DVR Viewing Improves Ratings – But Does It Matter?

TiVo Logo A couple of week’s back The New York Times published a story entitled “DVRs and Streaming Prompt a Shift in the Top-Rated TV Shows“. The basic premise of the article is that when you count DVR time-shifted viewing in shows ratings you may get different results than the single night ratings. And networks are now selling shows based on the ‘C3′ ratings, which count the three days following the original broadcast.

No other show on television comes close to that comedy in adding 18- to 49-year-old viewers who record shows and watch them later. So far this season, new episodes of “Modern Family” have grown from a first-day average of 7.1 million viewers in that age group to 10.2 million, counting seven days’ worth of added viewing — a gain of 3.1 million each week, according to Nielsen Research.

Total popularity does not perfectly correlate with profitability, however, since the networks all agree to sell ad time based on a metric called “C3.” It measures the average viewing of the commercials within a show within three days of the first broadcast, so it excludes people who wait to watch Wednesday’s “Modern Family” until Sunday or Monday.

And the networks are pushing to start selling ads based on a seven day window, which would improve ratings – and therefore pricing – even more.

But in a Letter to the Editor published on Tuesday, TiVo CEO Tom Rogers says “Not so fast”:

Because TiVo can measure viewership for any commercial, not just programs, we know that the majority of the commercials on “Modern Family” are not viewed when watched in recorded mode. Advertisers are being overcharged by paying commercial rates based on the program ratings and not commercial ratings. This is anything but the boon for advertiser-supported network television that the article suggests.

He’s clearly making a bit of a stealth pitch for TiVo’s Stop||Watch ratings service, which provides the kind of ratings granularity that tell advertisers if their ads are being watched or skipped. But he has a solid point nonetheless. It doesn’t matter if someone watches the program if they’re skipping the ads, not when it comes to selling ad time.

The only thing we know for sure is that the television market is changing, and I don’t think anyone has figured out the new magic formula yet. Content needs to be paid for somehow or it doesn’t get made. That’s been through advertising for many years, but is that sustainable? Just like the new reality for films includes licensing to cable networks, streaming services, home video, etc., I think TV content will need to rely increasingly on secondary revenue sources and not the initial broadcast.

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The Twisted Logic Of Copyright Math

No RIAA I caught this funny TED video through Ars Technica and I thought you’d all appreciate it. Comic author Rob Reid skewers the entertainment industry using their own numbers on claimed losses due to piracy in “Copyright Math™”. Hoist with their own petard!

Via Ars Technica.

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A Look At The Future Of Air Traffic Control

AIRBUS Logo OK, you probably saw the subject line of this post and I’m lucky you’re even reading this far, right? Air traffic control? Really? Yes, really. As much as I love airframes and engines, ATC is a vital part of our modern air transportation system. A chronically underfunded and outdated part, but vital nonetheless.

This video was posted by Airbus, as an A320 was used in this test, but it is really bigger than any one company. Most people don’t realize it, but today’s air transportation system hasn’t changed much from what we had decades ago. It was designed around radar surveillance, simple aircraft transponders, ground-based radio beacons, fixed airways, and verbal instructions to pilots. All of that is outdated, we have the technology to do a much better job.

Satellite navigation provides global coverage with more accuracy than radar or radio beacons. An intelligent broadcast system called ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast) provides more accurate information to air traffic control (called ADS-B Out) than the old transponders, and receives on aircraft (ADS-B In) can provide automated separation and sequencing. Airlines already use datagram communications with their own control centers, but ATC is still using voice. Datagrams provide more information, clearly, without misunderstanding. Computerized systems can maintain flight paths and timing far more accurately than human pilots can.

Combine all of these and you get numerous benefits. Today airliners don’t fly from point A to point B. They fly specific air corridors from point to point, beacon to beacon. Basically ‘highways in the sky’. This concentrates aircraft into limited airspace, which creates capacity issues – especially when bad weather disrupts these routes. Exacerbating this, aircraft need to be kept separated both horizontally and vertically – and due to the inaccuracies in today’s system these distances are inefficiently large.

Updated systems would allow aircraft to fly more directly from point A to point B. This saves fuel by flying shorter distances, which is better for the environment and cuts airline expenses – fuel is often their biggest expense. This can help keep ticket prices down, good for you. And the more direct routing means shorter flights, also good for you. Furthermore, modern systems can fly direct approaches to landing from cruise. Instead of a ‘staggered letdown’ with the aircraft descends in steps, using power at each step to level off and remain there, they can remain at their more efficient cruise altitude longer and then make a smooth, continuous idle-power descent to landing.

