Going into this CES I’m not sure what the big deal is going to be this year, if there is one. The economy is down and I haven’t really felt any particular buzz about any given area of the market. HDTVs get bigger while getting thinner and faster (refresh rates). We may see some interesting 3D technologies which will start to enter homes in the next few years. Palm is expected to announce Nova and new hardware, but I’m not excited. I was a die-hard Palm OS user for many years, since 1998, and still carry a Treo 680. But after five or more years of waiting for Palm OS 6 Cobalt Nova I just don’t feel that inspired. I’m already focused on Android as my next likely platform, and it would take a lot for Palm to sway me. Even if they produce an incredible OS, they have an uphill battle ahead to win over developers. I don’t think they have a real chance at this point to gain significant market share. And without that the developers won’t come – and the apps really make the platform.

Going forward I think the mobile market will effectively be, in no particular order, Windows Mobile Professional, BlackBerry, Symbian S60, iPhone, and Android. The original Palm OS is the walking dead, and I don’t see Nova/Palm OS II carving out enough market share to be viable. Symbian UIQ is effectively dead as SonyEricsson and Motorola have pulled out and the Symbian world is focused on the S60-based open source effort. Windows Mobile Standard (aka Smartphone) is rapidly dying as Professional-based touch screen devices move into the lower end of the market where Standard used to focus. I expect Android, which is basically just coming into the market, to post the biggest gains as more devices land. I think the LiMo/LIPS effort will falter and expect to see some of the vendors who have been working on it switch to Android. I think those five platforms will provide the bulk of the smartphone market, anything else will be a small niche.

We’ll probably see more tru2way devices on display from a number of vendors this year, but I don’t know that we’ll see anything revolutionary in that market. I’m hoping TiVo may be showing off their ‘Series4′ tru2way-enabled model, which they’re believed to have been working on for a while. And they may be showing their new DirecTV software, which I expect will be running on the HR20/21/22 DirecTV DVR Plus hardware. I’m not expecting anything else major, maybe some new content partnership announcements and perhaps plans to bring TiVo to more countries. (I’m surprised they haven’t re-launched in the UK yet with the DVB-T model actually.)

The past couple of years the Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD fight provided some interest. But that was effectively over with CES2008, and officially ended when Toshiba threw in the towel in February. There aren’t likely to be any big announcements in the Blu-ray world, aside from more content partnerships like LG adding CinemaNow and YouTube to Netflix on their players. Maybe someone will be showing off higher density disc or 3D content concepts.

I’m hoping to be surprised by something at the show, something just unexpected. If you know of something I should be on the look out for, do let me know. And if you’re going to CES drop by the Sling Media booth and say hello. I believe I’m on the afternoons of Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday, and on Friday morning. I’m also scheduled to present for Sling Media at CntrStg on Saturday. Frankly I’m nervous as hell about that. It has been years since I’ve done a presentation or talk at a tradeshow and never at anything as big as CES.

OK, off to finish packing.

Well, OK, no, I’m not even mildly surprised.

According to Register Hardware, Palm is delaying Palm OS II, aka Nova, again. Palm OS II was originally expected on phones in 2007, then delayed until 2008, then late 2008. Now they say it’ll be ‘finished’ by the end of 2008, but we won’t be seeing any handsets using it until the first half of 2008. And, frankly, I wouldn’t place any bets on it. I’ve been a Palm OS user since 1998, but I’m not sure Palm is really relevant as an OS vendor anymore. They make some great Windows Mobile based devices, if I were in the market for WinMob the Treo Pro would be a top contender, but the existing Palm OS is terribly out of date. And now they’re going to be launching a new OS into a market full of WinMob, iPhone, Symbian, and two major Linux platforms – LiMo and Android. As a third Linux platform I don’t know that they’ll be able to garner developer mindshare. I really would rather see Palm take Android and work their magic on it as they’ve done to WinMob.

On the bright side for Palm, one of their major competitors, Windows Mobile, is also facing a delay. CNET reports that Windows Mobile 7 will be delayed from early 2009 to the second half of the year. That could be good news for Palm as WinMob 6 is starting to age and WinMob 7 promises a number of significant improvements. The delay means Palm’s Nova won’t be going directly against WinMob7 – unless it is further delayed, of course. The delay is also good news for Android, which, unless you’ve been under a rock, you’re probably aware launched today with T-Mobile’s G1. We should be seeing more Android phones and the WinMob delay gives Android more time to grab market share.

Picked up via Gizmodo.

