Of course, Netflix has already moved beyond the Roku box, streaming to Blu-ray players from LG Electronics and Samsung, TiVo, and soon Xbox 360. And, of course, PCs and now Macs.

Blockbuster just can’t seem to catch up, let alone get ahead.

Picked up via Format War Central.

While some HD DVD die hards pointed to CH-DVD as if it were some kind of phoenix in the form of which HD DVD would rise from the ashes, it looks like even those hopes have been dashed. The BDA points out that since the demise of HD DVD, Chinese manufacturers have been flocking to Blu-ray, and that while the number of members in the BDA has increased to 187, the number of members in the DVD Forum (which backs DVD and HD DVD) has decreased from 240 to 163! The BDA last fall began evaluating Chinese codecs for inclusion in the BD specification. China has made support of the codecs a requirement for any advanced format released in China, and the codecs were the main difference between HD DVD and CH-DVD. This license development could hint at progress in including those codecs to support a domestic BD release in China.

Video Business reports that high-end consumer electronics retailers expect Blu-ray players to begin outselling DVD players as early as this August, riding a wave of increased player availability and lower prices. On a dollar basis, retailer Crutchfield is already reporting that Blu-ray is outselling DVD 60:40, but that’s largely due to the higher prices on BD decks.

The current Home Media Magazine has a product guide which provides an overview and comparison of the forthcoming Blu-ray players that have been announced. It is worth checking out if you’re thinking about buying a BD deck. Personally I wouldn’t even consider a Profile 1.1/Bonus View deck at this point – stick with Profile 2.0/BD-Live – at least BD-Live Ready.

From Blu-ray.com and Blu-ray Stats.

The new BD/DVD chart only compares the top 20 titles by unit volume for each format, but BD has 6% of the market to DVD’s 94%. That may not sound like much, but it is pretty good for a fledgling format just coming off the end of a format war that slowed adoption. As more and more major releases hit Blu-ray day-and-date, especially once Universal, Paramount, and DreamWorks Animation start their BD releases, that percentage should rise steadily – give or take a bit each week for variation.

This issue has a lot of BD coverage – the entire front page is BD-related articles. New releases are seeing an increasing percentage of sales on BD. No Country for Old Men saw 9.8% of sales on BD (the rest on DVD), while Hitman saw 12.6% of sales on BD. That compares to levels of 2-3% for most titles during the format war. With the spike in BD growth, one of the articles examines the issues replicators are facing in adopting to BD demand. The up-front investment in a BD production line runs from $1.5 to $1.7 million for a 25GB line to nearly $2.7 million for a 50GB line. Yields of usable discs is now up to around 75%, from only about half early on. But this isn’t dissimilar to what happened with DVD early on, and over time yields will increase and costs will decrease.

New research from Strategy Analytics predicts that Blu-ray will be in 30 million homes by the end of the year, and 132 million by 2012.

“Not a consumer interviewed wants to buy another set-top box,” said Richard Doherty, research director for research firm The Envisioneering Group.

I certainly can’t argue with that, I’m loathe to add another STB to my stack. And I’ve said so repeatedly. I think that gives TiVo and the Xbox 360 an edge – people buy them for other functions (DVR & gaming, respectively), and the downloads are kind of a bonus. And when it comes to HD, I have to agree with this as well:

Richard Bullwinkle, chief evangelist for Macrovision, predicts a layering effect. Macrovision has looked at TiVo, Xbox 360, Vudu and Apple TV.

“The best experience on a large TV is Blu-ray,” he said. “None of the download boxes gives you the same experience.”

But I thought what they said about TiVo in particular was unfair.

But download times are long, nothing is available in high-def, and the 24-hour rental period once the movie has started can be problematic.

The download times are roughly comparable to other services – but it, of course, will vary a lot. The TiVo Series3 and TiVo HD have had progressive download since 9.2 – which means they can start playback once enough of a buffer has built up, with no need to wait until it is all downloaded. I’d expect the Series2 to get the same in the next update. (They’re still on 9.1.) And the article makes the 24-hour window sound like a problem unique to TiVo when it is common to all of the download rental services. They don’t mention it when talking about the three other products, so readers who don’t know what will think this is a TiVo limitation. But there is more:

However, Bullwinkle said, TiVo offers the worst quality of any of the movie downloading options he’s tried, and the number of TiVo owners who download movies is small.

Ouch. That especially stings given who it is coming from. Why? For those who don’t know, once upon a time Richard Bullwinkle was known online as TiVolutionary. He was one of the early TiVo employees and their primary online evangelist on forums like TiVoCommunity.com. Back in May of 2002 he left TiVo and went to work for ReplayTV. And now he’s with Macrovision.

The quality issue is largely subjective, so I’ll leave that as may be, but how does he know how many users download movies? I don’t believe TiVo or Amazon release those numbers. Did they do an independent survey of TiVo owners? Where is the data to back up the claim?

