As reported by Multichannel News, cable MSOs have deployed 4.18 million CableCARD-enabled STBs in the last nine months. 1.9 million of those have been deployed since the last industry report on December 26th. However, as of March 19th, only approximately 347,000 CableCARDs had been distributed for use in third party devices, such as TiVo and CableCARD-enabled HDTVs. The majority of the cards have been installed in cable company set top boxes, since the FCC ban on integrated-security STBs went into effect last July 1st.

Still, that’s something of a good thing. I’d bet a majority of those 347,000 devices are TiVo Series3 or TiVo HD boxes, since they’re the leading CableCARD devices on the market. And being forced to deal with CableCARD in their own STBs should force the cable MSOs to wring out lingering issues in their systems, since they have to ‘eat their own dog food’ as it were.

A couple of months ago at CES Panasonic was one of the vendors showing off Tru2way, nee OCAP, products. At the time I focused on their ‘portable DVR‘, which I still think is a poor idea. But what I didn’t mention at the time were their Tru2Way CableCARD HDTVs, which they said would be out later this year. Well, based on reports in Dealerscope and Home Theater Magazine, it looks like they’ll be true to their word. Panasonic will be introducing Tru2Way to their PX80 720p and PZ80 1080p VIERA plasma line-ups in the second half.

The first generation of CableCARD TVs, which were all unidirectional, didn’t sell well and they’ve faded to just a few models left in the market. The hope is that the new generation of CableCARD sets, with Tru2Way, will succeed where the first generation failed. With Tru2Way the TV will have all of the functionality of a non-DVR cable STB - support for Switched Digital Video (SDV), OnDemand, PayPerView, on-screen program guide, etc. It will completely replace the cable box while providing all of the same functionality, unlike the first generation which only allowed access to linear content - no SDV, VOD, PPV, EPG, etc.

In theory, Tru2Way-enabled TVs could also offer DVR functionality, either with built-in storage or an external add-on. The cable MSO could push down OCAP-based DVR software, like TiVo’s software for Comcast, to provide the DVR functionality. But that would require support in the hardware, including encoding chips to handle the analog channels. (Note that I’m talking in general here, there is no sign of the Panasonic sets having any such features!) This would all be easier with a complete digital system. Once NTSC is phased out (less than year from now), the last obstacle will be the lingering analog cable channels. If a cable MSO went 100% digital, or at least offered digital simulcast of all their channels, it would be possible to provide DVR functionality without any encoding hardware. You’d simply need to save the signal as-received, and then play it back later - and the playback hardware is already in there, of course. (This is how satellite DVRs work today, they’re 100% digital. And there are some cable DVR models like this as well, for areas where the system is already 100% digital.)

ZatzNotFunny also covered this today.

There’s an article in today’s Orlando Sentinel about Bright House cable yanking four HD channels (HGTV HD, TBS HD, The History Channel HD, and Food Network HD) away from CableCARD users who have had them since last October. It seems that Bright House never meant to give CableCARD users access to those channels, as they have plans to implement SDV and those channels will be part of the SDV selection. They just added five more HD channels, which are also destined for SDV, and as part of that update they also pulled the four channels which had been erroneously available to CableCARD customers since October. Of course, most consumers using CableCARD these days are doing so from a TiVo, and the article focuses on TiVo users, though this would impact anyone using a 3rd party CableCARD device. (But not a Bright House STB using CableCARD.)

Bright House is offering free rental of an HD cable DVR to affected users, though the article makes it sound like you need to turn in the CableCARDs to get the STB. Personally I’d want BOTH - I’d keep using the TiVo for all the linear channels, and only use their STB for the “SDV” channels. This is supposedly a temporary solution until the Tuning Resolver is available in 2Q08 to give TiVo (and other UDCP devices) access to SDV channels.

Now, I put SDV in quotes for a reason. I think Bright House is being disingenuous, if the article is correct. Based in the article it sounds like Bright House is preparing to deploy SDV and plans to move these channels to SDV, but they are not SDV currently! In other words, there is no reason all nine of these channels (the four that were taken away and the five new channels) could not be available to CableCARD users today. In fact, it seems they must have the bandwidth to support them without SDV, as they are right now, so if Bright House really wanted to do the right thing they could keep these nine channels as linear content until they deploy the Tuning Resolver. Once the Tuning Resolver is available, then they can migrate the channels to SDV and require users to get a Tuning Resolver to keep receiving them. At the very least they could do this with the four channels they accidentally made available, instead of taking them away.

