BD is winning, strongly, in Japan – even more so than in the US.

In Europe neither format has set the world on fire, but Blu-ray has been in the lead and seems to be picking up faster than HD DVD. BD also leads in Australia and New Zealand.

I think there is one event that would decisively end the war – if Universal dropped their HD DVD exclusivity and released content on BD. Once that happens, it is over – there is no reason to buy HD DVD after that

There are other events that would have a major impact and *possibly* end the war, forcing Universal’s hand. Such as a major retailer, like Wal*Mart and/or Best Buy, deciding to back Blu-ray exclusively. Warner and/or Paramount dropping HD DVD and supporting BD exclusively. Someone releasing a sub-$300 BD player for the holidays, defeating any price advantage.

But I don’t think any of those big moves are likely – except perhaps the sub-$300 player. I have some hope that some vendor, probably Sony, will push out a low-end box to compete with Toshiba’s low-end HD DVD deck.

I do think Universal will crack eventually, as they have a responsibility to their shareholders and they’re watching the competition make more money on hi-def releases due to the larger market for BD. They’re single-handedly supporting the HD DVD market – they *are* the long pole in the tent. Which is why I’m sure the rest of the HD DVD camp will do everything in their power to keep Universal releasing only HD DVD. Toshiba absolutely needs Universal – but Universal doesn’t need Toshiba.