This acquisition has spurred talk in some circles about TiVo’s fate. Why? Well, a number of people think TiVo is a candidate for a buyout. TiVo still has a poison pill to prevent a hostile takeover, but that is expiring in November. And even with the pill in place the BoD can accept a buyout offer at any time without triggering the pill. The pill just helps prevent hostile bids.

There has been speculation that Google could be a suitor. TiVo has a history with hardware, a successful DVR platform, and deals with MSOs. All things Google could use to beef up Google TV – but now all things they have in Motorola, only moreso.

On the other hand, TiVo is involved with patent lawsuits with Verizon (who uses Motorola HW) and AT&T (who also uses Motorola HW), having recently finally settled with Dish Network for $500 million. If Google feels that they may have a liability in these suits, it is possible that they would seek to have them settled as part of the acquisition. Possibly even buying TiVo in order to do so, along with acquiring their patents which could be useful for Google TV and Motorola’s own DVRs. Though I think that’d be a drastic step to take, they could likely settle with TiVo for less than the cost of a buyout. They’d really have to see value in owning the whole package to go that far.

Personally, while my dream marriage would be Google buying TiVo and integrating it into Google TV, I think that is much less likely to happen now that Google has MMI – on top of their recent SageTV acquisition. They’ll have everything they need to roll their own super STB in house once the Motorola deal closes.

On the other hand, if I’m Cisco, Motorola’s largest competitor in the STB market, I might be looking to beef up my product offering. Cisco and TiVo already work together – Cisco is providing the hardware for Virgin Media in the UK and ONO in Spain. So they have a solid track record. Cisco’s STB software has perhaps a worse reputation than Motorola’s, and offering a TiVo-based solution could be a real shot in the arm for them. Especially if Google does push Google TV onto Motorola DVRs.

Cisco also has a retail presence through Linksys, and increasingly under their own brand. They’re familiar with STB hardware, DVRs, retail, and TiVo’s software. They could conceivably add the TiVo Premiere, Premiere XL, Premiere Elite, and Preview to their STB lineup as is for both retail and MSOs. Motorola did something similar when they offered a couple of Moxi-based DVRs and the MoxiMate to MSOs. Those units were unlike any others in their lineup. That would be a rapid way for Cisco to offer a TiVo-based solution, and then they could incorporate the interface into their other STBs going forward.

Of course, that’s all pure speculation. Cisco seems to have little to lose in buying TiVo though. There’s nothing to upset the existing MSO deals in the US, or in most other countries. Most of the foreign TiVo deals are using TiVo developed or Cisco HW already. It could cause some friction with the DirecTV deal as that is using Technicolor HW, same for the Scandinavian deal with Canal Digital, but that could be addressed in contracts. And even if it killed the deals, I think Cisco could live with it. The DirecTV deal is approaching two years past due now and there’s reason to be skeptical about it ever coming to fruition at this point anyway.

I don’t think it would cause an issue for deals like the Best Buy Insignia TVs as there is no direct competition with any Cisco products. They’re complimentary, not competitive.

On the other hand it would give Cisco’s STB product line a boost when trying to land deals with MSOs against Motorola, especially if the latter gets Google TV.

In light of the Google-Motorola deal, as pure speculation, I think I’d consider Cisco the leading candidate to acquire TiVo at this point. I don’t necessarily think it will happen, just that if anyone did I’d put them in the lead.

As for other suitors that have been speculated on.

Apple – No way. They have a strong ‘Not Invented Here’ culture. TiVo is Linux based, Apple uses BSD, it’d be a major rewrite to bring TiVo over to iOS to merge it with Apple TV or the like. And Apple is all about providing content silos via iTunes, I’m not sure a DVR fits their plans.

Microsoft – Doubtful. MS is mildly allergic to Linux. They already have Media Center and successful IPTV STB software – AT&T runs on it. They also have the Xbox 360 for OTT content. Media center extenders are neglected, but still out there too. If MS wanted to get into the DVR business I think they’d roll their own based on their existing STB software before buying TiVo.

Rovi – Maybe. Rovi, formerly known as Macrovision Solutions Corporation, has several product lines, including software for set top boxes. If they had an inclination to get into DVRs and get onto more MSO boxes, they might do so via TiVo.

