Ben Drawbaugh over at EngadgetHD wrote up a quick overview of the ins and outs of the Blu-ray / HD DVD format war. He beat me too it - I’m thinking of writing up my own perspectives as well, since I’ve been blogging about the war since 2004 - and following it since well before then. (I’ve been a little lazy since I’m on vacation - plus I was sick as a dog Monday (food poisoning I think, unfun in any case) and busy helping my folks with stuff Tue-Wed.) If you have any interest left in the history of the war, and aren’t just trying to forget it already, check out his post. And read the comments, there are some very good comments that add some more details and perspective - and I don’t just mean my own.

That’s all folks! The fat lady has sung. The curtain has come down. The format war is over! Yes, really for real this time - it is official. Toshiba has called it quits:

Toshiba Corporation today announced that it has undertaken a thorough review of its overall strategy for HD DVD and has decided it will no longer develop, manufacture and market HD DVD players and recorders. This decision has been made following recent major changes in the market. Toshiba will continue, however, to provide full product support and after-sales service for all owners of Toshiba HD DVD products.

Toshiba will cease all production of HD DVD by the end of March:

Toshiba will begin to reduce shipments of HD DVD players and recorders to retail channels, aiming for cessation of these businesses by the end of March 2008. Toshiba also plans to end volume production of HD DVD disk drives for such applications as PCs and games in the same timeframe, yet will continue to make efforts to meet customer requirements. The company will continue to assess the position of notebook PCs with integrated HD DVD drives within the overall PC business relative to future market demand.

I’m thrilled to see the end of this war, doubly so to see Blu-ray finally carry the day. I’ve been calling the war for Blu-ray since before either product shipped, and I was sorry to see a war develop in the first place. Now that the war is over and we’ll have one format going forward I look forward to more Blu-ray title releases and player advancements. There are definitely a few Universal & Paramount titles I look forward to picking up on Blu-ray.

I’m also hopeful that Toshiba will join the BDA and devote their product development expertise toward producing top-notch Blu-ray players. Toshiba’s HD DVD players were decent hardware, and it gives hope that they’ll be able to produce some nice BD decks. I do think they’ll join the BDA, since the alternative is to sit out the next-generation disc market completely. And while Toshiba may have a healthy DVD business, I can’t see them yield the high-def market to the competition without any response. They’re statement seems to indicate they plan to remain a player:

“We carefully assessed the long-term impact of continuing the so-called ‘next-generation format war’ and concluded that a swift decision will best help the market develop,” said Atsutoshi Nishida, President and CEO of Toshiba Corporation. “While we are disappointed for the company and more importantly, for the consumer, the real mass market opportunity for high definition content remains untapped and Toshiba is both able and determined to use our talent, technology and intellectual property to make digital convergence a reality.”

Of course, there are still some unanswered questions. Will those who invested in HD DVD players recently get any compensation? (I’d guess no.) How many HD DVD owners will return their players before the return window closes? Will we see a Blu-ray drive for the Xbox 360? Would Microsoft consider bundling Blu-ray into a new model of the 360 now that there is one format, to compete more directly with the PS3? (That’s probably a stretch - but I think a BD add-on drive will happen.)

Press release picked up via EngadgetHD.

EDIT. Engadget Japan is at the Toshiba press conference. From the Q&A session:

Q: Any plans to adopt Blu-ray?
A: No plans at all, not at this moment.

Q: Are there no plans for next gen optical disc at all?
A: We don’t have any plans to announce at this time.

Of course, keep in mind that just yesterday Toshiba was stating that no final decision had been made to exit the HD DVD market. So not having any plans at this moment likely means just that - they haven’t decided exactly what they will do going forward and won’t have anything to announce until they’ve had time to formulate those plans.

Interesting to see their figures for HD DVD players sold - since it is quite a bit short of the ‘one million’ figure that the HD DVD camp oft repeated previously:

Q: How many HD DVD players and recorders, exactly, did you sell?
A: 600,000 players in the US — 300,000 of which were Xbox 360 HD DVD drives. 100,000 units were sold in Europe. And about 10,000 players and 20,000 recorders in Japan. So about 730,000 units worldwide.