So kudos to Bright House for making their HD DVR available for free until the Tuning Resolver is available, that’s actually pretty good customer service right there. But shame on them for yanking the channels in the first place and not making them available to CableCARD users in the interim before they enable SDV. Heck, put them on a special tier so people have to acknowledge that they will be migrating at some point if the concern is complaints about having the channels go unavailable to those who can’t/won’t use a Tuning Resolver at that time. Though, since they just cut off the four channels anyway, it doesn’t seem like that’s really a concern they have.

According to Multichannel News, Cisco is retiring the Scientific Atlanta brand in favor of their own. At CES next week they will be unveiling their new line of STBs, which will carry the Cisco brand in place SciAtl. Cisco acquired SciAtl in 2006 for $6.9 billion, but, until now, hasn’t changed the consumer branded on their products. Existing SciAtl product lines will retain the SciAtl branding, but all new products will be branded as Cisco gear. So the SciAtl brand will fade with time as the older product lines are refreshed. Cisco has dropped a press release about what they’ll be exhibiting at CES.

Picked up via Network World.

I recently posted about the pending shift from MPEG-2 to MPEG-4 for cable. Of course, part of that shift would have to be MPEG-4 capable cable set-top boxes. And now, according to MediaExperiences2Go, Motorola is ready to meet that need with the DCX3400 dual-tuner HD DVR, DCX3200 single-tuner HD STB, and DCX100 single-tuner SD STB. They support both MPEG-2 and MPEG-4 content, have 1GHz cable tuners to support the latest and greatest cable networks, and DOCSIS channel bonding. The DOCSIS capability will be ‘for future use’, but a data connection could support additional services, IPTV, etc. The units will also support MoCA for in-home networking, HTML, M-Card CableCARDs, and Dolby Digital Plus audio. And, unsurprisingly, they’ll support both native and OCAP software loads, which means it is likely they could run the TiVo OCAP software.

It’s that time again, the lead up to CES (which kicks off this weekend - I’ll be there) always sees a flood of press releases from all sides. The cable industry just dropped five press releases, which are mainly designed to talk up their great works, and show just how evil efforts like a la carte programming are. Surprise. But they do have some interesting raw data, so I thought I’d share that.

Cable Statistics
Basic Cable Subscribers as of June 2007 65,300,000
Cable Penetration of TV Households as of June 2007 58.3%

Cable Industry’s Investment
Cable Industry Construction/Upgrade Expenditures for 2006 $12.4 billion
Cable Industry Construction/Upgrade Expenditures for 10 years $110 billion

Cable Internet Service
Residential/Commercial Cable Internet Subscribers as of September 2007 34,657,000
Residential Cable Internet Subscribers in September 2001 5,500,000

Digital Cable
Digital Cable Customers as of September 2007 36,150,000
Digital Cable Customers in September 2001 12,200,000
Homes Passed by HDTV Service as of March 2007 110,000,000+

Digital Phone
Residential Cable Phone Customers as of September 2007 13,700,000
Residential Cable Phone Customers in September 2001 1,300,000

Education
Schools Served by Cable in the Classroom as of September 2007 81,775
Students Served by Cable in the Classroom as of 2007 44,184,380

I also love the ‘passed by’ statistics. That’s basically the number homes who could have HDTV via cable.

Let’s see, what else did they have to say… The annual increase in the average basic cable monthly rate has been less than 4% in each of the last 3 years (2005-2007). Basic cable network viewing time increased 68% from 1995 through 2005. For the 6th consecutive year, ad-supported cable is projected to best the broadcast networks in prime time, with a 55.4% household share to date, and 40.4% for the six broadcast networks combined. Cable’s bundled video, Internet, and voice service costs 23% less, when adjusted for inflation, than 10 years ago. Internet access speeds are 17,000% to 50,000% faster than 10 years ago (1996 average 28.8Kbps, today’s 5Mbps to 30Mbps available services).

Of course, they couldn’t resist some shots at the competition. They say DBS’s average price rose 8.1% from 2005 to 2006. In November, Verizon announced an increase on their core ‘FiOS Premier’ offering of 11.6% in 2008, after announcing in November 2006 a 7.6% increase.

