So far I’ve really only posted what I learned from TiVo, since I know that’s the leading interest for my readers, but they’re hardly the only vendor I talked to. I had some great conversations with vendors such as Pace, Arris, Humax, SiliconDust, Comcast, and others. I just need to recover from the show and find some time to do some additional research and compose some more posts. For some hints about what I’ll be covering you can check out the photos I took. Bear with me, I also need to pick up my day job in the morning.

If you want a glimpse of what the show floor was like The Cable Show posted a short video tour. Walking the floor is sped up, which makes me want to mash up the video with Yakety Sax. (Some of you get it, I’m sure.) I found that if you play it back at .25x it is more like a fast walk and you can catch more detail.

Adjusting for Comcast’s new numbers the top five MSOs, Cablevision, Charter Communications, Comcast Corporation, Cox Communications, and Time Warner Cable, collectively deployed 557,296 CableCARDs. Extending that to the top ten MSOs gives a small bump to 595,296, which shows how many customers are concentrated into the largest MSOs. By way of comparison, these same ten MSOs have installed more thsn 32,000,000 CableCARDs in MSO provided STBs. And that is the best evidence of just how badly CableCARD has flopped in the retail market.

At this point TiVo is effectively the only retail CableCARD vendor left! There are a handful of PC CableCARD tuner products, but the total sales are negligible. CableCARD enabled TVs are all but gone from the market. And now that Moxi is gone I think TiVo is the last retail CableCARD DVR. Personally I think this demonstrates why we need AllVid to create a truly competitive open market.

Cablevision reports 27,472 CableCARD subscribers, an increase of 8% over the previous report. But before you get too excited, the new numbers include subscribers from Optimum West, which was integrated into Cablevision during the quarter. These 27,472 subscribers account for 39,462 CableCARDs, so there are a number of multi-card households. During the reporting period they actually had 5,288 new CableCARD installs, 57% of which were self-installs. The rest opted for professional installs, which cost an average of $34.95. The good news is they average 1.0 truck rolls per install, so they get it right the first time. And they charge $2/month per card.

Charter reported a total of 31,884 CableCARDs in service. And they still average 1.5 truck rolls per professional installation, the worst of the lot. I can believe it, I’m a Charter customer. The techs I’ve worked with have all been great, but many have expressed a desire for more training on CableCARD and TiVo. I’ve heard from a number of them that they’re really not being trained, and it seems like there are a couple of ‘experts’ in the area that they always end up calling. (I’ve had to have Charter out a couple of times for CableCARD and/or Tuning Adapter issues. Invariably it ends up being a back end problem, but the phone techs give up and insist on sending truck. Then the tech ends up calling around until he finds the right person to fix the issue.) Charter also charges $2/month per card, and an average of $35.00 for professional installs.

Comcast, from their corrected 2/23/12 numbers, has 370,407 CableCARDs in customer homes. Since the last report they installed 25,789 new cards, with only 29% being self-installs. It seems like Comcast customers opt for professional installs 71% of the time, which I find surprising, though it might be explained by the pricing. While they charge an average of $26.00 if it is a separate trip, it drops to $7.15 if it is part of a larger installation. And it takes an average of 1.04 truck rolls, so odds are good they’ll get it right the first time. Comcast’s first card is generally free, and additional cards in the same device average $1.50. (It isn’t in the report, but I believe additional cards in other devices are normally $2/month.)

Cox has 52,479 CableCARDs in service, at an average cost of $1.99/month. Customers who opt for a professional install pay an average of $24.00, though it takes an average of 1.1 visits. So your more likely to get to have the chance to get to know your installer better than with Cablevision or Comcast.

TWC has 75,542 CableCARDs in use with 54,575 subscribers, so again we know there are a number of multi-card households. TWC’s cards are the most expensive, at an average of $2.37 (I’ve heard that they charge quite a bit in some areas, which would explain the elevated average). Surprisingly their install numbers are even most skewed than Comcast’s, with 83% electing professional installs, which cost an average of $28.16. Why do so many people opt for professional installation? I’d love to know the motivation there.

All in all, not much has changed since the last report. I wish the different MSOs would normalize their reporting – some report self-install vs. professional installs. Some report costs with more granularity. Subscribers vs. number of cards. It’d be nice if they’d all report the same things in the same way. I can dream.

The Cable Show 2012 is being held in Boston, May 21-23. Since that’s basically local to me, I don’t have much of an excuse for not going this year. The Cable Show is the conference held by the National Cable & Telecommunications Association to showcase all of the latest and greatest technology and products in the cable industry.

The current list of exhibitors includes all of the expected hardware players, including TiVo. Given the focus of the show I expect they’ll be pitching their MSO solutions, and I’m very interested in what they have planned for that market to build upon their success to date. Of course it’ll also be very interesting to see what The Usual Suspects (Cisco, Motorola, Pace, Samsung, et al.) have up their sleeves. Especially if Google gets approval for their acquisition of Motorola before the show and we hear what their plans might be.

