Thank you Michael

Thanks for the TiVo Rewards Referral, Michael!

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Netflix To Bring Movie Streams To The TV With LG Electronics

Well, it seems like Netflix is finally making a move to bring their Internet streaming service to the TV, as hinted at in their last quarterly call, and they’d partnered with LG Electronics to do it. They’re reportedly developing a set-top box with LG Electronics which will allow users to view streaming movies directly on their TV.

Personally, as I’ve said repeatedly in the past, I think a dedicated STB is a bad move. Unless they can make it dirt cheap, and I mean $99 or less, I don’t think a dedicated client STB is a good option. Remember, this is simply a device which provides access to a service you have to pay for via your subscription. And if it is just going to handle the streaming, then it doesn’t need to be that powerful.

But it sounds like they may have taken the route I’ve suggested before, making this a service that will be included on other boxes:

The leader of online DVD rentals will be entering an increasingly crowded and confusing market when it rolls out the new device via an LG-networked player sometime in the second half of 2008.

And:

Pricing and other specific details of the LG product were not available, but a person with knowledge of the situation said LG would likely embed the receiver into its $799 dual-DVD player, which supports the competing Blu-ray and HD-DVD high-definition DVD formats.

So they may be embedding this as a thin software client into LG’s DVD and/or Blu-ray product line. That would follow from what was said on the conference call, and it seems to make more sense than producing a dedicated Netflix STB. Certainly, a DVD or Blu-ray player which also happened to support the streaming service is a much better value proposition than a single-purpose streaming STB.

Actually, that’s another issue, I don’t know that Netflix’s streaming service is going to hold up to being displayed on large screens. It certainly is not going to be HD content as very, very few people have broadband connections fast enough to stream real HD content. Even if limited to 720p using H.264 it would be tough to stream real-time without massively over-compressing the stream. This is probably going to be limited to SD content, maybe 480p streams upscaled by the player – like a DVD. In a world increasingly going HD, that seems iffy. Especially with competitors like VUDU going HD, and Amazon Unbox/TiVo expected to go HD soon as well.

On the other hand, being a streaming-only service does reduce their hardware requirements, particularly in storage, and that could make it easier for Netflix to land additional partners. All HD DVD players have network interfaces, and a growing number of Blu-ray players do as well. TiVo is still a possibility, reviving their old partnership, though likely only on the Series3 and TiVo HD as the older boxes can’t handle the newer codecs. (And streaming MPEG-2 is unlikely.) Just about any media center extender product would be a candidate too. But the first thing to come to mind for me was actually the Sling Media SlingCatcher product, now due in 2008.

Hastings said the LG partnership was the first of many such deals for Netflix. “We’d like to see a hundred Netflix-capable boxes,” he said, noting he also was exploring partnerships with makers of Internet-connected game consoles, cable and satellite companies.

Still a lot of unanswered questions. But we’ll probably see and hear some more at CES next week.

From EngadgetHD.

EDIT/UPDATE: The New York Times has an article today which offers a bit more info. It confirms that the streams will not be HD, at least initially. And it has this:

The deal with LG is something of a strategy shift for Netflix. The company had been experimenting with building its own Netflix-brand set-top box. Last spring, to help create the device, the company hired Anthony Wood, the founder of ReplayTV and a pioneer of the digital video recorder.

But Mr. Hastings said that integrating Netflix into other companies’ devices made more sense. He said Mr. Wood would soon leave Netflix to return to another company he founded, Roku.

So it does seem that Netflix had been toying with their own STB, as rumored for a while. But they came to the same conclusion I’ve expressed all along – something like this is better as a service embedded in other boxes, than part of a standalone box. Standalone boxes that do nothing but download movies have not done well – see Akimbo and Moviebeam, Akimbo morphed into a service for Windows and dropped the boxes, Moviebeam is dead. I don’t think VUDU will be successful either, unless they can sell the box for $99 or less – then maybe. But it is still better to be a value-add on a box with other features.

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Cable Cranks Up The Propaganda

It’s that time again, the lead up to CES (which kicks off this weekend – I’ll be there) always sees a flood of press releases from all sides. The cable industry just dropped five press releases, which are mainly designed to talk up their great works, and show just how evil efforts like a la carte programming are. Surprise. But they do have some interesting raw data, so I thought I’d share that.