That saves more fuel from operating higher, longer (jet engines are more efficient at higher altitudes), and from the idle descent. And it saves more time by operating at cruise speed longer and having a more direct approach. It also reduces nose around the airport as the aircraft stay higher longer, and descend at idle power – meaning little engine noise.

The list goes on and on, not the least of which is increased safety. But there’s a lot of work required to get there. Today’s ATC systems need to be overhauled, or just replaced, with these newer systems, and that takes years. In the US the FAA’s efforts in this area are called NextGen, in Europe it is SESAR (Single European Sky ATM Research). They’re very similar. Some of the technologies involved are already in limited use, such as ADS-B, and RNP (Required Navigational Performance) approaches to some airports. This video focuses on a flight test of I-4D (initial four-dimensional), which is basically what is also called RNP/RNAV (Area Navigation).

The fourth dimension is time. The aircraft is given routing information with 4D checkpoints – be at this point at this time – and the FMS (Flight Management System) maintains the aircraft’s speed and course with inhuman precision, hitting these targets within seconds. This precision allows the ATC to closely schedule departures and arrivals, providing more capacity at airports. It can also replace the old ILS (Instrument Landing System) while providing more accurate approaches and new approach paths – like curves – not possible with ILS.

While it may not seem like an exciting area I think it is actually one of the more interesting and exciting areas in aerospace when it comes to the potential global impact of these technologies. But first we need to get them properly funded and adopted. Even in the best case we’re looking at 2020-2025 for widespread use. Not only do all the ground systems need to be in place, all of the aircraft need to have the proper avionics to utilize the new systems.

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The A350′s Rolls-Royce Trent XWB Begins Flight Testing

AIRBUS Logo Something else that happened while I was away (yes, I am catching up, can you tell?), the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB made it’s first test flight on February 18th, on the wing of an A380. The Trent XWB is a new engine being developed to power Airbus’ forthcoming A350 XWB wide body twin airliner, which is set to compete against the high-end of the B787 family, and the low-end of the B777 family.

XWB is a silly marketing thing which stands for eXtra Wide Body. Quick history: Boeing introduced plans for the B787 (after dropping plans for the Sonic Cruiser). Airbus dismissed it as no big deal and said they’d just update the A330. This didn’t go over well with airlines and aircraft lessors, so Airbus steadily revised their stance to increasingly radical updates to the A330, finally giving in and admitting they needed a new aircraft, the A350, to compete. But to try to give it more pizzazz they highlighted the design’s fuselage width with the ‘XWB’. Rolls-Royce jumped on the bandwagon with their engine naming, instead of giving this new model of a Trent family a number like the others.

So, right, the Trent XWB is a new engine being developed specifically for the A350. The A350 is sized between the B787 and B777, overlapping with the larger B787 models, and the smaller B777 models. Boeing and Airbus do that – rather than compete head to head, they stagger their lines. The A320 family overlaps the B737 extensively, but is slightly larger overall. But the single-aisle market is so large that they can afford to split it more directly.

The wide body market is a different story, there aren’t as many sales to go around and no one wins direct shootouts (see DC-10 vs. L-1011). The B767 is the first rung in the twin-aisle ladder, and then the A330/A340 pair are next. Then the B777, the B747, and the A380 fill in the next market segments. The B787 is replacing the B767 in the Boeing lineup, but will be larger – more directly competing with the A330/A340 market. But the A330 is being replaced by the A350, which is also larger, maintaining the staggered pattern. (The A340 is being killed off already due to low sales.)

There’s nothing dramatic in the video, which is good since dramatic test videos mean something bad happened. But it does provide for some nice eye candy of the A380 in flight. As much as I tend to prefer Boeing aircraft, it would be nice to fly on an A380 sometime. And I’m sure the A350 will be a remarkable aircraft when it flies as well. (JetBlue is my favorite domestic airline, and they only fly E190s and A320s.)

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An A380 Gets A Little – OK, A Lot Of – Paint

AIRBUS Logo A simple time-lapse video showing Malaysia Airlines’ first A380 getting painted in their new livery. I think it is kind of interesting how the stencil work is done. And just how much masking material do they go through? Does any paper (I think) get re-used? It must take a lot to wrap an A380.

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