I’m looking forward to it as I haven’t attended an industry show since CES 2009, and this will be my first time attending The Cable Show. I know Gabe from Tech of the Hub, another Boston-area blogger, is also planning to attend. Maybe we can have a little Gathering of Bloggers.

That’s how much of a flop CableCARD has been at retail, less than 2% of the cards deployed are used in retail devices, like TiVo. I don’t blame the retail devices, but rather the pain involved in obtaining CableCARD (self-installs only mandated 8/8/2011) and the artificial limitations on retail CableCARD devices (no OnDemand, for example). tru2way is an even bigger flop, basically being stillborn. And this is why I don’t feel like we can rely on cable industry developed solutions, but rather we need something like a solid AllVid mandate backed by and FCC with some teeth to make sure it happens.

But I digress, let’s get back to this report and look at each of the five MSOs reporting.

Cablevision has 25,303 CableCARD subscribers with 36,692 cards deployed, an average of 1.45 per household. For this reporting period, which spans time before and after the self-install mandate, 43% or 1,395 were professional installs and 57% or 1,851 were self-installs. They charge $2/month per CableCARD. And if the customer elects for a professional installation there is a fee that averages $34.95, but the average number of truck rolls per install is just 1.0, so it seems like they get it right the first time.

Charter Communications had 31,425 CableCARDs in service as of August 31, 2011. They begin allowing self-installs on August 1, before that a professional installation was required. Interestingly Charter says their average number of truck rolls per install is 1.5, which indicates they’re customers probably have some more trouble getting it working. I’m a Charter customer and I have required multiple truck rolls in the past due to installers not having working cards on their truck, etc. Charter also charges and average of $2/month per CableCARD, and there is an average $35.00 fee for professional installs.

Comcast is the big one, with 367,064 CableCARDs in customer homes. In this reporting period they installed 38,403 CableCARDs, split almost exactly 50/50 between professional installs and self-installs. The average truck rolls per install is 1.03, so it seems like they get it right nearly every time. Comcast also has the best pricing, the first card is free and each additional card is $1.50/month. For professional installation, if it is part of a larger install it is an average of just $7.15. For a trip just to install a CableCARD they charge an average of $26.

Cox Communications has 50,791 CableCARDs in the field. Each card costs $1.99/month. For professional installations they charge an average of $24 and it takes an average of 1.1 truck rolls. So not as good as Cablevision and Comcast, but certainly a lot better than Charter.

Time Warner Cable has 74,047 CableCARDs in place with 53,503 customers. Until 8/8/2011 and the FCC mandate they required a professional installation, since they they’ve allowed self-installs. Which helps explain the 87%/13% split for the reporting period. The good news is they seem to get it right with an average of 1.03 truck rolls for professional installs, which cost an average of $26.64. CableCARDs run an average of $2.50/month.

So it seems like Charter is having the most trouble getting CableCARD working right the first time, and Cox is struggling a little, but Cablevision, Comcast, and Time Warner Cable are doing fairly well in that department.

There’s more interesting information in the full report, if you care to read it.

It is probably obvious where my sympathies lay, I think we need AllVid. While the cable industry, through the NCTA, argues that a mish-mash of MVPD-unique apps to bring content to phones and tablets is all we need, that allowing each MVPD to slap their interface across any device is innovative, and that the industry should decide how open it needs to be, I do not agree. I feel that all of these are just more of the same. Same shit, different device. Cable system user interfaces almost universally suck, I don’t want that UI on my CE devices. That kind of solution was a major factor in the failure of tru2way. Consumer electronics vendors – like TiVo, Sony, Samsung, etc. – should be able to create one UI that works with all MVPDs, not have to make deals with them one at a time and create unique apps to work with each one.

For just one example look at TiVo’s efforts to support cable OnDemand on their DVRs. They have to invest a lot of time and effort in just lobbying each MSO to make a deal. And once they’ve made the deal they have to implement a variant on their solution to deal with the different MSO requirements, because there is no standard. Consumers get screwed in the end because we get a pot luck of solutions. If you want OnDemand from RCN, Suddenlink, or (soon) Charter, then you need to get your box from them. Oh, but then you have to give up Netflix, and possibly other OTT content. You’ll be able to use your retail box with Comcast or Cox. But you’re SOL with Cablevision, Time Warner Cable, Brighthouse, FiOS, etc. Of course, you can’t even use a modern TiVo with DirecTV, Dish Network, or AT&T U-Verse, because they’re closed, proprietary networks.

And that’s what AllVid is about – providing standard interfaces and opening up networks to real competition and innovation in CE devices. The NCTA claims that if the original AllVid proposal were in effect we wouldn’t have the iPad apps, etc., we do today. I think that’s bullshit. My understanding of the original proposal is that it wouldn’t forbid development of these apps alongside providing an open, IP-based interface for 3rd parties. It wouldn’t tell cable companies they had to stop innovating, just that they would also need to provide the required standard interfaces to their content streams.

