages of respondents said they’re looking at BD and HD DVD post-announcement. Thanks to reader Morac for the pointer to the article.

Major UK retailer Woolworths (not to be confused with defunct US retailer F. W. Woolworth Company aka Woolworth’s) has decided to drop HD DVD from their stores after Blu-ray bested the format 10-to-1 during the holiday shopping season, according to The Retail Bulletin. Beginning in March, Woolworths will no longer carry HD DVD in their stores, though they will continue to offer the format online. At the same time they drop HD DVD, they will carry Blu-ray in all 820 of their stores. Woolworths is the biggest retailer of high-def discs in the UK, with sales typically rising by over 40% a month compared to a relatively flat DVD market. According to The Register, Toshiba is still solidly in denial mode:

Olivier Van Wynendaele, the European assistant general manager of Toshiba’s Consumer Products Division, said: “While we’re disappointed by Woolworths’ decision, it is extremely early to spot which format will eventually win. We’re confident that HD DVD’s affordability, fantastic choice of movies, great consumer experience and upcoming promotions will help it continue to strengthen its share of the market.”

I think Toshiba’s strategy is to put out so much spin that they reverse the earth’s rotation, and thereby turn back time.

Meanwhile, back in reality, the 800-pound gorilla of the analyst world, Gartner, has called the war for Blu-ray in 2008. According to EngadgetHD they wrote: “Gartner believes that Toshiba’s price-cutting may prolong HD DVD’s life a little, but the limited line-up of film titles will inflict fatal damage on the format.” And furthermore called Toshiba’s recent player price cuts “useless resistance” - ouch. Their conclusion? “Gartner expects that, by the end of 2008, Blu-ray will be the winning format in the consumer market, and the war will be over.” Hardly a shocking conclusion in light of the continuing bad news for HD DVD, but I certainly hope HD DVD calls it quits sooner rather than later.

But apparently just not quite yet. In what, to me, seems like throwing good money after bad, Home Media Magazine reports that Toshiba will run a 30-second spot for HD DVD during Super Bowl XLII on February 3rd. The spot will highlight the HD-A3, HD-A30, and HD-A35 HD DVD players, which recently had their prices slashed. Fox TV reportedly charged $2.7 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot, plus whatever it cost Toshiba to put together the ad. The Blu-ray Disc Association reportedly considered running a Super Bowl spot, but decided against doing so. But Andy Parsons, SVP of industrial solutions business group for Panasonic Electronics and BDA spokesperson, took the opportunity for a little dig at Toshiba:

I certainly admire [Toshiba's] chutzpah,” Parsons said. “They can certainly choose to do as they please with their marketing. Running a Super Bowl ad is not likely to convince consumers than HD DVD will win the format war.”

I’d have to agree. Toshiba may see a bump in sales from the ad, on top of their price cuts, but it is going to take a lot more than one Super Bowl ad to turn the market in their favor.

And it looks like Circuit City may be dropping HD DVD in their stores as well. Rumors have been flying around about Circuit City putting HD DVD players on clearance, and now Format War Central has photographic proof. It seems Circuit City is blowing out the HD-A3 for $100 and the HD-A30 for $149, clearly marked ‘Clearance’. With no 4th generation players on the horizon, it would seem that if they clear out the 3rd generation units, there is nothing to replace them.