Conference Details:
UBS 39th Annual Global Media and Communications Conference
New York, NY
Monday, December 5th, 2011
1:30 PM ET
Tom Rogers, President and CEO

Conference Details:
NASDAQ OMX 27th Investor Program
London, United Kingdom
Wednesday, December 7th, 2011
11:15 AM GMT
Tom Rogers, President and CEO

• DirecTV will finally release the new THR22 DirecTiVo in “early December”.
• Charter will be launching retail “very soon”.
• Comcast OnDemand support is in field trials now.

I think the DirecTiVo news is the most anticipated, so in TiVo’s own words:

Additionally, DirecTV has informed us that they intend to initiate the launch of the TiVo-DIRECTV product in select markets in December with a nationwide rollout to follow early next year.

Still, don’t set your expectations too high. We know the new DirecTiVo is based on the old HR22 DVR and it will lack a number of features found in the current DirecTV DVRs. DirecTV really doesn’t seem to want to release it, but they’re obligated to do so. They’re clearly focused on their in-house units with their five-tuner DVR, new HD UI, and whole-home support.

In other news, TiVo has had their first increase in total subscriptions in four years – adding 117,000 subscribers compared to a 33,000 loss last quarter. This is mainly thanks to Virgin Media’s runaway success, but also growth from RCN & Suddenlink. With ONO, Grande Communications, and Charter coming online, and the new DirecTiVo finally shipping, the MSO subscribers will become even more significant going forward. And TiVo indicated further MSO deals are pending, with TiVo having responded to several Request for Proposals.

Conversely, the retail side continues to slide. They added 30,000 new subscribers, but lost 60,000 old ones – for a 30k net loss. MSOs actually added 147,000 – the lower 117,000 net add is due to this loss. The good news is the new subscribers are worth more to TiVo as the higher monthly fees increase revenue per customer. If & when Comcast launches VOD support on TiVo and provides some marketing and free installations, as promised, it may help the retail numbers. But it seems clear the MSO side of the house is going to be the real growth engine.

Oh, there was one other interesting point. Rogers mentioned that most of TiVo’s development now serves both MSO & retail. They’re building a common code base for all platforms, MSO and retail, to better leverage their R&D spending. In the past the two sides operated pretty much independently. Remember the soft-TiVo product for Comcast & Cox was a completely new Java code base. While retail boxes remained on the conventional development path. Now MSO & retail units will be running common, if not identical, software and hardware will also be shared.

We’re already seeing that with the TiVo Premiere Q for MSOs and TiVo Premiere Elite for retail. It is basically the same box with a different hard drive capacity. And the 14.x software used by MSOs, such as RCN, and the retail units is from a common base. This means that any feature TiVo develops can be released to retail and offered to their MSO partners simultaneously – contractual issues permitting of course. (See Netflix being unavailable on MSO units.) It is also makes things more efficient, you don’t need two development teams both implementing the same thing on different platforms. Even the software for Virgin Media and ONO, which runs on third party hardware, appears to be from the common code base.

One thing I was hoping to hear, but didn’t, was news on the TiVo Preview coming to retail. I really want this and it is annoying that it is available to MSOs but not retail. It is the perfect companion to the TiVo Premiere Elite.

Overall though, I thought it was a pretty good quarter.

But, IMHO, the real big news came at the 08:01 mark when Tom said:“Our deal with DirecTV is moving toward launch with the DirecTV TiVo HD DVR now being manufactured. And we expect DirecTV to publicly share specific launch details in the relatively near future.” I know we’ve had numerous release date promises in the past, but DirecTV isn’t going to begin manufacturing hardware if they don’t have pretty damn solid plans to release it. Perhaps the new HD DVR DirecTV obliquely referred to on their recent financial call really was the new DirecTiVo after all.

Later in the call, during the Q&A session at the 42:26 mark Rogers talks a bit about the agreement with DirecTV including the“significant marketing obligations” DirecTV has once the new unit launches. He added that DirecTV will“have plenty of incentive to market based on those obligations.”

And finally, at the 46:42 mark he is asked about the 08:01 statement regarding the new DirecTiVo being in manufacturing, specifically if that means the code had been accepted. In response Rogers stated:“…the boxes are in the manufacturing process with our code having been delivered…” So it sounds like things really are, finally, moving forward to release and based on the statements on the call I think we’ll see the units released this year.

I’m not going to place a bet on it though. Not just yet.

As for the financial results in general, TiVo’s MSO business is starting to show positive results.

