No other show on television comes close to that comedy in adding 18- to 49-year-old viewers who record shows and watch them later. So far this season, new episodes of “Modern Family” have grown from a first-day average of 7.1 million viewers in that age group to 10.2 million, counting seven days’ worth of added viewing — a gain of 3.1 million each week, according to Nielsen Research.
…
Total popularity does not perfectly correlate with profitability, however, since the networks all agree to sell ad time based on a metric called “C3.” It measures the average viewing of the commercials within a show within three days of the first broadcast, so it excludes people who wait to watch Wednesday’s “Modern Family” until Sunday or Monday.

And the networks are pushing to start selling ads based on a seven day window, which would improve ratings – and therefore pricing – even more.

But in a Letter to the Editor published on Tuesday, TiVo CEO Tom Rogers says “Not so fast”:

Because TiVo can measure viewership for any commercial, not just programs, we know that the majority of the commercials on “Modern Family” are not viewed when watched in recorded mode. Advertisers are being overcharged by paying commercial rates based on the program ratings and not commercial ratings. This is anything but the boon for advertiser-supported network television that the article suggests.

He’s clearly making a bit of a stealth pitch for TiVo’s Stop||Watch ratings service, which provides the kind of ratings granularity that tell advertisers if their ads are being watched or skipped. But he has a solid point nonetheless. It doesn’t matter if someone watches the program if they’re skipping the ads, not when it comes to selling ad time.

The only thing we know for sure is that the television market is changing, and I don’t think anyone has figured out the new magic formula yet. Content needs to be paid for somehow or it doesn’t get made. That’s been through advertising for many years, but is that sustainable? Just like the new reality for films includes licensing to cable networks, streaming services, home video, etc., I think TV content will need to rely increasingly on secondary revenue sources and not the initial broadcast.

It is also a none too subtle shot across the bow of content providers. TWC is currently at loggerheads with Viacom and other providers over TWC’s iPad app which allows customers to stream content directly to the tablet. Viacom claims TWC’s existing content licenses do not cover this, TWC, of course, claims that they do. Offering the Slingbox seems like a clear statement of their being more than one one to skin a cat, as it were.

Via The New York Times.

In it they “urge the Commission to intensify its oversight of the market for competitive navigation devices and its enforcement of its CableCARD rules”, and cite the blog entry – which is included with the filing.

Specifically, in light of a recent article by a New York Times writer (copy attached), TiVo urges the Commission to investigate whether the discriminatory conduct by cable operators that led to the reform of the Commission’s CableCARD rules continues today.

They go on to say:

The story recounts that the writer was first discouraged by Time Warner Cable’s employees from using a TiVo box and was instead encouraged to use the cable operator’s leased box. Next, the writer was not given the option to self-install a CableCARD, even though TiVo provides customers with clear and easy-to-follow instructions on self-installation. The writer was also told that he would be charged $14 a month more for using a CableCARD because he would lose his bundled service discount, effectively penalizing the consumer — instead of offering him a discount — for bringing his own retail navigation device. Based on the writer’s account, Time Warner Cable apparently is actively impeding the development of retail competition for cable set-top boxes contrary to the Commission’s policies.

And:

TiVo therefore urges the Commission to engage in careful oversight of its CableCARD rules and investigate whether Time Warner Cable and other cable operators’ practices are consistent with the rules. While cable operators continue to attack the CableCARD rules as unnecessary, the reality is that retail navigation devices such as the TiVo Premier will continue to face an uphill battle as long as discriminatory cable operator practices continue. Indeed, the writer’s experience was that he felt very positive about the TiVo device itself and its enhanced functionality; it was the set-up difficulties and discriminatory CableCARD charges that left him ambivalent about endorsing using the TiVo Premier.

It is worth reading the whole filing, if you’re interested in such things as it is only a couple of pages, but I think those are the highlights. You’d almost think someone at TiVo read my blog, but it is more likely a case of great minds thinking alike.

The New York Times’ Gadgetwise Blog on Monday posted an entry about TiVo entitled “TiVo, Nice Service if You Can Get It“. It is generally favorable about TiVo itself, but makes it sound like the hassle of getting TiVo may not be worth it because of the increased costs and trouble with getting it set up. But the way I read it is an indictment of cable MSO practices – in this case Time Warner Cable.

Nearly all of the negative points in the article have to do with TWC, something I suspect a number of TiVo users can sympathize with. First they sent the author on a wild goose chase, telling him he could pay $40 for an install or bring his box in to an office to swap for free. So he lugged his box to a TWC office, only to be told the couldn’t give him a CableCARD and he’d need the install visit anyway. (Thankfully that should be changing August 1st, when self-installs become required.)