The FCC filing makes their feelings pretty clear:

The featured list of “innovative approaches” that begins on the first page of the NCTA letter includes not a single thing that would make MVPD programming or services available on competitive devices. Rather, “progress” is cited in these areas:

• Internet delivery of some “cable video”
• Extensions to a few specified portable devices
• IP-based interfaces that deliver only the MSOs’ own guides to their own leased settop boxes
• Limited availability of standards-based home networking
• Reliance on “cloud” delivery

Citing these advances as a “march of progress,” however, merely continues NCTA’s tactic over the last 15 years of pointing to incremental achievements to sidestep or forestall proposals from the Commission and the consumer electronics, information technology, retailer, and public interest sectors that would achieve the goals of Section 629 in full. The reality is that greater progress in device interoperability and home networking has been achieved in other sectors, such as Internet-based video delivery, where competition exists.

We need the equivalent to Carterfone for MVPDs. The Carterfone decision forced telcos to open up their networks to 3rd party devices. No longer did consumers have to get their telephones from the telco. It opened the market up to an endless variety of competing phone designs, to answering machines, fax machines, and, probably most important of all, to modems. Without the open access provided by Carterfone, who knows how much innovation would’ve been retarded. Before the decision the telcos certainly weren’t moving very quickly to introduce new devices. They were happy with the status quo.

We’re in a similar situation today with MVPDs. CableCARD is such a pain to deal with, and so limited, that CE vendors just avoid the market. So we have a dearth of options to choose from. HDTV makers have actually pulled back from including CableCARD tuners. TiVo is really the only notable CableCARD product available to consumers. Moxi has basically dropped out of the market. And there are a handful of CableCARD tuner products for PCs, but they’re a fairly small niche.

Remember the days before digital cable, when analog cable was basically wide open? There were scores of ‘cable ready’ devices. Nearly every TV & VCR had a cable tuner. There were many DVR & DVR recorder products available. But as cable moved to digital the MSOs used the opportunity to lock out 3rd parties by encrypting the signal. That’s what CableCARD was supposed to solve, but the final solution is so flawed as to make it nearly non viable. And the MSOs have done a lot to discourage use, while the FCC has only addressed the issues slowly and piecemeal – like the upcoming self-install mandate. And, of course, after we got CableCARD SDV came along, adding more pain with tuning adapters. And, of course, OnDemand and Pay Per View content isn’t supported.

I want to go back to those analog cable days, at least in terms of consumer choice. When you could walk into a store and select from a wall of VCRs, DVRs, or DVD Recorders. When you could buy most any TV, plug it into your cable, and access all of the content you were paying for. Today, even if you’re willing to deal with CableCARD, the choices just aren’t there because the pain is enough to keep CE vendors from entering the market. Those that tried when CableCARD was new got burned. And the CE industry has been burned multiple times by cable, remember the June 2008 pledge to have tru2way fully deployed by July 2009 (July 2010 for Charter)? Yeah, how’d that go? This is why the CE industry is wary of just leaving things up to the cable industry. When they do, they get screwed – along with consumers.

CableCARD technically works, but it is a complete failure when it comes to the original goals. The cable industry has managed to make CableCARD so painful that it isn’t worth dealing with. But CableCARD was always meant as an interim solution on the way to something better – and that something better is AllVid. It’d restore the balance that existed before the digital lock out. CE vendors could product products that only needed to support one standardize interface to handle cable, satellite, IPTV, etc. Linear content, SDV, OnDemand, and PPV would all be supported. CE vendors would be free to create their own UI to differentiate their products, like a TiVo Search that provides unified results from linear content, VOD, PPV, and OTT content (Netflix, YouTube, etc.)

The cable industry doesn’t like this because they want to control every aspect of the consumer relationship. They don’t want you to have a choice. They want you to use a Comcast STB at home with a Comcast UI, and a Comcast app on your phone or tablet. They want to control everything end to end, so it isn’t as easy to turn to Netflix, Amazon, etc., for content. They want to lock the consumer in and put up barriers to choice, but making it too much trouble, if not impossible, for CE vendors to create innovative products that blur the lines.

The NCTA points to TiVo’s work with VOD as a reason we don’t need AllVid – I say it is exactly why we do need it. If we had AllVid TiVo could’ve implemented and deployed VOD by now – for all MSOs, not to mention satellite support. And so could every other CE vendor. Right now TiVo has negotiated deals with five cable MSOs, but if Sony wants to implement VOD support they’ll have to negotiate their own individual deals. Samsung would have to do the same. And LG. Etc. It is slow, cumbersome, and expensive.