EDIT 2: I see that, sometime today, Engadget edited their post and it now reads:

Q: How many HD DVD players and recorders, exactly, did you sell?
A: 600,000 players in the US and 300,000 Xbox 360 HD DVD drives. 100,000 units were sold in Europe. And about 10,000 players and 20,000 recorders in Japan. So about 1,030,000 units worldwide.

It looks like they updated it to list the 300,000 Xbox 360 drives *in addition to* the 600,000 standalone players, and not as part of that 600,000. Which puts the total just over the one million mark.

Both Japan’s NHK and Reuters are reporting that Toshiba is finally ready to concede the obvious and pull the plug on HD DVD, with an announcement to come as early as this week. Reuters cites an internal company source which told them that Toshiba is in the final stages of planning their exit from the HD DVD business and that the announcement would be made soon.

NHK reports that Toshiba plans to stop producing HD DVD players and recorders at its plant in Aomori Prefecture, northern Japan. And, of course, all future development of the format will cease. There is an extraordinary meeting of Toshiba’s board of directors early this week, and the exit plan is expected to be decided at that meeting. Toshiba will suffer a loss of tens of billions of yen, hundreds of millions of dollars, related to the termination of their HD DVD business.

Via EngadgetHD.

TWICE is reporting on a study by J.D. Power and Associates and Market Force Information which shows that retailers have been heavily promoting Blu-ray to shoppers, even before the recent announcements. In January they sent secret shoppers into 200 retail outlets posing as consumers who recently acquired an HDTV and were looking for a high-def disc player to go with it. Around 25% of sales reps didn’t recommend a format, but of the 74% who did, 89% recommended Blu-ray. And, in fact, “very strongly recommended Blu-ray, to the point that a typical customer would have had to think long and hard before buying HD DVD in the face of what salespeople are telling them about the two platforms” according to Chris Denove, J.D. Power and Associates VP.

While Best Buy announced they would officially promote Blu-ray just this past week, de facto they seem to have been promoting it as far back as at least January. In the study, not one Best Buy rep recommended HD DVD. Reps were also quick to mention the format war, and were already declaring Blu-ray the winner:

“Without even being asked about the battle for DVD supremacy, half the salespeople told our shoppers that there was a battle going on and Blu-ray either was already the winner (or would become the dominant player in the end),” [Denove] said.

“About a third of all salespeople said our shoppers should choose Blu-ray because of the strength of the companies behind Blu-ray,” Denove said.

The only advantage mentioned for HD DVD in the 200 visits was pricing, and not one sales person suggested that HD DVD might win the format war. Combo players didn’t fair well either, only 7% of sales people even suggested combo players as an option. It seems that sales people were personally so convinced that Blu-ray would win that they didn’t feel the need to suggest combo players, or HD DVD.

Via EngadgetHD.

After a few weeks of clawing back market share from Blu-ray, HD DVD had a major backslide the week ending 2/10. HD DVD fell from 26% back to 19%, giving Blu-ray 81% of the high-def media market. This puts Blu-ray at 77% Year-to-Date, and 65% since inception of the formats.

Toshiba, and the rest of the HD DVD camp, have done a wonderful job of completely ignoring the piles of bad news heaped on HD DVD over the past couple of months. They’ve continued to issue basically the same statement about how they see HD DVD as the better value, vow to continue the fight, etc. Well, the news today is perhaps the bleakest yet. Wal*Mart is dropping HD DVD completely and going Blu-ray exclusive, according to their official blog:

Enough about my family and on to the Wal-Mart plans… by June Wal-Mart will only be carrying BluRay movies and hardware machines, and of course standard def movies, DVD players, and up convert players. Not sure of the short term pricing plans, but history tells us that as more people move to a new technology prices typically go down.

