This acquisition has spurred talk in some circles about TiVo’s fate. Why? Well, a number of people think TiVo is a candidate for a buyout. TiVo still has a poison pill to prevent a hostile takeover, but that is expiring in November. And even with the pill in place the BoD can accept a buyout offer at any time without triggering the pill. The pill just helps prevent hostile bids.

There has been speculation that Google could be a suitor. TiVo has a history with hardware, a successful DVR platform, and deals with MSOs. All things Google could use to beef up Google TV – but now all things they have in Motorola, only moreso.

On the other hand, TiVo is involved with patent lawsuits with Verizon (who uses Motorola HW) and AT&T (who also uses Motorola HW), having recently finally settled with Dish Network for $500 million. If Google feels that they may have a liability in these suits, it is possible that they would seek to have them settled as part of the acquisition. Possibly even buying TiVo in order to do so, along with acquiring their patents which could be useful for Google TV and Motorola’s own DVRs. Though I think that’d be a drastic step to take, they could likely settle with TiVo for less than the cost of a buyout. They’d really have to see value in owning the whole package to go that far.

Personally, while my dream marriage would be Google buying TiVo and integrating it into Google TV, I think that is much less likely to happen now that Google has MMI – on top of their recent SageTV acquisition. They’ll have everything they need to roll their own super STB in house once the Motorola deal closes.

On the other hand, if I’m Cisco, Motorola’s largest competitor in the STB market, I might be looking to beef up my product offering. Cisco and TiVo already work together – Cisco is providing the hardware for Virgin Media in the UK and ONO in Spain. So they have a solid track record. Cisco’s STB software has perhaps a worse reputation than Motorola’s, and offering a TiVo-based solution could be a real shot in the arm for them. Especially if Google does push Google TV onto Motorola DVRs.

Cisco also has a retail presence through Linksys, and increasingly under their own brand. They’re familiar with STB hardware, DVRs, retail, and TiVo’s software. They could conceivably add the TiVo Premiere, Premiere XL, Premiere Elite, and Preview to their STB lineup as is for both retail and MSOs. Motorola did something similar when they offered a couple of Moxi-based DVRs and the MoxiMate to MSOs. Those units were unlike any others in their lineup. That would be a rapid way for Cisco to offer a TiVo-based solution, and then they could incorporate the interface into their other STBs going forward.

Of course, that’s all pure speculation. Cisco seems to have little to lose in buying TiVo though. There’s nothing to upset the existing MSO deals in the US, or in most other countries. Most of the foreign TiVo deals are using TiVo developed or Cisco HW already. It could cause some friction with the DirecTV deal as that is using Technicolor HW, same for the Scandinavian deal with Canal Digital, but that could be addressed in contracts. And even if it killed the deals, I think Cisco could live with it. The DirecTV deal is approaching two years past due now and there’s reason to be skeptical about it ever coming to fruition at this point anyway.

I don’t think it would cause an issue for deals like the Best Buy Insignia TVs as there is no direct competition with any Cisco products. They’re complimentary, not competitive.

On the other hand it would give Cisco’s STB product line a boost when trying to land deals with MSOs against Motorola, especially if the latter gets Google TV.

In light of the Google-Motorola deal, as pure speculation, I think I’d consider Cisco the leading candidate to acquire TiVo at this point. I don’t necessarily think it will happen, just that if anyone did I’d put them in the lead.

As for other suitors that have been speculated on.

Apple – No way. They have a strong ‘Not Invented Here’ culture. TiVo is Linux based, Apple uses BSD, it’d be a major rewrite to bring TiVo over to iOS to merge it with Apple TV or the like. And Apple is all about providing content silos via iTunes, I’m not sure a DVR fits their plans.

Microsoft – Doubtful. MS is mildly allergic to Linux. They already have Media Center and successful IPTV STB software – AT&T runs on it. They also have the Xbox 360 for OTT content. Media center extenders are neglected, but still out there too. If MS wanted to get into the DVR business I think they’d roll their own based on their existing STB software before buying TiVo.

Rovi – Maybe. Rovi, formerly known as Macrovision Solutions Corporation, has several product lines, including software for set top boxes. If they had an inclination to get into DVRs and get onto more MSO boxes, they might do so via TiVo.

Dish Network or EchoStar – Doubtful. There was speculation that they may buy TiVo as a way to settle their long-running lawsuit. But now that they’ve settled the case I don’t see Dish or EchoStar having a good reason to buy TiVo. EchoStar already has one of the better DVR platforms out there, along with Slingbox, so they have little to gain in a buyout.

DirecTV – Doubtful. With the new DirecTiVo sliding further and further to the right, DirecTV hardly seems excited about TiVo. They already have a deal in place that covers TiVo’s patents, and they seem to be happy evolving their own DVRs. And they already acquired ReplayTV’s IP a few years back, so they have DVR patents of their own too.

I’ve seen other speculation – that NDS might buy them to kill the competition off or that Comcast (or another MSO) will buy them to monopolize the TiVo interface on their network, etc. But all of those seem even less likely to me.

Right now, I think Cisco would gain the most from acquiring TiVo.

Of course, then again, Cisco has been pulling back from consumer products, such as in shutting down Flip. So I might be completely off base.

But, like I said, this is all just speculation. It is fun to talk about, but I’m not going to put down money on any of these deals happening.

So, what do you think? What does the Google-Motorola deal mean for TiVo, if anything? Or who do you think might be a suitor for TiVo? Or do you think that’s backwards and TiVo is going to use part of their $500 million award from EchoStar/Dish to buy someone else? Or just grow organically?

Leave a comment with your thoughts!