If you’ve ever wondered why you don’t have VOD or PPV on your TiVo, or why you can’t use TiVo with satellite, or if you’ve ever lamented the quality of the software on your provider’s STB and wished for choice, or were frustrated by online access to your provider’s content being iPad online and not on Android, or your PC or Mac, or if you just want to be able to have choice as a consumer, then you should be in favor of AllVid.

I’m glad to see these groups out there keeping the pressure on the FCC through their filings. I know many of them have their own interests, but I believe those interests better align with consumer interests than the cable industry’s do. Carterfone didn’t kill the telcos, in fact it was one of the best things that ever happened to them as the innovations that followed increased usage of the PSTN, which meant increased revenues. Likewise, AllVid won’t kill the MVPDs. I think it would create a surge in demand for their services as people would have many new ways to access the content and unlock the value therein, currently trapped in a narrow scope of applications.

The good news is that there have been a handful of filings made, all in support of TiVo. Two individual users, Michael D. Scott and Samuel Biller, filed comments. (There is a comment from a Tom Spindler, but it looks like an error as it is unrelated to TiVo’s request.) Additionally, likely carrying more weight, are filings from Transparent Video Systems, Nagravision, the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA), and the National Cable & Telecommunications Association (NCTA). I’d expect the last two to carry the most weight.

I’ve filed a comment as well, but it hasn’t been approved and posted to the site yet. This is what I said:

Comments of MegaZone

First off, lest there be any confusion, my full legal name is indeed MegaZone. Yes, I have an unusual mononym, but it is what it is.

The purpose of this comment is to support TiVo’s application for a waiver of Sections 15.118(b), 15.123(b)(1) and 15.123(c) with respect to its pending TiVo Premiere Elite product. I’m a tech blogger (GizmoLovers.com) and a long time follower of the industry and the FCC’s rule makings. I’m familiar with analog and digital broadcast technologies, Switched Digital Video (SDV), Tuning Adapters, CableCARD, Uni-directional Digital Cable Products (UDCPs), OCAP/tru2way, IPTV, and many other related technologies.

I’ve been a TiVo user since 2002, and my main DVR is currently a TiVo Series3 HD model. I’ve had personal experience with everything from the original TiVo Series1 to the current TiVo Premiere Series4. My S3 unit receives content from Charter Communications in Worcester, MA, utilizing CableCARD and a Tuning Adapter, as SDV is used extensively in my area.

As a consumer I would be very interested in upgrading to the TiVo Premiere Elite four-tuner DVR. And while Charter still has a handful of analog-only channels in my service area (roughly 20), the bulk of their offering is available via digital service and they continue to transition channels. I expect the remaining analog channels will be available digitally before long. In the meantime, I’d be more than willing to exchange access to those few channels for use of an advanced, four-tuner digital DVR.

As a tech blogger and industry watcher, I fully support TiVo’s efforts to bring such a product to market. While the rules requiring analog support made sense in 2003, they do not in today’s market. It would be unfair to companies like TiVo to require analog support in retail Digital Cable Ready products when the MVPDs, their primary competition, are able to provide customers with digital-only set top boxes. This create and uneven playing field, as the MSOs are able to benefit from the cost savings and reduction in complexity provided by dispensing with the analog tuners, real-time encoding hardware, associated RAM, etc. Digital only products benefit from a reduced parts count, lower power consumption, and a physically smaller footprint, making them even more appealing to consumers.

I look to the FCC to level the playing field by providing a waiver to TiVo, to allow them to bring this innovative product to market. Analog transmissions are clearly on their way out, and consumer electronics vendors, such as TiVo, need to look to the future, not be mired in the past. Until we have AllVid as the rule of the land, this waiver is the next step forward.

Respectfully submitted,

MegaZone

This would allow consumer electronics vendors, such as Sony or TiVo, to build devices that would be able to plug into any programming source – cable, satellite, or fiber – and to access the full range of content. Not just linear channels, but also SDV, PayPerView, and OnDemand content. You may be aware that TiVo has deals in place with a handful of cable MSOs to access OnDemand content. RCN & Suddenlink already provide TiVo hardware to their customers which can access OnDemand, and Charter will begin doing so this year. And Cox & Comcast have agreements with TiVo to allow access to OnDemand via retail TiVo units in the coming months.

But this is piecemeal. TiVo has to pursue individual deals with each MSO, and then customize their software to work that that MSO’s OnDemand head end. There isn’t a standardized interface, and TiVo remains locked out of other MSOs. Not to mention they’re still locked out of satellite and IPTV fiber services like U-Verse because CableCARD is only mandated for cable MSOs. (FiOS uses cable standards for linear content, but IPTV for OnDemand.) And that’s just TiVo, if Sony wanted to provide the same kind of access on their products they’d have to make the same kind of individual deals with the MSOs. And then Samsung. Etc. It just isn’t the same as having open, defined standards that every vendor can implement.