                                TIVO INC.
                               OTHER DATA

                                                      Three Months Ended
Subscriptions                                              July 31,
                                                     --------------------
            (Subscriptions in thousands)                2011       2010
                                                     ---------  ---------
TiVo-Owned Subscription Gross Additions:                    25         32        

        Subscription Net Additions/(Losses):
TiVo-Owned                                                 (43)       (48)
MSOs/Broadcasters                                           10        (77)
                                                     ---------  ---------
  Total Subscription Net Additions/(Losses)                (33)      (125)
Cumulative Subscriptions:
TiVo-Owned                                               1,165      1,366
MSOs/Broadcasters                                          763      1,018
                                                     ---------  ---------
  Total Cumulative Subscriptions                         1,928      2,384
% of TiVo-Owned Cumulative Subscriptions paying
 recurring fees                                             57%        56%

So while they continue to bleed TiVo-owned subs, losing a net 43,000 this quarter – which was down from a loss of 48,000 a year earlier, the MSO subs grew by a net 10,000. That’s an improvement of 87,000 from the loss of 77,000 subs a year earlier. I’m sure a lot of that reversal is due to Virgin Media alone adding over 50,000 subscribers, with the rest contributed by RCN, Suddenlink, & TiVo in ANZ and likely reduced losses from DirecTV. Also a positive, the average revenue per MSO subscriber increased from $1.20 a year ago to $1.94. Clearly the new subscribers are worth more to TiVo.

Update: While I was writing up this post, Dave Zatz also posted at Zatz Not Funny. The biggest piece of evidence is this new DirecTV training video which DBSTalk members noticed, and that Engadget obtained and posted:

Unfortunately the video confirms some of the earlier rumored information. It does look like the hardware is similar to the old HR-22 DirecTV DVR. The video confirms that the units do not support multi-room viewing. They do support networking and other DirecTV network-based features, so whole home support could theoretically be added via a software update. And the UI appears to be the old SD UI, as first reported a couple of years back. There had been some hope that all of the delays meant the unit had been updated. On the other hand, the new box appears to come with the same remote as the TiVo Premiere.

Furthermore, Zatz Not Funny received an anonymous comment claiming the new units will be delivered on 9/25/11. Though perhaps there is another model in the pipeliine, as rumored at DBSTalk.

TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ: TIVO) announced today that it will release financial results for second quarter ending July 31, 2011 after market close on Wednesday, August 24, 2011.

TiVo will host a conference call and webcast to discuss the second quarter financial and operating results as well as guidance outlook for the third quarter at 2:00 pm PT (5:00 pm ET) on the same day. To listen to the discussion, please visit www.tivo.com/ir and click on the link provided for the webcast. The webcast will be archived and available through August 31, 2011.

* TiVo received compensation in the amount of approximately $105 million in initial litigation damages from EchoStar
* Net Income for the third quarter was $100.6 million compared to a loss of ($8.3) million in the year-ago quarter. Excluding the EchoStar damages award net loss would have been ($0.9) million.
* Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $95.3 million, compared to $0.2 million in the year-ago quarter. Excluding the EchoStar damages award Adjusted EBITDA would have been $7.5 million.
* TiVo partners with Netflix to stream its library of over 12,000 videos directly to the TV
* Comcast announces roll out of TiVo service to additional markets
* TiVo extends distribution agreement with DIRECTV; TiVo is now partnered with three of the top five television distributors in the U.S.
* Partnership with Nero brings TiVo to the PC viewing experience

There are some other items that can be gleaned from TiVo’s statement. Back in September when TiVo announced their renewed DirecTV relationship it wasn’t clear just what form that relationship would take, but at the time I said:

The phrasing “a version of the TiVo service for DIRECTV’s broadband-enabled HD DVR platform” makes me think that it will be similar to the platform developed for Comcast and Cox, software that can be loaded on the existing units. Since DirecTV doesn’t have an OCAP/tru2way-style platform, it would probably be a new software load which would replace the default system software.

And phrasing in today’s announcement makes me think so even more:

We also recently signed a new agreement with DIRECTV with which we’ve had a very successful history. With the new deal, DIRECTV will begin marketing a version of the TiVo service that is built on DIRECTV’s broadband-enabled HD DVR platform. This exciting new product will allow DIRECTV customers to select a TiVo DVR for use with all of DIRECTV’s high definition programming.

If they can deliver a software load to turn existing DirecTV HD DVR Plus models into TiVo boxes I think that’d be a big advantage. It would probably win back a lot of the former DirecTiVo user who gave in and got DirecTV’s DVRs to access HD content.

See the press release and trend sheet for all the gory details.

TiVo Inc. (Nasdaq: TIVO) announced today that it will release financial results for the third quarter ended October 31, 2008 after the market closes on Tuesday, November 25, 2008.