But TiVo isn’t the only one to get a little heat in the article. All four products get what I consider to be fairly poor reviews, highlighting their shortcomings. But read the article for yourself.

TiVo also got another mention in this issue, with a small article on the roll-out of TiVo Desktop 2.6. (And I apologize for not having my review of said up yet, the behind-the-scenes work on the renaming took a lot more time than I expected.)

This issue of Home Media Magazine also includes an article which states Sony and Microsoft are in talks to bring Blu-ray to the Xbox 360. President of Sony Electronics U.S., Stan Glasgow, said that a Blu-ray drive could be incorporated in the Xbox Elite model, or as an add-on, as originally reported in the Financial Times online edition. Glasgow also said that Sony is in talks with Apple about the use of Blu-ray in Macs.

For the week ending 2/17, the last week before Toshiba pulled the plug on HD DVD, HD DVD managed to jump back to a 27% share, with Blu-ray at 73%. That put them at 76:24 for the year, and 65:35 since inception. It was clear Toshiba’s efforts were not working, with HD DVD only clawing back to roughly 3:1, from the previous week’s 4:1, which is still a big drop from the 2:1 split it held for most of 2007. Something I found interesting. During the war, Home Media Magazine usually had the BD/HD DVD split graphs right on the cover – this week they’re on page 40. There is also a dedicated Blu-ray supplement on this issue, which includes a list of currently announced 2088 releases through May. And a little article entitled “Format War’s End Kills Bloggers Main Topic“.

Onkyo, which had previously suspended HD DVD player production, has now officially killed their HD DVD players permanently. Since they used Toshiba components it is hardly surprising. They are instead turning to Blu-ray. Development of an Onkyo Blu-ray player has been underway, but no specific announcement has yet been made. Though it seems likely we’ll see it later this year, almost certainly before the holidays. Via Blu-ray.com.

sofatronic’s announces Kaleidoscope software, which makes authoring BD-J applications easier by allowing authors to create applications via a GUI editor. EngadgetHD has a press release from sofatronic about the release. Using the tool, authors can create interacting Blu-ray menus and applications without having to write any Java code. The tool will create the Java code for BD-J automatically. This is exactly the kind of thing I like to see, and hope to see more of. The easier it is for designers and authors to exploit the power of BD-J, the more use it will get.

The release:

sofatronic releases Kaleidoscope

Hamburg/Los Angeles, Feb 22, 2008 – Commercial Release of Kaleidoscope

sofatronic is releasing Kaleidoscope, a software platform for creating interactive applications on Blu-ray Discs. Working in a visual authoring environment, users can create user interfaces and advanced interactive features using the format’s unique capabilities without having to write Java code.

Kaleidoscope’s application framework supports all available Blu-ray player models and automatically handles performance differences and compatibility issues, two of the main concerns for Blu-ray authors today .

“The sofatronic team is extremely proud of today’s release of Kaleidoscope not merely for having succeeded in providing a technical solution to the various issues facing the HD industry, but in fact exceeding all expectations of what is possible with the platform. Without a shred of programming knowledge, the in-house designers at movie studios and authoring facilities can create an exciting palette of applications for the entire range of Blu-ray players – and bring it in under budget and on time.”
Rouven Malecki, CTO sofatronic.

sofatronic’s partners receive regular updates and access to new features via the company’s Developer Portal. Newly developed Application Modules are also published here, which make use of the advanced features of the Blu-ray platform, such as internet connectivity. All this and extensive technical support can be found at www.sofatronic-dev.com.

“While Universal values the close partnership we have shared with Toshiba, it is time to turn our focus to releasing new and catalog titles on Blu-ray,” said Craig Kornblau, president of Universal Studios Home Entertainment.

“The path for widespread adoption of the next-generation platform has finally become clear. Universal will continue its aggressive efforts to broaden awareness for high-def’s unparalleled offerings in interactivity and connectivity, at an increasingly affordable price. The emergence of a single, high-definition format is cause for consumers, as well as the entire entertainment industry, to celebrate.”

I’m actually a bit surprised. Not that Universal is supporting Blu-ray, that was obviously coming, but that they made the announcement before Paramount – who still hasn’t done so, from what I can tell. Since Paramount, and DreamWorks Animation, were formerly format neutral, releasing both Blu-ray and HD DVD, I kind of expected them to be the first to jump on the news. Paramount probably still has warehouses full of Blades of Glory Blu-ray discs, and other titles they’d already pressed for release on BD before their sudden shift to HD DVD exclusivity. They could start by give those discs a new street date. I’m sure they’ll announce their plans soon.

Via Blu-ray.com.