AllVid is the vision for that new standard, and it would supplant CableCARD, hopefully eliminating the many shortcomings that have restricted its popularity with consumers. (Like the lack of access to OnDemand content.)

Of course, the industry, primarily in the form of the NCTA, is resisting any effort to mandate the AllVid vision. They want to be left alone, claiming that industry innovation makes AllVid unnecessary. They point to things like the TiVo-MSO deals, and a growing number of new services like Comcast’s Xfinity mobile apps. But that’s apples & oranges, saying you can stream content on your iPad isn’t the same as being able to access it on your TV with a set top box you purchased because it has the features you want. And the AllVid Alliance argues just that, in a new filing with the FCC. Just a sample:

Section 629 of the Communications Act is not satisfied by consumers being able to download an MVPD’s app on a particular brand of television set or “cable systems…developing new ways to use the Internet.” While MVPDs point to the latest
“shiny thing over there,” they ignore the Section 629 mandate of the Communications Act. The Commission must not lose sight of the fact that Congress directed the Commission to foster a competitive retail market for navigation devices used by consumers to access the full range of services offered by MVPDs, and to access that programming and those services through manufacturers, retailers and other vendors not affiliated with any MVPD

And:

An AllVid gateway would empower a consumer to use any consumer electronics (“CE”) product to receive any programming offered by an MVPD on a subscriber basis, and would allow any CE product to work securely with respect to multichannel content. Consumers would no longer need to be concerned about how to port content to or store content on TV, computer, game, tablet, or mobile platforms, and whether programs would be lost if the consumer switches to a different MVPD or even to a different device. Consumers would have the option of choosing multichannel programming interactively without worrying about a potential cap on their use of Internet bandwidth. Multiple CE manufacturers–not just those that have negotiated deals with MVPDs–would be able to respond to consumers with innovations that directly address their needs and desires.

They go on to cite the historic Carterfone decision of 1968, which allowed consumers to stop renting their phones from AT&T and to connect non-AT&T telephones, and other telephony devices, to the phone system. Significantly ‘other telephony devices’ includes computer modems. Without Carterfone the early growth of online services may have been stifled. At least acoustic couplers would’ve had a longer run I suppose. I was born in 1970, and I’m just old enough to remember a lot of remaining ‘AT&T’ industrial looking phones and the first wave of all the new, then-radical designs which broke the mold from the standard, archetypal ‘telephone’. The AllVid Alliance is looking to open up television services in the same way.

Ironically, the cable industry themselves have shown that the AllVid vision isn’t so hard to fulfill, despite their claims that it would bring hardship and exorbitant costs. A recent demonstration at a CableLabs interop event showed cable STBs running tru2way middleware were able to stream content over an IP interface to DLNA enabled media devices, using DTCP-IP content protection. This is based on a home networking spec from CableLabs themselves, and could serve as the core for an AllVid implementation. So why the objections to the FCC mandating some baseline standard to ensure a level playing field to start?

Personally, I hope the FCC does mandate AllVid, and that it has some teeth. I think they were too soft with CableCARD, especially in allowing tru2way, which was so unloved it seems everyone, cable and CE industry alike, are mostly trying to forget about it.

Via Multichannel News.

That is, of course, if the numbers are true – and they may not be. See the table below and especially the first footnote¹. Comcast’s numbers for September are estimated to be 10-15% lower than actual due to an internal error. We could be looking at an increase of more than 34,000 users instead of only 2,000!

While 34,000 would certainly be better than 2,000, it still isn’t really setting the world on fire. Maybe the M-Card is a ray of hope in those numbers – if customers who previously used two S-Cards are trading them in for a single M-Card on devices like the TiVo HD, it would result in a lower cumulative number. Still, I don’t expect that’s a huge number either.

This is not to say that the total number of CableCARDs in use is that small, not at all. Since the FCC’s ‘integration ban’ went into effect on July 1, 2007, forcing cable MSOs to begin using CableCARDs in their own STBs, those same ten MSOs have deployed over 7,800,000 CableCARDs in their STBs. So in less than fifteen months they’ve deployed more than twenty times the number of CableCARDs as have been issued for 3rd party UDCPs in the four years they’ve been available.

The integration ban was supposed to force cable MSOs to ‘eat their own dog food’ and thereby improve support for CableCARDs. The idea was that this would help foster the overall CableCARD market. Better support from MSOs would lead to more products, which would mean more 3rd party UDCPs in the field. For the most part, this hasn’t happened.

Why not? Well, I think I can sum it up in one brand name: tru2way. Starting late last year, and getting an official launch at CES in January, OCAP became tru2way and marked a push to get consumer electronics companies on board. Then starting with Samsung in May, followed by a larger push by Sony later that month, CE vendors started jumping on the tru2way bandwagon.