TiVo will host a conference call and webcast to discuss its third quarter financial and operating results and guidance outlook for the fourth quarter at 2:00 pm P.T. (5:00 pm E.T.) on the same day. To listen to the discussion, please visit http://www.tivo.com/ir and click on the link provided for the webcast. The webcast will be archived and available through December 2, 2008.

- Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $10.6 million compared to a loss of $(11.2) million in the year-ago quarter, exceeding guidance
- Net Income for the second quarter was $2.9 million compared to a loss of $(17.7) million in the year-ago quarter
- TiVo service on Comcast now available in Connecticut; Comcast will also continue to fund development work for the TiVo product to expand the feature set and add support for the Tru2way infrastructure
- TiVo and Entertainment Weekly join forces to connect TV viewers with their favorite shows on an automatic basis
- TiVo successfully launched in Australia by Seven Networks
- YouTube videos now available on the TiVo service; TiVo now provides access to more television and broadband content choices than any other offering in the world
- TiVo’s recent research deal with media marketing research firm TRA ties anonymous viewing behavior to product purchases in millions of homes; Significantly changing the quality of information available to marketers

TiVo is continuing to bleed subscribers, which was expected. With DirecTV continuing to push their in-house HR20/21 DVRs are upgrades for DirecTiVo users, even with additions from Comcast, Cox, and Cablevision Mexico, TiVo lost 136,000 net MSO/Broadcaster subscribers. And while TiVo added 36,000 gross TiVo-owned subscribers, they lost 78,000 gross TiVo-owned subs, for a net loss of 42,000 TiVo-owned subscribers. This is mainly due to legacy subscribers upgrading to HDTV and opting for cable or satellite DVRs. This leaves TiVo with 1.686 million TiVo-owned subscriptions and 3.623 total cumulative subscriptions.

This may sound bad, but it is also partly because TiVo has made massive cuts in their marketing efforts to focus on profitability instead of subscriber growth. For the quarter just ended their subscriber acquisition cost was only $135, a massive decrease from the $758 of a year ago, and only a slight up-tick from the $118 of last quarter. Instead of lots of marketing, subsidies, and rebates, which drive up SAC, TiVo is focusing on working with retailers and other vendors to bundle TiVo with HDTV purchases to capture those upgraders before they pick up another DVR. They’re also focusing on their partnerships with Cablevision Mexico, Comcast, Cox, and Seven Network in Australia.

And in that area things are looking good. The TiVo launch in Australia with Seven Network has been going well and TiVo is happy with it, though actual figures have not been released. And Comcast is finally ready to start a major marketing push and to announce more territories:

In regards to our mass distribution strategy, a top Comcast executive offered the following comments on the progress the TiVo on Comcast service has made to date: “We are pleased with the progress of the TiVo service and have broadened its footprint in our New England market to Connecticut. Refinements to optimize the product’s performance have been mostly completed, significantly improving the user experience. Importantly, we intend to light up a full marketing campaign around TiVo in September and, upon this occurring, we will be announcing multiple additional markets to which TiVo will be rolled out through next year. We will also continue to fund development work for the TiVo product, which will include expanding the feature set and adding support for Tru2way infrastructure.”

Rogers stated, “Additionally, the TiVo service on Cox, which is currently in trials, is on track for a launch in Cox’s New England market later this year.”

“On the international front, Seven and TiVo successfully launched the TiVo service in Australia and because of the significant consumer demand there, retailers chose to release the product early. We are also extremely pleased with the marketing shoulder Seven is putting behind this launch as they’ve prominently featured TiVo in their marketing and programming including the Olympic opening ceremonies, their top rated morning show, and a special advertising spot they developed, which includes dozens of Australian celebrities. International distribution is an increasingly important component of our business model and there continues to be tremendous interest from international distributors for the TiVo offering.”

During the Q&A session when asked if Comcast had gotten to the point where they don’t require a truck roll for the TiVo software install, Rogers answered that that issue was a dependency on non-TiVo software and that Comcast was close to deploying the solution. It sounded like that was the gating factor for Comcast to launch the marketing effort, and that also helps explain Comcast’s satisfaction despite the delays, it doesn’t sound like it was TiVo’s problem.

During the Q&A session at the end of the call, Rogers once again mentioned a tru2way TiVo box, what the user community has started calling a ‘Series4′. He didn’t offer any specifics (unsurprisingly), but his feeling is that it will take more time for the industry to establish a national tru2way playing field to make it viable to release such a product. Personally I think that they may show something, prototype perhaps, at CES in January with the release for later in 2009 as most of the cable MSOs have pledged to have tru2way in place by July, 2009. Just my speculation.