“DVD-Video was first introduced into Western Europe in 1997, and the following year some 230,000 DVD players were installed and 2 million discs were sold through,” the group said. “In comparison, Blu-ray Disc made its first tentative launch in Western Europe in 2006, and the following year some 3.2 million PlayStation 3 (PS3) consoles and 34,000 standalone players were installed, while 2.3 million Blu-ray discs sold through.”

Via Blu-ray.com.

In hardware news, What Hi-Fi? Sound And Vision reports on Harmon Kardon’s Blu-ray plans. At a product launch in Munich Harmon Kardon announced that they’ll be releasing a BD player at the IFA Show in Berlin in September, priced between £450-£500 (the site is in the UK). Details have yet to be announced, but HK also stated that they will add additional BD systems to their lineup, including an all-in-one system, next year.

More incredibly, HK says they’re working on a high-end HDD/BD recorder. The specs are pretty extreme:

Harman Kardon is also working on a Blu-ray/HDD recorder that can record up to eight channels of TV. The DVC 600 digital video entertainment centre (above) has a 1 Terabyte hard drive, twin built-in digital TV tuners and can record up to eight standard- or high-definition TV channels simultaneously.

What’s more, a ninth channel can be recorded in the background using the manual or automatic timeshift function, and a tenth channel can be viewed at the same time. Quite when you might have time to watch all your recordings is another matter.

See What HiFi? for more details. Via Blu-ray.com.

And Home Media Magazine had some kind words for Blu-ray from Lionsgate president and Co-COO Steve Beeks:

Beeks said Lionsgate Blu-ray revenue in January was about seven times higher than last year. The studio has already shipped as many BD releases this year as in entire 2007.

“We expect the industry to unite behind Blu-ray by the summer, which should drive the current HD market to triple in size from $300 million in 2007 to more than $1 billion this year,” he said. “It is exciting again to have a true growth opportunity in home entertainment as we expect Blu-ray revenue to be largely incremental in the near term.”

Things continue to look pretty good for Blu-ray.

In another blow, Scandinavian retailer Hi-Fi Klubben announced that going forward they will no longer sell HD DVD. They’re putting their existing HD DVD stock on clearance to get rid of it and will be focusing exclusively on Blu-ray going forward. Hi-Fi Klubben via Blu-ray.com.

And Michael Bay is at it again, talking up Blu-ray and slamming HD DVD. Home Media Magazine reports:

“Blu-ray’s better, and I told everyone,” Bay said at the Visual Effects Society’s sixth annual award show, where he presented the award for animated character in a motion picture. “I was very vocal about it. I knew HD [DVD] was not going to make it.”

With HD DVD being edged out of competition by sheer volume of product moving to Blu-ray, Bay is all but gloating.

“Am I thrilled? It really wasn’t my fight, but remember what I said in the press? I was kind of saying HD [DVD]’s going to lose,” he said. “No one believed me.”

Bay has always been fairly vocal about his preference for Blu-ray over HD DVD, he has to be loving the recent developments. Via Blu-ray.com.

We’ll see how they fare once Warner stops releasing HD DVDs at the end of May, not to mention their big 85th Anniversary push on DVD and Blu-ray.

There is also an interesting article on the format war outside of the US. High-def player adoption outside of the US has been much slower, due to higher player pricing and a later introduction of both formats. It also shows the importance of the PS3 to the format war. For the top five European countries, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK, high-def player shipments for 2007 are estimated to be 160,000, with 668,000 projected for 2008. By comparison, 2.36 million PS3s shipped in 2007, with 5.37 million expected in 2008. The PS3 certainly plays a large role in Blu-rays market dominance in European high-def media sales, even more so than in the US. In 2007 Blu-ray took a 3:1 sales lead over HD DVD for media sales in Europe. But that doesn’t match the 5:1 advantage in Australia, let alone the 9:1 advantage in Japan, which makes the 2:1 advantage in the US look not so bad for HD DVD by way of comparison.

Olivier Van Wynendaele, the European assistant general manager of Toshiba’s Consumer Products Division, said: “While we’re disappointed by Woolworths’ decision, it is extremely early to spot which format will eventually win. We’re confident that HD DVD’s affordability, fantastic choice of movies, great consumer experience and upcoming promotions will help it continue to strengthen its share of the market.”

I think Toshiba’s strategy is to put out so much spin that they reverse the earth’s rotation, and thereby turn back time.

Meanwhile, back in reality, the 800-pound gorilla of the analyst world, Gartner, has called the war for Blu-ray in 2008. According to EngadgetHD they wrote:“Gartner believes that Toshiba’s price-cutting may prolong HD DVD’s life a little, but the limited line-up of film titles will inflict fatal damage on the format.” And furthermore called Toshiba’s recent player price cuts“useless resistance” – ouch. Their conclusion?“Gartner expects that, by the end of 2008, Blu-ray will be the winning format in the consumer market, and the war will be over.” Hardly a shocking conclusion in light of the continuing bad news for HD DVD, but I certainly hope HD DVD calls it quits sooner rather than later.