What does this have to do with slow CableCARD adoption? Well, these same CE vendors have held off on releasing UDCPs while they work on tru2way-enabled devices. Why invest in developing and marketing a unidirectional product when you’re going to obsolete it with a two-way product in a year? The first tru2way products are starting to trickle out, and there will probably be a bunch of them on display at CES in January. So I think the push for tru2way was a major contributor to lax CableCARD pick up. Vendors just haven’t been releasing CableCARD-enabled products so there aren’t many options for consumers, which naturally means not many cards are being deployed. Really the only major CableCARD product out there right now is TiVo. CableCARD TVs are thin on the ground. CableCARD-enabled Media Center PCs have had anemic sales. And Digeo outright canceled their Moxi CableCARD HD DVR.

CableCARD was slow out of the gate, and by the time MSOs had the infrastructure worked out vendors were already looking toward round two with tru2way and they just decided to sit round one with UDCPs out entirely. The deployment of SDV and the need to develop a Tuning Adapter, and to support it, was very likely a factor in that as well. I don’t expect to see any real pick-up in CableCARD utilization until a sufficient number of tru2way devices are available to consumers, and then I do expect to see a real uptick.

The filing also has information from several MSOs on their CableCARD pricing and install practices. To compare June to September:

¹Comcast states that their September number may by low by 10-15% due to internal reporting errors.

The count for this reporting period of CableCARDs installed in one way retail devices in active customer homes is estimated to be 10-15% lower than the actual number due to internal Comcast reporting errors that are the result of an internal Division reorganization during the reporting period. The next quarterly report will more accurately reflect the actual count.

Since Comcast has such a large installed base this could be the reason for the seemingly small total uptick. The other four combined yield an increase of 3,429. Comcast’s apparent drop of 1,383 drags it down. But if they’re short just 10% they would actually have an increase of 20,334 users. And 15% would mean an increase of 31,192! So we’d be looking at a total increase of 23,763 to 34,621 – rather more than around 2,000. And that’s just from these five MSOs.

²Comcast allows self-installs in at least some areas – 68% used truck rolls, 32% were self-installs.

³First card is free, fee for additional cards.

⁴$10.43 if install is included with other services, $25.14 if purpose visit.

⁵0.2% of Time Warner installs are self-install, which is negligible.

⁶The average is $2.26, but they report most divisions are $1.75 – which must mean the remaining divisions are rather higher to bring the average up.

Since this is a critical issue and of interest to a lot of readers, the full press release is below.

May 19, 2008 08:00 ET

NCTA and TiVo Announce Progress on Switched Digital Adapter for TiVo DVRs

SDV solutions from TiVo, Motorola and Cisco currently undergoing CableLabs® testing

Cisco and Motorola tuning adapters on display at the 2008 Cable Show

TiVo HD DVRs with tuning adapter support on display at the CableNET and Motorola booths at the 2008 Cable Show

NEW ORLEANS, May 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ — The National Cable & Telecommunications Association (NCTA) and TiVo Inc. (NASDAQ:TIVO) , today announced that after a series of successful informal interoperability tests TiVo and several manufacturers of switched digital external tuning adapters have submitted products for formal testing at CableLabs. The tuning adapter will enable TiVo Series3™, TiVo HD DVRs, and certain other one-way digital cable ready consumer electronic devices that utilize CableCARDs™ to access digital cable channels delivered using switched digital technology.

“The ability to turn concept into reality this quickly is a testament to how closely cable operators, CableLabs, TiVo and other cable vendors have worked over the last several months to develop this first-of-its-kind marketplace solution,” said Kyle McSlarrow, NCTA President & CEO. “We are extremely grateful to TiVo for the critical role it has played throughout and are confident that customers will benefit from this solution enabling full access to switched digital channels.”

Motorola and Cisco have both developed external tuning adapters and are seeking qualification by CableLabs® before being delivered to cable operators for deployment. The tuning adapters are expected to be offered in the coming months by cable operators including Comcast, Time Warner, Cox, and Cablevision in areas where switched digital technology is being deployed. The cable operators and TiVo plan to work cooperatively to alert TiVo subscribers about the availability or need of the new external adapter and to ensure that installation of the adapter and CableCARDs will be easy and seamless for the consumer.

TiVo has modified its software for its TiVo Series3 and TiVo HD DVRs to communicate with the external Tuning Adapter. TiVo announced that the modified software has been submitted to CableLabs for verification testing. Upon verification, the software upgrade will be made available to TiVo subscribers via a regularly scheduled update.

Switched digital technology enables cable operators to transmit individual channels to customers on an as-needed basis rather than broadcasting all channels to all subscribers all the time. Switched digital technology provides more flexibility for cable operators to utilize network capacity to deliver interactive digital services, high-definition (HD) channels, broadband Internet and digital phone service. The Tuning Adapter is intended to work on any Unidirectional Digital Cable Ready Product (UDCP) that has a USB connector and necessary firmware.