You can get more information from TiVo’s release and key metrics.

An overview:

- TiVo posts record quarter for Net Income and Adjusted EBITDA
- Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter was $11.1 million, exceeding guidance and compared to $6.7 million in the year-ago quarter
- Net Income for the first quarter was $3.6 million compared to $835 thousand in the year-ago quarter and EPS for the first quarter was $0.04 compared to $0.01 in the year-ago quarter
- Favorable ruling in EchoStar patent infringement case upheld; EchoStar’s petition for rehearing en banc denied
- Disney directly signs with TiVo making all the major movie studios’ content available to TiVo users
- TiVo teams with Chicago Tribune to reinvent newspaper model on TV coverage

You can get the full press release here.

- Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $1.0 million compared to a loss of $15.0 million in the year-ago quarter, exceeding guidance
- Fiscal year 2008 Adjusted EBITDA closes in on breakeven
- Net loss for the fourth quarter was $6.4 million compared to a loss of $19.5 million in the year ago quarter
- Fiscal year 2008 net loss significantly better than prior year
- Favorable ruling in EchoStar patent infringement case; damages and injunction upheld
- Announced today Cox tech trial underway; New England to be first market
- Comcast fully launched in New England; integrated marketing has begun
- Added Omnicom Media Group to list of major advertising agency research clients
- Added CBS to list of networks and advertisers signing on to TiVo audience research

So they far exceeded the street’s estimates. The net loss per share was $.06, while the consensus estimates were for $.11. Last year the loss was $.20 per share. For the full year of fiscal 2008 TiVo had a net loss of $31.5 million, or $.32 per share, compared to $47.8 million, or $.53 per share for fiscal 2007.

Some interesting bits. They’ve begun to recognize Product Lifetime revenue on units sold prior to November 1, 2007 over a period of 54 months instead of the 48 months they’ve used until now, and on units sold since then it is now spread over 60 months, in recognition of the boxes remaining in service longer on average.

But Roger’s statements are the most interesting to me:

“In terms of our mass distribution strategy, we continue to focus on increasing subscriptions through significant partnerships with leading MSOs in the U.S. and internationally. On that front, the TiVo service on Comcast is now operational in New England, Comcast’s largest market with almost two million subscribers. Comcast is marketing the services to these subscribers and we expect marketing of the product to increase as Comcast gains greater experience with the offering.

“In addition, we are announcing today that the TiVo service on Cox is currently in tech trials and we will be launching in Cox’s New England market. With both Comcast a reality and Cox in trial, our mass distribution strategy is making significant in-roads, effectively unleashing the power of TiVo beyond the confines of a dedicated hardware consumer electronic business.

“Along these lines, cable operators are beginning to realize the benefits of providing their customers with a feature set that goes beyond the applications that they have been offering to this point. In this regard, we are working in conjunction with CableLabs toward creating a standalone box that would be capable of providing the two way services provided by cable operators. In addition, we continue to stay ahead of the curve in this area, and have progressed on our work with the National Cable Television Association to make certain that not only will TiVo HD DVR users be able to access programming channels delivered using switched digital technology, but also that the cable industry is involved in making the TiVo installation process easier for consumers.

So two announcements in there. Cox is now officially in trials and will be deploying first in New England. That’s good news. But the big news is that TiVo just confirmed that they are developing the hybrid TiVo/OCAP box with two-way capabilities, which had been rumored earlier. And he effectively reiterated the focus on the Tuning Resolver to enable SDV support on today’s CableCARD TiVos.

I think I know why they’re doing that website survey too:“We are also in the process of re-launching TiVo.com so that we can more effectively market TiVo in the most efficient way possible.” So they’re probably gathering feedback as part of the relaunch effort.

See the full release for a lot more details.

Personally, I’m curious to see if TiVo CEO Tom Rogers has anything to say about TiVo & DirecTV now that the Liberty Media acquisition of the latter is complete. He’s hinted at a possible reconciliation once the deal was closed during past financial calls. I’m also curious about the pending Australian roll-out, which is supposed to happen this month.

ALVISO, Calif., Feb 20, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX News Network/ — TiVo Inc. (Nasdaq: TIVO) announced today that it will release fourth quarter and fiscal year ending January 31, 2008 financial results after market close on Wednesday, March 5, 2008.

TiVo will also host a conference call and webcast to discuss the fourth quarter and fiscal year end financial and operating results as well as guidance outlook for the current quarter at 2:00 pm PT (5:00 pm ET) on the same day. To listen to the discussion, please visit http://www.tivo.com/ir and click on the link provided for the webcast. The webcast will be archived and available through March 12, 2008.

