However, as for the goodwill – it doesn’t really matter anymore.  Retail is rapidly shrinking in importance for TiVo.  They now have more MSO subscribers than retail – and the MSO numbers are increasingly rapidly while the retail numbers are still decreasing.  And that’s before deals like ONO and Charter hit stride.  On top of that only 55% of retail subscriptions are paying ongoing fees.

Retail numbers will hopefully benefit from the Comcast VOD deal as Comcast will be promoting TiVo and installing them for free on request, and the units will use the retail SKU, but that’s really more of a unique MSO/retail hybrid.  Given the numbers Virgin Media alone plans to generate over the next few years, retail would have to increase 4-5x just to match them – and then you have all the other MSOs.

For better or for worse it seems clear that retail is of decrease importance to TiVo’s business and any negative impact there is therefore also less important over time.  I don’t think TiVo is going to ditch retail any time soon, especially with the Comcast deal, since retail is the one market where they have complete control.  It is something of a marketing tool for them: “Look at what we can do.”  But product development will focus on the MSOs first, then retail – which we’ve already seen with the Premiere Elite, first launched as the Q for MSOs, and the Preview, MSO-only.