A new raft of FCC regulations, originally published October 14, 2010, go into effect August 1st, 2011. One of those new requirements is that MSOs provide their cable subscribers with tuning adapters that support a minimum of four content streams:

To address the problems with tuning adapters identified by commenters, the satisfactory access standard will require cable operators to ensure that retail devices are able to tune at least as many switched digital channels as that operator’s most sophisticated operator-supplied set-top box or four simultaneous channels, whichever is greater.

Multi-stream CableCARDs (M-Cards) support up to six content streams, but this doesn’t help users of the Ceton InfiniTV 4 Digital Cable Quad-tuner Card or the Moxi 3-Tuner DVR, and it wouldn’t be good news for the pending TiVo Premiere Elite 4-tuner DVR, for users with Switched Digital Video and tuning adapters that limit them to two streams.

You didn’t know? Even though M-Cards support six streams, tuning adapters first shipped with support for only two. A while back Motorola updated their tuning adapter firmware to support six streams, but Cisco has been dragging their feet. But it seems, with just two weeks left before the deadline, their finally rolling out new firmware for their STA1520.

There are more goodies from the FCC:

• If the MSO allows consumers to self-install anything, such as cable modem or cable box, then they must also allow CableCARD self-installs on 8/1/2011. No more truck rolls! (If they don’t allow any self-installs, they still must begin allowing CableCARD self-installs on 11/1/2011.)
• MSO’s must provide M-Cards starting 8/1/2011 – they cannot provide S-Cards unless specifically requested.
• If the cable company is doing the CableCARD install the installer must show up with at least the number of cards in the order, and they must be working cards.
• The same fee must be charged for a CableCARD whether it is used in a consumer provided host (such as a TiVo) or an MSO provided STB, starting 8/1/2011.

There is more in the FCC document.

Hopefully the new rules will lead to improvements for consumers, and lower costs – no more need to pay for an installer to stick a card in your TiVo and call in the numbers.

Cisco TA Firmware news spotted via EngadgetHD.

The Time Warner DVR box model was free, and the service cost $7.95/month. Also I was excited at the possibility of finally getting high definition content on my Sony HDTV. I asked some friends who used it and they seemed happy with it.

But the reality of the situation was not so rosy:

I can sum up my experiences with the Time Warner DVR in one word: Argh!

Ed enumerates the myriad of issues he experienced with the cable DVR in his article at ZDNet. From the terrible button-farm remote with unintuitive controls, to the lack of a priority list for the DVR’s version of Season Passes, to odd quirks during normal use (like the screen blacking when you pause playback and having trouble resuming playback), and more. And it sounds like his family agreed:

After two weeks of this I decided enough was enough. The family all agreed. We wanted TiVo!

Ed considered paying the $150 repair fee, which would really see him upgraded to a Series2DT with his lifetime transferred. But he’d had a taste of HD and native digital cable support, so he instead opted for the TiVo HD. After ordering his new TiVo HD, but before it shipped, TiVo announced the TiVo HD XL.

Knowing a good thing when he sees it, Ed canceled the TiVo HD and ordered a TiVo HD XL.

I think TiVo should send a nice thank you gift to Time Warner and Cisco/Scientific Atlanta for providing such a crappy DVR. The bad experience helped turn a potential lost customer with a dead TiVo into a high-end customer with the latest and greatest TiVo. Cisco’s bad DVR was good for TiVo.

As recently revealed, the new 9.4 TiVo update includes Tuning Adapter support, so TiVo users will be ready for the TAs as soon as the cable MSOs make them available. As Bright House, Cox, Time Warner, and others all implementing SDV, the TAs will be increasingly important. Pricing for customers is not yet known, except for Cox which announced plans to provide the TAs to their customers free of charge.

They’re actually have a sale on a number of Western Digital external drives, if you’re also looking for more capacity on your PC:
Western Digital 750GB My Book Essential Edition USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $139.99
Western Digital Elements 500GB USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $89.99
Western Digital 500GB My Book Essential USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $96.99
Western Digital 320GB My Passport Elite USB 2.0 Portable Hard Drive – Bronze $148.99
Western Digital 1TB My Book Essential USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $197.99
Western Digital 500GB My DVR Expander eSATA External Hard Drive $149.99
Western Digital 320GB My Book Essential II USB 2.0 External Hard Drive $79.99
Western Digital My Book Home Edition 1TB – Triple Interface (USB 2.0, eSATA & FireWire 400) External Hard Drive $237.99

Still, progress is being made. Be patient a little while longer all you folks with SDV issues.

Like Motorola’s MTR700, Cisco’s STA1520 will be demo’d at the upcoming Cable Show, and it will be part of the Wave 60 certification process with CableLabs, so it too could be available by early July.

Via Light Reading’s Cable Digital News.

Picked up via Network World.

Second, the Scientific Atlanta deal helped Cisco find an ally in TiVo, the digital video recording company. “The combination of Scientific Atlanta technology and market girth and the user-friendly TiVo graphical user interface provides software and usability expertise,” Sizemore said.

And:

According to Sizemore, the Scientific Atlanta buy can vault Cisco into the interactive advertising market by enabling IP on set-top boxes. That method can give Cisco the ability to leverage its enterprise expertise to create a two-way marketing and sales engine directly into the living room, using a familiar and friendly interface from TiVo.

This is interesting because my impression is that TiVo and Cisco/Scientific Atlanta aren’t really partnered, but rather Comcast is funding development of the TiVo OCAP software to run on the SciAtl cable boxes. I’m sure that, as part of that effort, TiVo is working with SciAtl engineers on platform specifics, but this article makes it sound like a much closer relationship. It makes me wonder if the author, or at least the person he’s quoting, is reading too much into things, or if he knows more than has been public.