They also took aim at a la carte programming, using all the arguments we’ve heard before. If the tiers were broken up and the cable operators couldn’t buy channels in packages, prices would go up. Consumers would end up paying more for for less - the costs per channel would rise, and cable operators would drop the channels with less demand because they wouldn’t be economical. Today lower popularity channels can be ’subsidized’ by the more popular channels in their bundle. You know, History International might get a boost from The History Channel, that kind of thing.

Having read, and heard, a lot of arguments about a la carte from both sides over the past few years, and despite my instinctive reaction that choice is good - I have to agree with cable on this one. Based on everything I’ve seen, I just don’t think a la carte is a good option. If all you watch are a few major channels - *maybe*. But if you watch a lot of cable channels, especially specialty channels, it would not be good for you. The way content is sold to the cable MSOs today, as bundles, creates economies of scale. And the content providers use that to push new channels - “If you want to carry ABC, then you MUST carry ABC Family. Or no deal” - and with the bundles gone we’d be less likely to see new channels or creative content. And channels would need some critical mass to be viable. Almost everyone would end up paying more, and getting fewer channels.

Cable is facing a bandwidth squeeze. As more and more channels go HD, cable is struggling to find the bandwidth necessary to carry them. There are four major ways cable systems can address the issue:

• Drop analog channels and reuse the frequencies for digital channels, including HD.
• Use Switched Digital Video (SDV) to only transmit content when required.
• Upgrade older 550MHz, 650MHz, or 750MHz cable systems to 860MHz or 1GHz infrastructure to increase the available bandwidth.
• Update the codec used from MPEG-2 to an advanced codec, such as MPEG-4 AVC/H.264, to reduce the bandwidth required per channel.

Cable networks have already been migrating analog channels to the digital tier, and some cable systems have already go all digital, but there is a large installed base of analog cable users on many networks. Cable MSOs need to take that into account, because upsetting their customer base by pulling their channels or forcing them to rent and STB can drive them to the competition. The switch to all digital is inevitable, but it may take years.

Switched Digital Video is already in use by a number of cable MSOs, with Time Warner notably deploying it widely and continuing to increase their use of the technology. All of the cable MSOs are looking to SDV to help alleviate bandwidth issues. SDV, of course, has conflicted with CableCARD. The Tuning Resolver will finally address that early next year. And SDV isn’t a solution for all channels, it is only effective for channels that are not in high demand.

Upgrading the cable infrastructure is certainly a good solution. The high end of cable systems today are 1GHz systems, though 860MHz is much more common for modern systems. But there are still many cable networks using older hardware with less available bandwidth. While these systems will almost certainly be upgraded during regular periodic maintenance, it is very expensive and time consuming. Not only the head end must be updated, but repeaters, etc, all through the network need to be upgraded. And the STBs used in the network must be capable of handling the higher frequency band. Due to the cost and complexity of upgrading the network this isn’t a quick solution.

And, finally, there is the option to update from MPEG-2 to an advanced codec such as MPEG-4 AVC/H.264. Using H.264, cable networks can roughly halve the bandwidth required for each channel - allowing them to carry twice as many channels in the same bandwidth. As you might suspect from the subject of this post, this is the latest direction the cable industry is headed. The satellite industry has already gone in this direction, with DirecTV and DISH Network both using MPEG-4 for their new HD channels.

As Multichannel News reports, The Society of Cable Telecommunications Engineers recently released a specification, SCTE 128 AVC Video Systems and Transport Constraints for Cable Television (PDF), describing the use of the H.264 codec on cable systems. To give you an idea as to the type of document this is, here’s the opening scope paragraph:

This document defines the video coding and transport constraints on ITU-T Rec. H.264 | ISO/IEC 14496-10 [5] video compression (hereafter called “AVC”) for Cable Television. In particular, this document describes the transmission of AVC coded video elementary streams in an MPEG-2 service multiplex (single or multi-program Transport Stream).

Yes, I read the document. Yes, I’m a geek, and it still almost put me to sleep. I find it interesting that the specification has features specifically designed to support DVR utilization, especially Appendix B “Encoding Guidelines to Enable Trick Play Support of AVC Streams (Informative)”. Actually, that appendix is kind of interesting on its own as it first covers how DVRs exploit MPEG-2 today for trick play modes, before going on to recommend how to achieve the same functionality with MPEG-4. OK, I thought it was interesting.