• Adjusted EBITDA was $0.3 million, considerably ahead of guidance
• Net loss was ($8.2) million
• Goal of getting closer to Adjusted EBITDA breakeven for the year on track
• Announced relationship with NCTA and cable industry to enable cable operator installation and other support for TiVo standalone boxes
• Entered into strategic partnership with NBC to provide their advertisers with a comprehensive set of interactive advertising and audience research solutions
• Deal with Nero to bring the TiVo experience to the PC user
• Bolsters international presence with launch of TiVo service at retail in Canada

My business trip to Omaha got extended – instead of returning Monday night I’m here through Friday, perhaps longer – so I was at the customer site this afternoon and couldn’t listen in to the call live. I’ve just been able to listen to the recording back at my hotel. There are a few interesting items, aside from the previously announced SDV solution, NBC Universal deal, Carat deal, Nero partnership for PC software, and the move into the Canadian retail market.

In Tom Rogers’s presentation he stated that the Comcast up-charge for the TiVo software is $2.95/month, officially confirming what had been previously reported. And, as he said:“Our service on Comcast is now available in some non-employee subscriber homes, and full marketing efforts will begin shortly.” Comcast will also market the TiVo software through packaged bundles and ‘win back’ offers – which are specials designed to attract those who may have switched from cable to other services (FiOS, satellite, etc) back to cable. Rogers also touted Tivo’s deal with Windstream to market TiVo to their three million users.

He confirmed that the Nero deal will deliver TiVo’s “unique user interface” to PC users, which is a good sign. He also indicated that most of the sales for the PC product are expected to be outside the US.

TiVo seems to be confident that some resolution to the EchoStar lawsuit will be reached soon. Indications have been that EchoStar will seek a settlement ahead of the ruling on their appeal.“In terms of litigation, our case against EchoStar is moving closer to resolution. We were pleased with our presentation of oral arguments before the Court of Appeals and believe that our arguments were well presented on appeal.” The general feeling is that EchoStar will lose the appeal if it goes to a ruling, so they may wish to reach a more favorable settlement before their hand is forced.

Financially, TiVo blew away street estimates with a loss of only $.08 per share. Leading up to the report I’d seen estimates anywhere from $.11 to $.17 per share. TiVo added 69,000 gross TiVo-owned subscriptions in the quarter, with a net addition of 4,000 TiVo-owned subscriptions. TiVo lost 130,000 DirecTV subscribers in the quarter, which isn’t surprising as DirecTV has continued to roll-out their new MPEG4 HD channels, which require non-TiVo hardware. While the number of fully amortized lifetime subscribers continues to climb, to 190,000, so does the percentage of users paying recurring fees – now 60%. Total TiVo owned subscriptions now stand at 1.712 million, still slightly down from the peak of 1.727. And total subscriptions are 4.067 million, down from the peak of 4.444 million – though the Comcast roll-out should help slow, and perhaps reverse, that slide in the coming months. TiVo-owned subscriptions are worth much more to TiVo, with an Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) of $9.04, while non-TiVo-owned subs have an ARPU of $.91.

There is some hope that relations with DirecTV might continue to improve, possibly bringing TiVo back as their DVR vendor. A settlement with EchoStar could conceivably extend as far as TiVo becoming the DVR provider for Dish Network, but I think it is more likely that EchoStar would simply license the patents.

On the cable front, TiVo seems to be getting quite chummy with the NCTA. In addition to the SDV solution and their new attitude toward OCAP on TiVo hardware, the cable industry has agreed to be involved in TiVo installations for CableCARD and the SDV Tuning Resolver. One of the biggest headaches for users of the TiVo Series3 and TiVo HD has been the pain of the CableCARD install. If this agreement truly does result in better training of cable installers, and better support for TiVo users, that will be a good thing indeed.

During the Q&A at the end of the call Rogers mentioned that Boston is Comcast’s largest market, so they’re launching TiVo in their largest market right from the start, which is a big deal. It does sound like Comcast will be making a big push on the TiVo software when they do finally make the general launch in Boston.

Overall it seemed to be a good call, but not many surprises or things we weren’t already aware of.

TiVo Inc. (Nasdaq: TIVO) announced today that it will release financial results for the third quarter ended October 31, 2007 after market close on Wednesday, November 28, 2007.

TiVo will also host a conference call and webcast to discuss the third quarter financial and operating results and guidance outlook for the current quarter at 2:00 pm PT (5:00 pm ET) on the same day. To listen to the discussion, please visit http://www.tivo.com/ir and click on the link provided for the webcast. The webcast will be archived and available through December 5, 2007.

The full release is here.