“We are pleased with the focus and cooperation that CableLabs and the cable industry has exhibited from the outset and are eager to see this solution through to fruition so that customers can enjoy access to all switched digital cable channels,” said TiVo CEO & President Tom Rogers. “This undertaking is a significant step forward in our ongoing relationship with the cable industry to develop technology and provide solutions that improve the television experience of cable subscribers.”

“Cisco continues to develop innovative video technology that allows cable operators to provide a broad range of video entertainment options, including high definition and niche content,” said Michael Harney, senior vice president, Cisco, Service Provider Video Technology Group. “As part of our portfolio of advanced technology, Cisco will have on display the STA1520 Switched Tuning Adapter, which was developed in conjunction with CableLabs, our cable operator customers and TiVo.”

“Motorola is committed to accelerating the delivery of personalized media experiences,” commented John Burke, senior vice president and general manager for Motorola’s Digital Video Solutions group. “Working collaboratively, we have developed a solution that extends the reach of innovative interactive services to TiVo users and we are pleased to be able to showcase this solution at the Cable Show.”

TiVo HD DVRs attached to Motorola external adapters are currently on display in both the CableNET and Motorola booths at the 2008 Cable Show in New Orleans. The 2008 Cable Show, which runs May 18 – 20, is the largest cable and telecommunications exhibition in the United States.

About TiVo Inc.

Founded in 1997, TiVo (NASDAQ:TIVO) pioneered a brand new category of products with the development of the first commercially available digital video recorder (DVR). Sold through leading consumer electronic retailers and our website, TiVo has developed a brand which resonates boldly with consumers as providing a superior television experience. Through agreements with leading satellite and cable providers, TiVo also integrates its DVR service features into the set-top boxes of mass distributors. TiVo’s DVR functionality and ease of use, with such features as Season Pass™ recordings and WishList® searches and TiVo KidZone, have elevated its popularity among consumers and have created a whole new way for viewers to watch television. With a continued investment in its patented technologies, TiVo is revolutionizing the way consumers watch and access home entertainment. Rapidly becoming the focal point of the digital living room, TiVo’s DVR is at the center of experiencing new forms of content on the TV, such as broadband delivered video, music and photos. With innovative features, such as TiVoToGo™ transfers and online scheduling, TiVo is expanding the notion of consumers experiencing “TiVo, TV your way.®” The TiVo® service is also at the forefront of providing innovative marketing solutions for the television industry, including a unique platform for advertisers and audience research measurement.

TiVo, ‘TiVo, TV your way.’, Season Pass, WishList, TiVoToGo, Stop||Watch, and the TiVo Logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of TiVo Inc. or its subsidiaries worldwide. (C) 2008 TiVo Inc. All rights reserved. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

About NCTA:

NCTA is the principal trade association for the U.S. cable industry, representing cable operators serving more than 90 percent of the nation’s cable television households and more than 200 cable program networks. The cable industry is the nation’s largest broadband provider of high-speed Internet access after investing more than $130 billion to build a two-way interactive network with fiber optic technology. Cable companies also provide state-of-the-art digital telephone service to millions of American consumers.

Source: TiVo Inc.

CONTACT: Michael Boccio, +1-212-446-1867, mboccio@sloanepr.com, for TiVo
Inc.; or Brian Dietz of NCTA, +1-202-222-2350, bdietz@ncta.com

Web site: http://www.tivo.com/

I did miss a couple of minutes in the middle of their presentation when my cell phone dropped the call. I quickly switched to Skype for the rest of the call, lesson learned – use Skype for this kind of thing in the future. I don’t think I missed much though, when I got back in they were still covering the history and I’ve been following that since early days. I’ll listen to the recording to make sure I didn’t miss anything important. (Nope.)

One interesting thing, the NCTA repeatedly praised or mentioned TiVo when talking about CE companies that have worked with the cable industry to work out issues with CableCARDs and to develop the Tuning Resolver.

From my point of view there really wasn’t any new ground covered, but then I’ve been following OpenCable, OCAP, tru2way, etc, pretty closely for a long time. So I’d be a little surprised if they did cover something I’d missed. But it was a good overview of the situation and their arguments do make sense. They pointed out that there are only roughly 380,000 consumer electronic devices using CableCARD – that’s TVs, TiVos, PCs, etc. And the cable industry overall has over 65 million video customers in the US. So the total percentage if people using UDCPs who will have issues with SDV is pretty small. And all of those using CableCARD TiVos will be able to use the Tuning Resolver, and likely all of those with a PC using CableCARD. The big question will be those using CableCARD-enabled TVs – many of them do not have USB ports, which means no Tuning Resolver. Those units that do have USB ports will require a firmware update, so it comes down to vendor support.