I’ve been swamped with work so I haven’t been able to do more than skim most of today’s coverage of the Android launch and read a few of the reports in full. I have mixed feelings. The platform itself looks solid to me, but I think I’ll wait to see some more phones using it. I don’t like the G1′s lack of 3.5mm headphone jack, I can’t believe they left that off after the backlash against other phones. But that’s HTC and not Google or Android. And some of the features I’d need, like Exchange support for work, are being left to 3rd parties. I am 100% sure the hole will be filled, and can actually appreciate that approach – no native app makes the market more attractive to developers – but I’ll have to give it time. Still, I like what I see and think that with a little polish (this is the 1.0 release after all) it will probably be my next phone OS.

Spotted via Engadget.

Palm has also released a new color of Centro for AT&T users. In addition to the existing ‘Obsidian’ (Black) and Glacier (White) AT&T colors, you can now get it in ‘Electric Blue’ (kind of a light, metallic blue). Prices start at $99.99 – after rebate and with qualifying service plan, and they go up to $349 if you don’t want to commit to a plan.

I still think the Centro is a great ‘starter’ smartphone, or a step up for anyone who is considering one of the ‘feature phones’ which tend to cost more but offer less flexibility. The 800w looks nice, and if I didn’t dislike WinMob so much I’d consider it myself. Well, no, because I’d wait for a GSM version, but you get the point. It does give me a little hope that, if Palm ever manages to release Palm OS II, they may once again have some really nice products. And if I haven’t jumped on Android by then I might even try them.

First off, I failed to cover this a couple of weeks ago. On June 12th the Palm Centro became available on the Verizon network. As is usual with the Centro, the standard price is $99.99 with a 2-year contract. But through July 6th it is eligible for the above deal, a $50 rebate that drops it to $49.99. And Verizon is offering a $29.99/month ‘email and web’ plan for the Centro.

And now, as of Monday, Palm is selling an unlocked GSM Palm Centro for $299. It is more than the $99.99 you can get with a subsidy locked phone from AT&T, Sprint, or Verizon, but those require a 2-year contract and only work on the purchase network. The unlocked GSM Centro has no contract requirements and it works on any GSM network, just stick in you SIM card.

And there’s more good news for all Centro owners. Google Mobile Maps has finally been updated for Palm OS, from 1.2.0.9 to 2.0.2.0 – including ‘My Location’. ‘My Location’ is a beta feature for Google Mobile Maps which uses the cellular network to estimate your location. It isn’t as accurate as GPS would be, but it can be pretty close. You can download it directly to your Centro by visiting http://m.google.com/gmm using the browser on the phone. Well, actually, I fibbed – it isn’t all Centro owners. My Location doesn’t work on the Sprint Centros – yet. Sprint users have to wait for a software update due this summer.

Actually, the update is available for all Palm OS Treo models as well. However, the ‘My Location’ feature only works on the Centro – for reasons yet to be explained. If you try to use it on a Treo, like my Treo 680, it tells you:

The My Location feature is not available for this device. It is available for Palm Centro phones.

Palm, and Google, claim that the issue is that the version of Palm OS on the Treo lacks the API’s required to support My Location. OK, well, I have an idea – update the blasted software to add the APIs! Is that really so hard? They’re doing it for the Sprint Centro!

Actually, it is worse than that. Reportedly the APIs are in the OS already, but they’re private so 3rd party developers like Google can’t access them. They’re used for the E911 location requirements for emergency services. So it would seem all Palm would have to do is make them public, as they are on the Centro.

I have a suspicion that it is really some stupid business decision to try to draw people to the Centro by giving it features the other models lack. Why do I suspect this? Because there is a freeware patch to GMM 1.2.0.9 for the GSM Treo 650 and 680 (sorry, not CDMA Treos nor the old Treo 600) which adds ‘My Location’ functionality! So, clearly, it isn’t a hardware issue on GSM Treos, and it isn’t even a big software issue if a 3rd party developer can hack together a patch! (It may well be possible for CDMA Treo’s as well, but the radio systems are different.) Even if the APIs used on the Centro are missing, it seems more like a convenient excuse. And, again, software can be updated. If Palm has any plans to do so it would be good customer relations to say so. At it stands it looks like they’re snubbing the users of their more expensive phones.

Things like this really make me less likely to stick by Palm, and more likely to jump to the first decent Android handset I can get. Heck, I’d even consider the iPhone now that it is 3G, if only they’d get it past 60GB storage so it could replace my iPod completely. And I’m not the only one upset by this, going by the comments on Palm’s blog. I’ll note that the moderate comments, so those comments are only those that Palm approved. And I know they haven’t approved all the comments they’ve received, because mine never appeared. Readers at Treonauts and Palm Infocenter are rather displeased as well.