But apparently just not quite yet. In what, to me, seems like throwing good money after bad, Home Media Magazine reports that Toshiba will run a 30-second spot for HD DVD during Super Bowl XLII on February 3rd. The spot will highlight the HD-A3, HD-A30, and HD-A35 HD DVD players, which recently had their prices slashed. Fox TV reportedly charged $2.7 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot, plus whatever it cost Toshiba to put together the ad. The Blu-ray Disc Association reportedly considered running a Super Bowl spot, but decided against doing so. But Andy Parsons, SVP of industrial solutions business group for Panasonic Electronics and BDA spokesperson, took the opportunity for a little dig at Toshiba:

I certainly admire [Toshiba's] chutzpah,” Parsons said. “They can certainly choose to do as they please with their marketing. Running a Super Bowl ad is not likely to convince consumers than HD DVD will win the format war.”

I’d have to agree. Toshiba may see a bump in sales from the ad, on top of their price cuts, but it is going to take a lot more than one Super Bowl ad to turn the market in their favor.

And it looks like Circuit City may be dropping HD DVD in their stores as well. Rumors have been flying around about Circuit City putting HD DVD players on clearance, and now Format War Central has photographic proof. It seems Circuit City is blowing out the HD-A3 for $100 and the HD-A30 for $149, clearly marked ‘Clearance’. With no 4th generation players on the horizon, it would seem that if they clear out the 3rd generation units, there is nothing to replace them.

At the same time, NPD has expanded on the player sales numbers leaked via The Digital Bits earlier this week. Blu-ray’s 93/7 advantage over HD DVD is due more to HD DVD player sales tanking than BD sales increasing. According to NPD’s raw retail data, as published by Home Media Magazine, consumers purchased only 1,758 HD DVD players the week of 1/12, down from 14,558 the previous week. While consumers purchased 21,770 BD players, up from 15,257 the previous week. It remains to be seen how much ground HD DVD can recover in light of Toshiba’s price cuts which took effect on 1/13. Via EngadgetHD.

In further bad news for HD DVD the word out of the AVN show is that adult film studio Digital Playground, which had earlier announced a shift from HD DVD to a neutral stance, has decided to drop HD DVD completely and release their titles solely on Blu-ray due to superior sales of their BD releases tied with the Warner announcement and perceived shift in the market.

In fact, it seems that the adult video market is turning Blu in general. PC Magazine is reporting that Hustler Video Group is “leaning Blu-ray” after the Warner announcement. They plan to release 15-25 HD videos in 2008, ‘most of which will probably be Blu-ray’. Vivid Entertainment is maintaining a neutral stance, releasing both formats, for now. Wicked Pictures, which has released HD DVD until now, is now “aggressively” looking at Blu-ray options and expects to have a Blu-ray producer in the new few weeks, and have their first BD title out in the next few months. Silver Sinema said: “With the Warner Brothers decision, the market will direct the outcome.” While the adult market is unlikely to have the sway in this format war that it did in the VHS vs. Betamax war, it is a sign of the trend in the market. Via EngadgetHD.

And last, but not least, Home Media Magazine is reporting that for the week ending January 13th, the first full week after Warner’s announcement, Blu-ray took 85% of the high-def media sales, with HD DVD garnering the remaining 15%. That’s a major shift from the normal 65/35 balance that they’d been hovering around for a while. It remains to be seen if that shift is permanent or just a post-announcement spike.

With Warner Home Video dumping HD DVD, the format has the support of just two of the six major studios. It cannot win. At best, it can be a spoiler, but I’m hoping Toshiba, Universal and Paramount will take the high road and, for the good of the entire industry, bow out. Universal and Paramount, in particular, need to jump on the Blu-ray Disc bandwagon so we can go into the new year with a unified front and a unified mission: To educate consumers about the advantages of high-definition media and convince them the time to transition from standard DVD to Blu-ray is the day they bring that HDTV into their home.

I agree completely. At this point HD DVD cannot win. The only choice is between a prolonged war and a unified market that can move forward as one. Toshiba has done some good work on HD DVD hardware, work they could just as readily apply to Blu-ray and produce some top notch players. Their HD DVD player platform could very readily be converted to Blu-ray.

A unified HD format market would reduce consumer confusion and hesitation and help speed adoption. It would also encourage investment in production infrastructure, which has lagged as companies are worried about investing in plants for the wrong format. It is time to put the war behind us and work on improving the product offerings. At this point continuing the fragment the market is just sour grapes and being sore losers.

If Toshiba, Universal, and Paramount won’t do the right thing, the Best Buys and Wal*Marts of the world could end the war too. Someone, step up and stick a fork in HD DVD. Put it out if its, and our, misery.

Via Blu-ray.com.