So he had the installer come out to do the incredibly difficult task of sticking a card into a slot and calling in a couple of numbers. Of course, the installer failed to show for the appointment and he had to reschedule for four days later. When the installer finally showed up he didn’t seem to really know what to do with a CableCARD, a common complaint. But at least it worked on the first actual install visit.

But that’s not all, TWC told him that his monthly bill would go up by $14 because, despite the CableCARD fee being lower than their DVR fee, he’d lose his bundle discount for having both cable and broadband service through them. This is a new one on me, I’ve never heard of anything close to this. He’s still receiving cable and broadband service, so why should they cancel his service bundling discount? This smells like BS to me. I think the rep was trying to use scare tactics to keep him from returning their DVR. I left a comment (currently pending approval) recommending the author contact TWC corporate to confirm the change in his charges, since that really doesn’t smell right to me.

In the end he seemed to like the TiVo service, but the process of getting it installed understandably left bad impression. And if the $14 bill increase holds true, he’s facing an extra $34/month between the TiVo fees and the increased cable bill. (Yes, I also recommended product lifetime in my comment.) This is a much larger increase than most users would face. Normally you’re looking at an increase in the vicinity of $9-12/month if you go with TiVo’s monthly plan. The TiVo is $19.99/month, but cable boxes are generally around $12.95/month. So that’s $7, and CableCARDs normally run $2-5 a month. Sometimes the first card is free, and sometimes it can be a bit higher – $7.50 or so. But for most users it is within that range.

This kind of incident is why I scoff at the cable industry’s claims that we don’t need any more regulation to create a level playing field for third parties, such as TiVo. The new requirements going into effect next month are a start, but I don’t think we should stop there. We need the FCC to pursue AllVid to further open up the market and allow truly competitive products. The current environment is strongly anti-consumer choice. It is Ma Bell pre-Carterfone.

Average hourly earnings are around $18, suggesting that TiVo saves time that could otherwise have been sold for around $108 per week. We should also add in the benefit of higher quality television — around $11 per week — and subtract the cost of the annoying service charge, which is around $3 per week, yielding net benefits of $116 per week, or $6,000 per year. The net present value of this flow is around $120,000 per person, or perhaps around a quarter of a million dollars per household. Wow.

The value would be even higher over time with a lifetime subscription instead of monthly I’d think – though I’m no economist. It is a light-hearted piece, but he is making a serious point about the value of time and entertainment, and how TiVo can maximize that value for you. Read the full article for a break down of his math and the assumptions he bases it on.

There’s some more interesting news in this area that I’ll be able to share soon…

So it is nice to see VUDU giving users the option to wait a little longer and get higher quality content instead of being limited to fast but comparatively poor quality playback. However, they don’t say just what the quality level is. They talk resolution, but, as I’ve said, resolution is just part of the puzzle. All 1080p24 content is, by definition, the same resolution. But if one is 40Mbps and the other is 4Mbps, all else being equal (same codec, etc), one is going to be much higher in quality. I really would like to know what the HDX bitrate is. Conventional non-HDX HD content from VUDU requires 4Mbps, I’m presuming HDX is higher, but how much?

Some press is calling it Blu-ray quality, but that’s bunk. Even without knowing the bitrate being used I’m positive it doesn’t match Blu-ray, and I’m just as positive it doesn’t use lossless audio like Dolby TrueHD or DTS HD-MA. The website says:

HDX technology delivers the best available surround sound quality for Internet delivered movies with immersive, high resolution sound at a 40% higher bit-rate than standard surround sound DVD’s.

‘Standard surround sound DVDs’ use Dolbly Digital at 448Kbps, sounds like they’re using Dolby Digital at 640Kbps.

HDX is definitely a step in the right directly, IMHO, but don’t believe it is Blu-ray quality.

EDIT: Found this from David Pogue at The New York Times:

To see why HDX looks so good — especially on big screens — check its data rate, a measure of how much information is used to describe each frame of the video. It averages around 9 megabits a second, but spikes to 20 during action scenes. Compare that with Vudu standard definition: (2.2 megabits a second), Vudu and Apple TV high definition (4), regular DVD (8) or Blu-ray DVD (40). In other words, HDX quality is somewhere between DVD and Blu-ray. The audio offers a 40 percent improvement, too.