Dish Network or EchoStar – Doubtful. There was speculation that they may buy TiVo as a way to settle their long-running lawsuit. But now that they’ve settled the case I don’t see Dish or EchoStar having a good reason to buy TiVo. EchoStar already has one of the better DVR platforms out there, along with Slingbox, so they have little to gain in a buyout.

DirecTV – Doubtful. With the new DirecTiVo sliding further and further to the right, DirecTV hardly seems excited about TiVo. They already have a deal in place that covers TiVo’s patents, and they seem to be happy evolving their own DVRs. And they already acquired ReplayTV’s IP a few years back, so they have DVR patents of their own too.

I’ve seen other speculation – that NDS might buy them to kill the competition off or that Comcast (or another MSO) will buy them to monopolize the TiVo interface on their network, etc. But all of those seem even less likely to me.

Right now, I think Cisco would gain the most from acquiring TiVo.

Of course, then again, Cisco has been pulling back from consumer products, such as in shutting down Flip. So I might be completely off base.

But, like I said, this is all just speculation. It is fun to talk about, but I’m not going to put down money on any of these deals happening.

So, what do you think? What does the Google-Motorola deal mean for TiVo, if anything? Or who do you think might be a suitor for TiVo? Or do you think that’s backwards and TiVo is going to use part of their $500 million award from EchoStar/Dish to buy someone else? Or just grow organically?

Leave a comment with your thoughts!

Verizon had previously started allowing self-installs. With the August first deadline looming, will the other major players roll out self-install support on time? Will the rest of the MSOs wait until the last minute? Have you spotted any of them rolling out CableCARD self install support already? If so, let me know!

The Time Warner DVR box model was free, and the service cost $7.95/month. Also I was excited at the possibility of finally getting high definition content on my Sony HDTV. I asked some friends who used it and they seemed happy with it.

But the reality of the situation was not so rosy:

I can sum up my experiences with the Time Warner DVR in one word: Argh!

Ed enumerates the myriad of issues he experienced with the cable DVR in his article at ZDNet. From the terrible button-farm remote with unintuitive controls, to the lack of a priority list for the DVR’s version of Season Passes, to odd quirks during normal use (like the screen blacking when you pause playback and having trouble resuming playback), and more. And it sounds like his family agreed:

After two weeks of this I decided enough was enough. The family all agreed. We wanted TiVo!

Ed considered paying the $150 repair fee, which would really see him upgraded to a Series2DT with his lifetime transferred. But he’d had a taste of HD and native digital cable support, so he instead opted for the TiVo HD. After ordering his new TiVo HD, but before it shipped, TiVo announced the TiVo HD XL.

Knowing a good thing when he sees it, Ed canceled the TiVo HD and ordered a TiVo HD XL.

I think TiVo should send a nice thank you gift to Time Warner and Cisco/Scientific Atlanta for providing such a crappy DVR. The bad experience helped turn a potential lost customer with a dead TiVo into a high-end customer with the latest and greatest TiVo. Cisco’s bad DVR was good for TiVo.

As recently revealed, the new 9.4 TiVo update includes Tuning Adapter support, so TiVo users will be ready for the TAs as soon as the cable MSOs make them available. As Bright House, Cox, Time Warner, and others all implementing SDV, the TAs will be increasingly important. Pricing for customers is not yet known, except for Cox which announced plans to provide the TAs to their customers free of charge.

They’re actually have a sale on a number of Western Digital external drives, if you’re also looking for more capacity on your PC:
Western Digital 750GB My Book Essential Edition USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $139.99
Western Digital Elements 500GB USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $89.99
Western Digital 500GB My Book Essential USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $96.99
Western Digital 320GB My Passport Elite USB 2.0 Portable Hard Drive – Bronze $148.99
Western Digital 1TB My Book Essential USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $197.99
Western Digital 500GB My DVR Expander eSATA External Hard Drive $149.99
Western Digital 320GB My Book Essential II USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $79.99
Western Digital My Book Home Edition 1TB – Triple Interface (USB 2.0, eSATA & FireWire 400) External Hard Drive $237.99

Still, progress is being made. Be patient a little while longer all you folks with SDV issues.

