This week’s Nielsen VideoScan numbers from Home Media Magazine show that, for the week ended 3/30, HD DVD faded to 16% of the high-def market, with Blu-ray at 84%. That puts them at 67/33 since inception. But more interesting is that Blu-ray took 8% of the general market, to DVD’s 92%. That’s up from 6% last week. The growing number of day-and-date Blu-ray releases and increased player sales should see Blu-ray continue to gain market share.

A small change in Home Media Magazine reflects the much larger change in the batter for home video. The Nielsen VideoScan pie-charts, which used to show BD vs. HD DVD for the week ended, year-to-date, and since inception now show BD/HD DVD for week-ended and since inception - and the third box is now BD vs. DVD market share for the week ended. For the week ended 3/23 Blu-ray took 88% of the market, to HD DVD’s 12%. With the last of the HD DVD exclusives gone, and an increasing number of small studios canceling their remaining HD DVD titles, the HD DVD percentage should fall off to zero fairly quickly now. Since inception, BD has taken 67% of the market.

The new BD/DVD chart only compares the top 20 titles by unit volume for each format, but BD has 6% of the market to DVD’s 94%. That may not sound like much, but it is pretty good for a fledgling format just coming off the end of a format war that slowed adoption. As more and more major releases hit Blu-ray day-and-date, especially once Universal, Paramount, and DreamWorks Animation start their BD releases, that percentage should rise steadily - give or take a bit each week for variation.

This issue has a lot of BD coverage - the entire front page is BD-related articles. New releases are seeing an increasing percentage of sales on BD. No Country for Old Men saw 9.8% of sales on BD (the rest on DVD), while Hitman saw 12.6% of sales on BD. That compares to levels of 2-3% for most titles during the format war. With the spike in BD growth, one of the articles examines the issues replicators are facing in adopting to BD demand. The up-front investment in a BD production line runs from $1.5 to $1.7 million for a 25GB line to nearly $2.7 million for a 50GB line. Yields of usable discs is now up to around 75%, from only about half early on. But this isn’t dissimilar to what happened with DVD early on, and over time yields will increase and costs will decrease.

New research from Strategy Analytics predicts that Blu-ray will be in 30 million homes by the end of the year, and 132 million by 2012.

Hmm, Home Media Magazine wasn’t out on Friday as it normally is (I’m guessing due to the holiday), but I just checked it and it is up now. For the week ended 3/16 HD DVD took 22% of the market to Blu-ray’s 78%, putting them 76:24 year-to-date and 66:34 since inception. But with the last of the big studio HD DVD releases gone, the best HD DVD placed in the top 10 sellers was ninth, with American Gangster. Tenth also went to HD DVD, with Beowulf. Personally I was happy to see a niche anime title like Appleseed: Ex Machina placing fourth, and selling 12.27% of the volume of first place No Country for Old Men. I’ve read other reports that Appleseed moved roughly 30% of its volume on Blu-ray, the rest being DVD. (It placed 16th on the DVD sellers list.) Which shows that niche markets, like anime fans, tend to be early adopters - anime fans also jumped on LaserDisc and DVD earlier than the general market.

It may not be long for this world, but HD DVD had a good week. For the week ending 3/9 it took 35% of the market, to Blu-ray’s 65%. That puts them at 75:25 year-to-date, and 66:34 since inception. Beowulf on HD DVD was once again the top high-def seller, 30 Days of Night on BD took second place with over 80% as many copies, but HD DVD’s American Gangster came in 3rd with nearly 70%.

Well, the cease-fire may have been signed, but it’ll be a few months yet before all the troops return home. There’ll still be a few more market share reports and the like. And, of course, in the future there will still be Blu-ray news. Hopefully we’ll be able to focus on newer, better machines, new software, and lower prices.

For the week ending 2/17, the last week before Toshiba pulled the plug on HD DVD, HD DVD managed to jump back to a 27% share, with Blu-ray at 73%. That put them at 76:24 for the year, and 65:35 since inception. It was clear Toshiba’s efforts were not working, with HD DVD only clawing back to roughly 3:1, from the previous week’s 4:1, which is still a big drop from the 2:1 split it held for most of 2007. Something I found interesting. During the war, Home Media Magazine usually had the BD/HD DVD split graphs right on the cover - this week they’re on page 40. There is also a dedicated Blu-ray supplement on this issue, which includes a list of currently announced 2088 releases through May. And a little article entitled “Format War’s End Kills Bloggers Main Topic“.