That is a marked improvement over their normal HD streams, but yes, still not Blu-ray quality. It does make the product more appealing in my eyes though, and certainly puts VUDU in the lead as far as HD download services go. I’m not sure if he’s comparing just video bit rates or what – DVD’s full video rate is ~10Mbps, but that’s MPEG-2 so apples and oranges to the others which are H.264. Blu-ray is 40Mbps max for video (not that it is all used normally), 54Mbps total bit rate.

HDX raises my personal interest in VUDU, though with a TiVo Series3, PlayStation3, and SlingCatcher already it isn’t high enough yet to get me to put another box under my TV.

The day begins with a morning meeting where material harvested from 15 TiVos and even more newspapers, magazines and Web sites is reviewed.

That sparked discussion and speculation that Jon was using ‘TiVo’ as a generic reference to some other DVR setup, but no, a former researcher on the show posted a comment and confirmed their setup.

Nope, it’s literally 15 rack-mounted TiVos of various models, many from the pre-Series 2 era. Some Philips boxes, some Sonys. And because there’s a limited number of remote codes, when a staffer operates one, he has to hold the remote directly against that box’s IR receiver so that the beam doesn’t hit any of the other boxes (i.e., so he’s not inadvertently controlling multiple boxes at once). No joke! It’s pretty primitive.

There’s a lot more in the comment, an interesting look behind the scenes of The Daily Show. Since they’re using old Series1 units, how do they get the clips on air?

When TiVo footage is needed for TDS that day (i.e., every day), the clips are dubbed off to Beta tape and brought to an editing bay. Yup, sneakernet. Sounds like a lot of work, right? It is. I wouldn’t be surprised if the show upgrades to a networked PVR system — especially with an imminent move to HD — but I don’t know what their plans are.

So the rack of TiVos may not be in place for long. It sounds like an opportunity for TiVo to supply them with a new HD-capable setup, based on the TiVo HD. I wonder if there is enough business to make it worthwhile for them to develop a customized version of the software with features designed to make it easier for commercial users.

The Daily Show isn’t the only major program using TiVo. An intern for Late Night with Conan O’Brien posted a comment at Boing Boing stating that they use three TiVos content.

I intern at Late Night with Conan O’Brien and am privileged enough to realize how a set-up like The Daily Shows is so mind-boggling. At Late Night we have three TiVo’s that are set-up to record every other late night talk show, several morning to afternoon shows and a few special events that happen now and again. Every morning we burn DVD copies of the previous day’s shows, a process that takes less then 2 hours, depending on the temperament of the recorders.

I picked that one up from CNET’s Crave.

TiVo will begin offering the ability to flag broadcasts in this way to advertisers and programmers over the coming months. So that ad spot for a new DVD? You could order the DVD on the spot. Tonight’s musical guest on your favorite late night talk show sounds good? Buy their CD immediately. Oprah is hawking another book? Order it before she’s done. The outfit that cool new character on your favorite show is wearing looks good? Buy it for yourself.

You’ll also be able to add items to your Amazon cart and finalize the purchase later, online, if you want some time to think it over.

Personally I think this is fantastic. Just the kind of thing a platform like TiVo allows which is a major departure from what we’ve had to date. I know there have been a few attempts at this kind of thing through various interacting television platforms embedded in cable boxes and the like, but they were always very limited. Based on the Times report, it sounds like this functionality in TiVo could extend to pretty much any product sold through Amazon, which is just about anything.

Sure, I have some reservations. Not having see the implementation I don’t know how the interactivity is indicated on screen. I would hope that it is fairly unobtrusive. And while I don’t really care if anyone wants to overlay purchase option over an ad, just as I think the static ads while fast-forwarding through an ad for that product are perfectly fine, if this will also be available during actual program content it had better be very small, like the ‘camera’ icon you get on many DVD or Blu-ray players when the content has multiple angles available. And, like that icon, the user should be able to disable the indicator completely.

I’m also presuming there is some level of security on the purchase, some kind of PIN or password that must be entered to complete the purchase. While I prefer to keep it off, One Click purchasing on the web is one thing. But it wouldn’t be acceptable on a TiVo where any child or visitor could, deliberately or by accident, place orders.

Neither TiVo nor Amazon are fools, so I’m more than willing to give them the benefit of the doubt and believe that they’ll do a decent job with the implementation. The real key will be how many advertisers and programming providers they can sign up to create the embedded product links. TiVo and Amazon will have to make it easy, and perhaps offer some enticement, as TiVo’s total user base is fairly small. Especially as I’d bet this feature will only work on broadband connected standalone TiVos, and not the DirecTiVo nor the Comcast OCAP units, at this not initially.