Wal*Mart also issued an official statement:

Bentonville, Ark., Feb. 15, 2008 – Wal-Mart Stores, U.S. today announces that its 4,000 Wal-Mart and Sam’s Club stores will move forward this year with one hi-definition movie and hardware format: Blu-ray. The change will take place quickly over the next several months whereby the retailer will phase out HD DVD offerings and reorganize shelf space. By June, Wal-Mart stores, Sam’s Clubs, www.walmart.com and www.samsclub.com will offer only Blu-ray movies and hardware machines, as well as standard definition movies and DVD players, and up converts.

“We’ve listened to our customers, who are showing a clear preference toward Blu-ray products and movies with their purchases,” said Gary Severson, senior vice president, Home Entertainment, Wal-Mart, U.S. “With the customers best interest in all we do, we wanted to share our decision and timeline with them as soon as possible, knowing it will help simplify their purchase decision, increase selection, and increase adoption long term. We anticipate enhancing our selection with continued great values in hi-definition Blu-ray products, so our customers can further enhance their entertainment experience at home.”

Wal-Mart will continue to sell through remaining HD DVD product, but in less than 30 days customers will see a more predominant move toward Blu-ray in stores, clubs and online. As the nation’s largest retailer, Wal-Mart thoughtfully reviewed all areas and impact in making its decision, and is excited to move forward with one format and share its future plans with customers.

With Wal*Mart dropping HD DVD completely, and Best Buy focusing on Blu-ray, you have the top two retailers of consumer electronics and media both pushing Blu-ray. And Netflix, the top online rental company, is also dropping HD DVD. How many more hits can HD DVD take before they just lay down?

Picked up from CNET News.com.

The Hollywood Reporter claims that ‘reliable industry sources’ tell them Toshiba is finally ready to give up on HD DVD and will pull the plug ‘in the coming weeks’. Toshiba, of course, maintains that no decision has been made:

Officially, no decision has been made, insists Jodi Sally, vp of marketing for Toshiba America Consumer Products. “Based on its technological advancements, we continue to believe HD DVD is the best format for consumers, given the value and consistent quality inherent in our player offerings,” she said.

But she hinted that something’s in the air. “Given the market developments in the past month,” she said, “Toshiba will continue to study the market impact and the value proposition for consumers, particularly in light of our recent price reductions on all HD DVD players.”

They also report that, for the week ending 2/10, BD took 81% of disc sales to HD DVD’s 19%. That would be a large backslide for HD DVD from the previous week’s 74:26 split, almost back to the 1/27 82:18 split. And this with heavy discounting on HD DVD players, a Super Bowl ad that reportedly cost Toshiba $2.7 million, and a number of concurrent promotions on both players and media. They also caught a few Blu studio converts that I’d missed:

Blu-ray support among independents is rising. ADV Films, Tai Seng Entertainment, Topics Entertainment and National Geographic have all confirmed they are going Blu-ray exclusive, while more than one indie that was releasing titles just on HD DVD, including Surround Records and Opus Arte, will now offer Blu-ray as well.

This is still firmly in the rumor category, but it really seems inevitable. Toshiba cannot continue to bleed red ink on every HD DVD player they sell. Their deep price cuts were also deep cuts to the corporate wrist. A desperate cry for attention - but one that doesn’t appear to have worked. The only upside could be clearing out stock from their warehouses so they aren’t stuck with too many units when they finally announce that HD DVD is dead.

Picked up from High-Def Digest.

After yesterday’s announcement that Netflix is dropping HD DVD and Best Buy will promote Blu-ray, the HD DVD Promotional Group issued what seems to be their form letter response:

We have long held the belief that HD DVD is the best format for consumers based on quality and value, and with more than 1 million HD DVD players on the market, it’s unfortunate to see Netflix make the decision to only stock Blu-ray titles going forward. While the Best Buy announcement says they will recommend Blu-ray, at least they will continue to carry HD DVD and offer consumers a choice at retail.

Is it just me, or does that ‘at least’ postfix sounds desperate and pitiful? HD DVD needs to go on Jerry Springer. “Sure, he left me for another woman and told everyone he loves her more. But he said I can still cook for him and do his laundry! At least I can still be part of his life!” HD DVD needs some friends to sit them down and get them to move on. Someone stage an intervention.