Gary Merson of HD Guru asked why cable companies don’t remove the analog channels to free bandwidth for digital channels instead of using SDV. This would inconvenience those using analog cable without a STB, for example connecting it directly to an old TV. Well, I think those numbers really help explain it. While Gary made the argument that CableCARD customers are likely to be premium customers paying for higher service tiers, there are a lot fewer of them than there are subscribers using analog cable. Cutting off analog channels would inconvenience many more users than implementing SDV does. On top of that, cable MSOs would have to provide STBs to all of their customers, which would be an enormous expense. And basic cable customers don’t like STBs any more than premium customers do.

Also, under an agreement with Congress and the FCC, it is an all-or-nothing proposition. Cable MSOs are required to continue offering an analog basic tier, unless they eliminate all analog channels. Going 100% digital is an exception to the requirement. But that would be a radical change to many MSOs, and again a great cost.

There are other business reasons not to take that approach. With the digital conversion coming to broadcast TV in February 2009, providing analog service is a business opportunity for cable. Antenna users are faced with adding a converter box or other device (such as a TiVo) with a digital tuner, buying a new TV with a digital tuner, or switching to a new service – analog cable. Analog cable would allow them to connect directly to their existing TV without adding another device.

Gary also asked for some assurance that consumers who invest in new tru2way TVs and devices will not be faced with another upgrade in 3-4 years, as those who invested in UDCP CableCARD devices are facing. I think the NCTA’s response was reasonable. Cable MSOs are deploying tru2way-enabled STBs now, with Time Warner in the lead and Comcast currently in second place. Over the next couple of years this will be an investment in millions of STBs and hundreds of millions of dollars. So the cable MSOs are not going to be eager to make that investment obsolete. But they really can’t state “Tru2way will not be replaced in the next five years” or anything like that. Predicting the future in a technical field is risky business. And despite what some might think, the cable industry isn’t one large conspiracy and each MSO is free to adopt different technology and services, within the regulatory framework.

However, I guarantee that tru2way will be replaced, someday. Probably not in the next 5 years, maybe not even 10, but it will happen. That’s just how technology works. Something bigger, better, faster will come along and the industry will shift. The cable industry tried to bypass CableCARD by going straight to DCAS, but when they lost that fight they were forced to invest hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, in CableCARD infrastructure. That will discourage any immediate push for DCAS, as they’ll want to recoup their investment. But DCAS, or something like it, seems to be the next logical step down the road. And when that happens it is likely there will be some new features that are not accessible to CableCard/tru2way devices. However, as more devices are upgradeable in software and firmware it is hard to say. Perhaps there will be a generic DCAS module that could plug into a CableCARD slot and add DCAS support to those devices. I wouldn’t rule it out, especially as the cable industry would probably like that to keep their CableCARD STBs compatible. But I wouldn’t worry about any of this in the near term.

They did say that the Tuning Resolver is a high priority for the cable industry and that development is still on track for summer availability. As I reported recently, it looks like early July will be the earliest possible availability date.

Ben Drawbaugh of Engadget shared his horror story of having his cable MSO try to talk him out of using CableCARD and the installers not knowing how to handle the install, and I have to second that. While Charter didn’t try to talk me out of using CableCARD, and the installers who have come to my home has been polite and courteous, they clearly didn’t have enough training and experience installing CableCARD. When I had my first install, as a TiVo Series3 reviewer, I could understand it as I was the first person in the territory to have CableCARDs installed in a TiVo and there weren’t even many CableCARD TVs installed. But over a year later the experience wasn’t much different. And when I’ve had trouble and needed support, the support techs are also woefully confused by CableCARD. As of the last time I called the automated system still didn’t have an option for CableCARD in the menus. Fortunately I’m fairly educated on the technology and determined (aka stubborn), and I was able to make a contact in my local office who has been willing to handle my issues without my dealing with the standard support system. The cable MSOs really need to do a better job on the customer service and support front with CableCARD.

I think Ben was a little confused on DCR+. My understanding of the DCR+ CE proposal pretty much agrees with how the NCTA sees it. It would be today’s DCR with the addition of limited two-way support for specific services such as SDV, PPV, and VOD. But it would not be an open platform for expansion and future services as OCAP is. Of course, specs can evolve so other features could be added to DCR+. However, at this point I personally think DCR+ is DOA. Consumer electronics vendors such as Panasonic and TiVo are already breaking ranks and developing OCAP/tru2way support, and virtually the entire cable industry is investing in OCAP/tru2way. DCR+ just doesn’t have the support to make it.

The call was recorded, and if you really want to know about the history and current situation I encourage you to listen to it, especially if you’re a blogger who covers this arena. It will be available after 15:00 EST today through May 25th (I guess they keep them for a month). Call 1-800-475-6701 and enter access code 920821.

A lot of bloggers were on the call, I know HD Guru, Engadget, Zatz Not Funny (which has already posted about the call), Multichannel News, and others were all on there, so keep watching for their posts.