Cable Statistics
Basic Cable Subscribers as of June 2007 65,300,000
Cable Penetration of TV Households as of June 2007 58.3%

Cable Industry’s Investment
Cable Industry Construction/Upgrade Expenditures for 2006 $12.4 billion
Cable Industry Construction/Upgrade Expenditures for 10 years $110 billion

Cable Internet Service
Residential/Commercial Cable Internet Subscribers as of September 2007 34,657,000
Residential Cable Internet Subscribers in September 2001 5,500,000

Digital Cable
Digital Cable Customers as of September 2007 36,150,000
Digital Cable Customers in September 2001 12,200,000
Homes Passed by HDTV Service as of March 2007 110,000,000+

Digital Phone
Residential Cable Phone Customers as of September 2007 13,700,000
Residential Cable Phone Customers in September 2001 1,300,000

Education
Schools Served by Cable in the Classroom as of September 2007 81,775
Students Served by Cable in the Classroom as of 2007 44,184,380

I also love the ‘passed by’ statistics. That’s basically the number homes who could have HDTV via cable.

Let’s see, what else did they have to say… The annual increase in the average basic cable monthly rate has been less than 4% in each of the last 3 years (2005-2007). Basic cable network viewing time increased 68% from 1995 through 2005. For the 6th consecutive year, ad-supported cable is projected to best the broadcast networks in prime time, with a 55.4% household share to date, and 40.4% for the six broadcast networks combined. Cable’s bundled video, Internet, and voice service costs 23% less, when adjusted for inflation, than 10 years ago. Internet access speeds are 17,000% to 50,000% faster than 10 years ago (1996 average 28.8Kbps, today’s 5Mbps to 30Mbps available services).

Of course, they couldn’t resist some shots at the competition. They say DBS’s average price rose 8.1% from 2005 to 2006. In November, Verizon announced an increase on their core ‘FiOS Premier’ offering of 11.6% in 2008, after announcing in November 2006 a 7.6% increase.

They also took aim at a la carte programming, using all the arguments we’ve heard before. If the tiers were broken up and the cable operators couldn’t buy channels in packages, prices would go up. Consumers would end up paying more for for less – the costs per channel would rise, and cable operators would drop the channels with less demand because they wouldn’t be economical. Today lower popularity channels can be ‘subsidized’ by the more popular channels in their bundle. You know, History International might get a boost from The History Channel, that kind of thing.

Having read, and heard, a lot of arguments about a la carte from both sides over the past few years, and despite my instinctive reaction that choice is good – I have to agree with cable on this one. Based on everything I’ve seen, I just don’t think a la carte is a good option. If all you watch are a few major channels – *maybe*. But if you watch a lot of cable channels, especially specialty channels, it would not be good for you. The way content is sold to the cable MSOs today, as bundles, creates economies of scale. And the content providers use that to push new channels – “If you want to carry ABC, then you MUST carry ABC Family. Or no deal” – and with the bundles gone we’d be less likely to see new channels or creative content. And channels would need some critical mass to be viable. Almost everyone would end up paying more, and getting fewer channels.

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Digital TV Converter Coupons Now Available

It is January 1, 2008 – and that means the federal government’s coupon program for digital TV converter boxes is up and running. You can apply for your coupons starting today, up to two $40 coupons per household. The boxes are expected to retail for $50 to $70, so you’ll pay $10 to $30 after the coupon. You must purchase one of the eligible boxes.

Remember, you only need these if you use an antenna to receive your TV signals and you do not have a TV or other tuner (like a high-def TiVo) that can already tune OTA digital TV signals. The converter boxes will allow older, analog-only TV’s to tune the digital signals from antenna. If you use only cable or satellite then you don’t need to worry about this at all. See DTV2009.gov for details, and NTIADTV.gov for a bit more technical info.

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Another Amazon Buy One, Get One Free Blu-ray Sale

Amazon is running what may be their largest Buy One, Get One Free Blu-ray disc sale yet, with 96 titles to select from. There is a limit of two of any given title per customer, and 25 free titles per order. (Some limit, that’s 50 discs total.) And since that’s per order, I suppose you can always place multiple orders if you need more than 50 of the titles. Quantities are limited, so don’t wait to order. Via Blu-ray.com.

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