The cable industry is already beginning to use MPEG-4 for content distribution to the head end, but service to the home is still MPEG-2. The problem with switching to MPEG-4 is, of course, that you need devices that support MPEG-4. Most of the STBs currently deployed are MPEG-2 only. So, as with the satellite industry, the move to MPEG-4 will require deploying new STBs. This will happen organically as STBs wear out and are replaced by cable MSOs periodically anyway, and MSOs can select STBs that handle MPEG-4. As the Motorola-related blog Media Experiences 2 Go (formerly Connected Home 2 Go) posted yesterday, cable MSOs will likely start using MPEG-4 in their higher-end content tiers. In this way they could deploy MPEG-4 capable STBs to only the users who require them at first, giving them more time to expand deployment before cutting over lower content tiers to MPEG-4. This is very similar to what the satellite companies are doing, using MPEG-4 first for new content so that existing users can continue to use their MPEG-2 STBs until they wish to adopt some of the new services. This avoids requiring a mass swap-out of STBs. Motorola VP Geoff Roman had this to say:

On the cable side, you’ll start seeing MPEG-4 devices (CPE) early next year, with gradual phasing in of more MPEG-4 hardware throughout 2008. Operators will incorporate MPEG-4 in their highest service tiers first, moving to mass distribution of MPEG-4 set-tops by late 2009, early 2010. By the latter part of 2009, MPEG-2 standalone devices will have completely disappeared.

So this is no big deal for those who uses a cable provided STB - you’ll simply get a new STB from your cable provider. No muss, no fuss. But what about other devices? What about clear QAM tuners? What about CableCARD devices? Well, if they don’t have an MPEG-4 decoder they’re simply out of luck. They will not be able to tune the new content, period.

The good news is the TiVo Series3 and TiVo HD both have decoding hardware that can handle MPEG-4 AVC/H.264 (and VC-1/WMV). While it isn’t currently enabled, it will just take a software update to enable them. So these units should be able to handle any new AVC cable content without trouble.

Media Center PCs are similarly OK, even CableCARD-enabled PCs should be fine. The tuner doesn’t change, only the decoder is different. So the existing clear QAM or CableCARD tuner should work just fine. Most newer PCs already have the capability to decode AVC/H.264 video, as it is a popular codec for online content and one of the codecs used for both Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD. Some PCs may need an upgrade to handle decoding HD H.264 content - if it can’t handle BD or HD DVD content, it probably won’t handle HD cable content either. It might simply mean a new video card, but older PCs may simply be out of luck. Still, odds are most Media Center PC users will have a reasonable path to support the new content.

However, those who have purchased Digital Cable Ready (DCR) TVs with CableCARD, or who use their TV’s clear QAM tuning, are probably out of luck. Very few HDTVs have MPEG-4 decoding built-in, and thus would be unable to tune channels using the new encoding. These users would be forced to switch to an external tuner - a cable STB, TiVo, etc - to utilize this new content. That’s the price of progress. It isn’t the first time these users have faced difficulties, they can’t tune SDV content either. And most HDTVs lack a USB port, and hence will not be able to utilize the forthcoming Tuning Resolver for SDV either.

Since this is coming, and you’ll probably have MPEG-4 channels on your cable system within the next two years, if you’re in the market for a 3rd party STB I’d make sure it can handle MPEG-4 content, or that it has some upgrade path to do so. (I wonder if the new Digeo Moxi boxes do? Something to ask at CES.) Right now you’re basically looking at TiVo or a decent Media Center PC.

This will leave just broadcast ATSC stuck at MPEG-2. I don’t expect that to change in the near future. With the cut-over to digital still a year away, the industry is just finally getting switched over to MPEG-2 ATSC. And nearly all of the ATSC hardware in the field, or being sold, today is MPEG-2 - with a few exceptions such as TiVo. Broadcast will probably be stuck with MPEG-2 for a long time to come.

Don Reisinger at NewTeeVee has a quick tutorial on getting more HD resolutions out of your Scientific Atlanta cable STB. No hacking required, just a little back door into the configuration options. Pretty nifty. Via EngadgetHD.