The new streaming service will apparently be called Amazon Video on Demand, and it will be distinct from Amazon Unbox, Amazon’s purchase and rental download service. The Times reports Amazon will have 40,000 titles available for instant streaming. I don’t see the new service as a replacement for Amazon Unbox, but rather a compliment. After all, you will need an active Internet connection to stream video on the new service. Unbox allows you to download video to watch later, off-line – such as on your laptop while on a plane, or on a PMP while traveling. And it is a fairly open secret that Amazon intends to offer HD content through Unbox, and true HD content does not lend itself to streaming on today’s networks. Streaming vs. downloads vs. physical media (DVD/BD) really lay along a convenience vs. quality curve, as a generalization. Streaming is instant gratification, but the lowest quality. Downloads take longer, but will generally offer higher bit rates and hence higher quality. And physical media, in the form of DVD, offers yet higher bit rates. As well as extras, often times audio formats not found on downloads or streams (5.1 Dolby Digital or DTS), additional languages, subtitles, etc. But with the inconvenience of a wait to receive the media. And Blu-ray is at the end of the scale with the highest bit rates, full 1080p HD, often 7.1 lossless audio, etc. All of these options compliment each other and will appeal to different users, or under different circumstances to the same user. (I myself buy a number of Blu-ray discs and love the quality. I also still buy some DVDs, though less now with BD. But I also use Amazon Unbox through my TiVo to check out movies I don’t have as strong an interest in, or impulse rentals due to sales, etc.)

Currently, aside from a PC, Amazon has a deal with Sony to make the streaming content available via Sony Bravia HDTVs. Today that requires the Sony Bravia Internet Video link, which is a $300 add-on. But in the future Sony is expected to build the Internet connectivity directly into new models in the Bravia line. Amazon says they’ll pursue relationships with other TV and Internet device vendors. Which, of course, begs the obvious question – what about their current flagship CE partner, TiVo?

While TiVo isn’t mentioned in the article, I really have to believe this is in the works. TiVo releases H.264 and video streaming support, and they just happen to do so on the same day Amazon makes their streaming service available to the first users? TiVo and Amazon already have a relationship with Unbox, an apparently very successful one, so you know they had to discuss the streaming service early on. With the infrastructure in place with 9.4, TiVo could throw the switch at any time just by updating the HME application that is used for all of the broadband video options. No further software update would be required in the field. I think it is a safe bet that we’ll see Amazon Video on Demand on the Series3 & TiVo HD in the future, perhaps the near future.

Picked up via EngadgetHD.

UPDATE: I went looking around Amazon to see if there was any information on the streaming trial, and on the Amazon Unbox page there was a link in the upper right to sign up for the beta. It says space is limited, so I’d jump on it, don’t procrastinate.

And just to fully confirm that Unbox downloads are not going anywhere:

The goal of this Beta is to test our new instant streaming feature. Don’t want to wait for your video to download? Want to avoid downloading additional software? Want to watch Unbox videos on a Mac? Amazon Video On Demand is the solution to these common customer requests. Purchase or rent a video and you will have instant streaming access to your video from any PC or Mac. All of the existing Unbox functionality remains. You can continue to download your videos for offline playback on a PC or TiVo.

To me this sounds like a combination of a Guru Guide, for the recommendations, and a special TiVoCast channel for her videos. Which is a new way to use the existing platforms.

TiVo CEO Tom Rogers said that TiVo is in talks for similar partnerships in other areas. And it sounds like there is some revenue sharing with The Tribune in this deal:

The more immediate benefit may come from Chicago-area consumers who choose to subscribe to TiVo after seeing the newspaper’s advertisements of the service. The Tribune will receive a share of the new subscriber revenue.

Since TiVo’s quarterly call is tomorrow, we’ll probably hear about this then.

The Best Buy cards, which will not expire, will be sent automatically to most customers who purchased HD DVD hardware by February 23, when Toshiba announced that it was abandoning the format. Best Buy’s list includes those who belong to their rewards program, bought extended warranties, or purchased the machine on its Web site. Others need to show proof of purchase to get their cards.

Basically, if Best Buy knows who you are they’ll send you the card automatically. Otherwise you’re going to have to go in and claim it, with proof of purchase. Best Buy sold HD DVD players to over 200,000 customers, so if everyone eligible claims their card this could cost them over $10 million. But it is clearly a solid PR move to help those who might feel burned by picking the loser in the format war take a more favorable view of Best Buy. And, since the card is only good at Best Buy, it will help encourage them to come back in and buy more – perhaps a Blu-ray player.