Onkyo, which had previously suspended HD DVD player production, has now officially killed their HD DVD players permanently. Since they used Toshiba components it is hardly surprising. They are instead turning to Blu-ray. Development of an Onkyo Blu-ray player has been underway, but no specific announcement has yet been made. Though it seems likely we’ll see it later this year, almost certainly before the holidays. Via Blu-ray.com.

sofatronic’s announces Kaleidoscope software, which makes authoring BD-J applications easier by allowing authors to create applications via a GUI editor. EngadgetHD has a press release from sofatronic about the release. Using the tool, authors can create interacting Blu-ray menus and applications without having to write any Java code. The tool will create the Java code for BD-J automatically. This is exactly the kind of thing I like to see, and hope to see more of. The easier it is for designers and authors to exploit the power of BD-J, the more use it will get.

The release:
Read the rest of this entry »

After a few weeks of clawing back market share from Blu-ray, HD DVD had a major backslide the week ending 2/10. HD DVD fell from 26% back to 19%, giving Blu-ray 81% of the high-def media market. This puts Blu-ray at 77% Year-to-Date, and 65% since inception of the formats.

The Hollywood Reporter claims that ‘reliable industry sources’ tell them Toshiba is finally ready to give up on HD DVD and will pull the plug ‘in the coming weeks’. Toshiba, of course, maintains that no decision has been made:

Officially, no decision has been made, insists Jodi Sally, vp of marketing for Toshiba America Consumer Products. “Based on its technological advancements, we continue to believe HD DVD is the best format for consumers, given the value and consistent quality inherent in our player offerings,” she said.

But she hinted that something’s in the air. “Given the market developments in the past month,” she said, “Toshiba will continue to study the market impact and the value proposition for consumers, particularly in light of our recent price reductions on all HD DVD players.”

They also report that, for the week ending 2/10, BD took 81% of disc sales to HD DVD’s 19%. That would be a large backslide for HD DVD from the previous week’s 74:26 split, almost back to the 1/27 82:18 split. And this with heavy discounting on HD DVD players, a Super Bowl ad that reportedly cost Toshiba $2.7 million, and a number of concurrent promotions on both players and media. They also caught a few Blu studio converts that I’d missed:

Blu-ray support among independents is rising. ADV Films, Tai Seng Entertainment, Topics Entertainment and National Geographic have all confirmed they are going Blu-ray exclusive, while more than one indie that was releasing titles just on HD DVD, including Surround Records and Opus Arte, will now offer Blu-ray as well.

This is still firmly in the rumor category, but it really seems inevitable. Toshiba cannot continue to bleed red ink on every HD DVD player they sell. Their deep price cuts were also deep cuts to the corporate wrist. A desperate cry for attention - but one that doesn’t appear to have worked. The only upside could be clearing out stock from their warehouses so they aren’t stuck with too many units when they finally announce that HD DVD is dead.

Picked up from High-Def Digest.

It could be the weak Blu-ray releases last week, or it could be the result of Toshiba’s deep price cuts on their players, or, most likely, a combination of both, but HD DVD managed to claw back a bit of market share from Blu-ray last week in movie sales. Instead of last week’s 82:18 split in favor of Blu-ray, this week we have 74:26. That puts Blu-ray at 76% Year-to-Date, and 65% since inception of the two formats. HD DVD also managed to get a couple of titles in the Top 10 High-Def Sellers list. They’ve both been out for a while, Transformers and The Bourne Supremacy, so that’s most likely due to new owners catching up, or perhaps promotions.

We’ll see how they fare once Warner stops releasing HD DVDs at the end of May, not to mention their big 85th Anniversary push on DVD and Blu-ray.

The new issue of Home Media Magazine is out, complete with the Nielsen VideoScan numbers for the week ending 1/27. This time around Blu-ray took 82% of the high-def media sales to HD DVD’s 18%. Four weeks into the year that puts Blu-ray at 77% year-to-date, and at 64% since the inception of both formats. For the third week in a row, HD DVD failed to land any titles in the Top 10 High-Def Sellers list, giving Blu-ray a clean sweep.

There is also an interesting article on the format war outside of the US. High-def player adoption outside of the US has been much slower, due to higher player pricing and a later introduction of both formats. It also shows the importance of the PS3 to the format war. For the top five European countries, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK, high-def player shipments for 2007 are estimated to be 160,000, with 668,000 projected for 2008. By comparison, 2.36 million PS3s shipped in 2007, with 5.37 million expected in 2008. The PS3 certainly plays a large role in Blu-rays market dominance in European high-def media sales, even more so than in the US. In 2007 Blu-ray took a 3:1 sales lead over HD DVD for media sales in Europe. But that doesn’t match the 5:1 advantage in Australia, let alone the 9:1 advantage in Japan, which makes the 2:1 advantage in the US look not so bad for HD DVD by way of comparison.