If you’re looking for an inexpensive smartphone with a lot of capabilities, the Centro is the one I’d recommend. It has more features than many phones that cost far more. There are ‘feature phones’, which are a step down from smartphones, which cost more and don’t have as many features as the Centro, let alone the thousands of applications (many free) available for Palm OS. Palm could stand to improve their customer communications though.

Available on the AT&T and Sprint wireless networks (and expected on Verizon soon), the Centro joins the Palm Treo family of cell phones as a slimmer, sleeker entry, one we can more reasonably imagine carrying around as a phone for daily use. It’s a long time since the Motorola MicroTAC Elite seemed svelte, and too many smartphones err on the side of pretty chunky. By contrast, the Centro is narrow and easy to grip, similar in width to Motorola’s more recent offerings, such as the RAZR and ROKR.

The Keyboard’s Where it’s At — The only drawback to the Centro’s narrower design is that it sports the smallest keyboard Palm has yet offered on its handhelds. Having used a Palm Tungsten C for a while, I was used to the idea of teensy keys placed close together, but at a full inch wider than the Centro, the Tungsten has room for bigger, much more widely spaced keys. The difference is clear with sustained typing; only those with relatively small hands will be comfortable with much typing on the Centro. Even the extra fifth of an inch (about a half centimeter) of width on the Treo seems to make a difference in typing ease.

But, if you have relatively small hands or you’re dexterous with your big fingers, having a keyboard makes all the difference when composing email and text messages. I found that after a few minutes, I was pretty adept at punching out a few sentences at a time – also true with the iPhone, but even with the iPhone’s adaptive typing recognition, which guesses what you meant to type even if you miss every third letter, lots of users have said they prefer a real keyboard.

Purely Palm — Another key advantage for the Centro is its familiarity for those who’ve used Palm handhelds, often for many years or several models. Detractors say the gradually updated and incrementally refined user interface has fallen way behind, but I have to say that the Centro’s Palm OS offers a clean simplicity that shouldn’t be underestimated.

Anyone who used the original Palm user interface will immediately recognize it in what it’s evolved into; there are more icons on the Applications screen, but a few iterations ago, Palm made them sleeker and colorized them, as well as grouping them into (optional) categories for easy navigation.

As with other recent Palm handhelds, the Centro has an idiosyncratic relationship with Mac OS X, my platform of choice. The Palm Desktop software hasn’t been updated in years, but if you want to use it to manage syncing of your contacts, calendar, and other info between handheld and Mac, you can. Or, Palm’s HotSync software can now collaborate with iSync to allow users to stick with Apple’s Address Book and iCal. We suspect most Mac users will take this approach, especially if they don’t have a long-standing Palm habit.

The Centro includes a web browser and email client; neither is a spectacular example of its genre, but both are capable as handheld applications go. The web browser can display graphics but not much in the way of page layout; Palm web browsing hasn’t changed much in the several years it’s been around, though the Blazer browser is surprisingly adept at displaying Google Maps.

No Surprises — There’s not much else to say, if you’re familiar with using cell phones and you’re familiar with using Palm handhelds. (We suspect relatively few users are jumping on the Palm bandwagon for the first time by picking up a smartphone.) The audio quality is fine, the reception strength is reasonable even in fringe areas (easy to test in my basement, where the iPhone and my Verizon Wireless phone also have trouble), and the battery lasts one to three days of off-and-on use. (You’ll probably want to charge daily.)

What’s the best feature of the Palm Centro? I think it’s the ability to use the Palm OS version of SlingPlayer Mobile, the handheld version of Sling Media’s placeshifting video viewing software. With my Slingbox hooked to my TiVo, I was pleasantly surprised at how watchable both live TV and pre-recorded programs were. The delay in sending remote-control signals from the Centro to the TiVo via cellular connection wasn’t even significantly worse than using Sling’s desktop software via broadband.

Do You Want One? — There’s no question that the Centro is a capable phone, and a worthy successor to a decade of Palm handhelds. In a world with no iPhone, Palm’s Centro and Treo smartphones would be the clear alternative to the quirky Windows Mobile and the walled garden of RIM’s BlackBerry. But with Apple’s category-killer in the game, and an updated iPhone looming, the Centro will be most attractive to those with an attachment to the Palm way of life and those who just need a small dose of smartphone, i.e. those for whom the iPhone is overpriced overkill.

The Centro is most attractive of all right now, with a $50 rebate MegaZone noticed, making the phone effectively $49 instead of $99 through July 6th.

Additionally, through June 11th you can save up to 50% on select accessories and get a free Palm® Aces Texas Hold ‘em No Limit CD.

And if smartphones aren’t your thing and you still prefer standard PDAs, you can get a free Palm® Universal Wireless Keyboard with the purchase of a Palm® Tungsten™ E2 handheld.