The HDTiVo Blog picked it up from there (which is where I found the link to the HD GURU post). Gizmodo also picked up the story, though I have a nit to pick:“Our friend Gary Merson, the HD Guru, has uncovered an issue that may soon piss you off.” Uncovered? Gizmodo hasn’t been paying attention, blogs such as this one, Zatz Not Funny, and others have mentioned the SDV issue and Tuning Resolver repeatedly for quite a while now. Just one example, the issue with Bright House cable pulling channels, and then returning them. This is hardly a surprise issue if you’ve been paying attention. And, unfortunately, Gizmodo repeated the errors from the original post.

Anyway, CableLabs responded to Gizmodo’s original post, and Gizmodo shared the information in a follow-up post. I’m glad a statement came out of it to help clarify things a bit, and correct the misconceptions.

Over at Zatz Not Funny, Dave Zatz chimed in on the SDV Tuning resolver issue as well. Including a link to the most solid, and best, news to come out of the whole thing, at Media Experiences 2 Go. Mari Silbey of Motorola reports that Motorola’s Tuning Resolver implementation, now officially the MTR700, has sailed through CableLabs interoperability testing ‘with flying colors’. The next step is CableLabs certification testing with product submission in April in preparation for the certification board meeting in June. So, presuming the device gets certified, it will be ready at the end of June. Which means it would be very unlikely to make the 2Q2008 release schedule, but will probably be available in early 3Q08. Motorola will be exhibiting the MTR700 at The Cable Show in New Orleans in May. While it may not seem that way to those awaiting a solution, the development of the Tuning Resolver has been extremely fast for a new piece of hardware. The cable industry is really fast-tracking development to get the Tuning Resolver out there as fast as possible. Now it is up to the consumer electronics industry to provide compatible firmware for CableCARD devices with USB ports. (TiVo is, of course, already on board.)

Back in November when the Motorola Tuning Resolver was first revealed, it was noted that it strongly resembled their DCT700 cable box. The MTR700 model number seems to indicate the commonality is more than cosmetic.

Picked up via Network World.

Second, the Scientific Atlanta deal helped Cisco find an ally in TiVo, the digital video recording company. “The combination of Scientific Atlanta technology and market girth and the user-friendly TiVo graphical user interface provides software and usability expertise,” Sizemore said.

And:

According to Sizemore, the Scientific Atlanta buy can vault Cisco into the interactive advertising market by enabling IP on set-top boxes. That method can give Cisco the ability to leverage its enterprise expertise to create a two-way marketing and sales engine directly into the living room, using a familiar and friendly interface from TiVo.

This is interesting because my impression is that TiVo and Cisco/Scientific Atlanta aren’t really partnered, but rather Comcast is funding development of the TiVo OCAP software to run on the SciAtl cable boxes. I’m sure that, as part of that effort, TiVo is working with SciAtl engineers on platform specifics, but this article makes it sound like a much closer relationship. It makes me wonder if the author, or at least the person he’s quoting, is reading too much into things, or if he knows more than has been public.

However, the just delivered 8.1.7c2 update for the TiVo HD seems to have opened a door for adding eSATA drives. Our old friend Spike2k5 has discovered that if you image a drive using MFSTools or WinMFS, you can then attach it to the eSATA port of the TiVo HD and it will be recognized. He has detailed his findings in a post at TiVoCommunity.com.

This is more complex than the method for the Series3, where you just plug-in the drive and the TiVo does the rest, but it is a nice find. If you read into it, it may reveal some of TiVo’s plans for eSATA. The Series3 seems to work with any eSATA drive you connect – with the caveat of the drive and enclosure needing to support the performance and reliability required. While the TiVo HD doesn’t recognize non-prepared drives. It could be that the TiVo HD will only work with some ‘TiVo-branded’ drives that have yet to be announced, similar to how it only works with the TiVo-branded WiFi adapter. or that could be reading too much into this, and it may just be that the TiVo HD doesn’t have the full eSATA software to work like the S3 does, and 8.1.7c2 just has unfinished software with only partial, basic eSATA support. So it recognizes an attached drive, and will use it if it has been previously ‘married’ to the internal drive, but that’s all.

I was tipped off to this by ZatzNotFunny.

In other eSATA news, WeaKnees Blog is reporting that more Scientific Atlanta DVRs are now supporting eSATA drives. They’re reporting that these models all support eSATA as long as they’re running the SARA software: 8300HD, 8300MR, 8300 HD-MR, SA8300, 8300C, SA8300C, 8240, 8240HD, and SA8240. SARA is the Scientific Atlanta Resident Application, the ‘default’ software. Some cable MSOs use other software, such as Pioneer’s PASSPORT, and if you have one of these your eSATA port is probably inactive.

Kircos added that Intel’s agreement with CableLabs on OpenCable concerns only the chip family for CE devices it plans to introduce in 2008, “not a PC play per se, nor for our Core or Pentium processors at this point.”

I actually think this is more an issue of Intel being a large corporation with their fingers in several pies than a real reversal. Intel would still like to see a two-way standard that allows CE devices to access two-way cable services (SDV, VOD, etc) without the hefty overhead of supporting OCAP. However, at the same time, there is a market for chips that are going into the new generation of cable set top box and other devices which *will* support OCAP, and Intel wasn’t willing to cede the market to the competition over OCAP.

In another development, Microsoft and CableLabs have extended their partnership with a formal collaborative effort to develop ways for two-way cable services to function on PCs. It isn’t clear if this means embedding OCAP in Windows or developing an alternative system. I’d be a bit shocked if it is the former. OCAP is Java-based – and MS has a deep hatred for Java. The primary reason MS backs HD DVD over Blu-ray is that HD DVD uses iHD (developed my Microsoft and Toshiba) for interactive features while Blu-ray uses BD-Java – which is itself derived from the same MHP/GEM standards that OCAP was derived from, and hence related in a way. I just don’t see Microsoft grinning and paying for a Java license to embed Java in every copy of Windows MCE, not after the past acrimony over their JVM, etc. But I suppose stranger things have happened.

OCAP is running far behind schedule. It was originally anticipated to be widely deployed by the end of 2006, now the cable industry is claiming it will be widely deployed by the end of 2008. Delays in getting the OCAP infrastructure in place had cascaded to a number of delays, including delays in getting TiVo’s new OCAP-based software out for Comcast and Cox.

The majority of the CE industry has shunned OpenCable mainly due to the OCAP requirement. Adding support for OCAP increases the costs and complexity of their products and, at the same time, impacts their software design as features utilizing OCAP will run cable software and not the CE vendor’s own UI. This doesn’t sit well with the industry.

There have been some notable exceptions. Panasonic, LG, and Samsung have all licensed OCAP and are producing OCAP-compliant devices. It isn’t too surprising, as these companies product cable products for other countries. Until now, the US market was dominated by Motorola and Scientific Atlanta, and it was nearly impossible for a 3rd party to break in. Cable companies used Motorola head-end systems with Motorola STBs, or SA with SA. Now with CableCARD and OCAP, it is easier for 3rd parties to enter the market. Panasonic and Samsung are already making cable boxes for US Cable MSOs, utilizing CableCARD. Samsung is testing OCAP televisions with Time Warner.

If you’re making a cable STB, then OCAP isn’t a big issue. That’s the way the industry is going and Motorola and SA are supporting OCAP on their products, so competitors will do the same. OCAP is based on the MHP/GEM standards used in STBs around the world, so supporting OCAP isn’t a big leap for vendors already making STBs in other countries.

If you’re making high-end TVs it isn’t so bad either. The cost can be absorbed, and since the TV didn’t really have much in the way of interactivity and advanced features, there isn’t a conflict between OCAP and the CE vendors own software and UI. So LG and Samsung testing the waters for OCAP TVs isn’t a big surprise.

However, if you produce more advanced products, like TiVo or Digeo, then yielding control to OCAP is a big deal. And cost is an issue for most CE products, with the cost of supporting OCAP being non-negligible – both in the added hardware and in the required licenses. Which is why CE vendors really want a simple, basic way to handle two-way features without all of the baggage of OCAP. OCAP is pretty hefty, and a lot more than is needed to handle simple tasks like SDV or ordering VOD.

There could possibly be some progress on this front this week, as the FCC is holding an open meeting in Portland, ME to discuss the issue, amongst other agenda items.

In the same entry there is also a link to this blog, wherein a Canadian (Joe Clark) is doing an ongoing review of his experience with an SA8000 from Rogers Cable – since they can’t get TiVo (officially) in Canada.